trader profile

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

0x0c0e270cf879583d6a0142fc817e05b768d0434e
Open MV$957.3K65 positions
Open PnL+$78.2K8.9% on basis
Realized PnL+$56.0K76 closed
Hit rate91%Wilson lower 82%
Volume observed$2.16M456 trades · 154 markets
Current rank—last trade 21h 5m ago

Open book

Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
Market · OutcomeSizeAvg costCurrentΔ%MVPnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Noin 24d226,28195.6¢97.4¢+1.8%$220.3K+$3.9K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Noin 24d254,86767.8¢83.5¢+23.1%$212.8K+$40.0K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Noin 9d150,02391.9¢97.3¢+5.9%$146.0K+$8.1K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Noin 55d111,59052.5¢66.0¢+25.7%$73.6K+$15.1K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Noin 24d70,00298.1¢97.7¢-0.4%$68.4K-$304
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June…Noin 24d70,51283.3¢90.5¢+8.6%$63.8K+$5.1K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Noin 116d32,60391.0¢92.5¢+1.6%$30.2K+$489
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Noin 208d32,45080.2¢81.5¢+1.6%$26.4K+$414
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Noin 1d18,52496.1¢97.7¢+1.6%$18.1K+$287
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in…Yesin 55d14,98496.2¢96.7¢+0.5%$14.5K+$69
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?Yesin 86d10,37491.0¢94.3¢+3.7%$9.8K+$345
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Noin 208d10,00066.0¢84.5¢+28.0%$8.4K+$1.8K
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential no…Yesin 885d592,8880.8¢1.4¢+72.8%$8.0K+$3.4K
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Noin 208d14,21065.0¢47.5¢-26.9%$6.7K-$2.5K
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?Noin 150d6,05693.1¢96.0¢+3.1%$5.8K+$175
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Noin 24d7,58865.8¢71.5¢+8.7%$5.4K+$434
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d29,45550.0¢16.0¢-68.1%$4.7K-$10.0K
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d21,0130.8¢15.6¢+1890.5%$3.3K+$3.1K
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominat…Yesin 885d217,5820.8¢1.3¢+60.0%$2.7K+$1.0K
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ma…Noin 55d2,73696.3¢97.3¢+1.0%$2.7K+$27
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July…Noin 55d3,20072.0¢82.5¢+14.6%$2.6K+$336
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomi…Yesin 885d10,00050.0¢25.1¢-49.7%$2.5K-$2.5K
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom…Yesin 885d147,6650.8¢1.7¢+111.2%$2.4K+$1.3K
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina…Yesin 885d6,00050.0¢30.1¢-39.7%$1.8K-$1.2K
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin…Yesin 885d6,0000.8¢25.4¢+3145.0%$1.5K+$1.5K
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d22,1310.8¢5.5¢+597.6%$1.2K+$1.0K
Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?Noin 208d1,35086.0¢88.5¢+2.9%$1.2K+$34
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d94,5380.8¢1.3¢+60.0%$1.2K+$443
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presi…Yesin 885d10,0000.8¢9.7¢+1135.3%$965+$887
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yesin 208d1,30548.6¢68.7¢+41.3%$896+$262
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d53,1440.8¢1.7¢+111.2%$877+$462
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom…Yesin 885d10,0000.8¢7.8¢+892.1%$775+$697
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d21,5320.8¢2.9¢+277.6%$635+$467
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d27,6740.8¢2.3¢+188.0%$623+$406
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominat…Yesin 885d39,3370.8¢1.6¢+98.4%$610+$302
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomi…Yesin 885d10,0000.8¢5.1¢+546.4%$505+$427
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by Dece…Noin 208d77859.0¢62.5¢+5.9%$486+$27
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential no…Yesin 885d10,0000.8¢4.5¢+469.6%$445+$367
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential no…Yesin 885d6,0000.8¢6.6¢+744.9%$396+$349
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yesin 208d2,00823.0¢19.0¢-17.4%$382-$80
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d22,5040.8¢1.7¢+111.2%$371+$196
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d30,1280.8¢1.1¢+47.2%$346+$111
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d30,1280.8¢1.1¢+47.2%$346+$111
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomi…Yesin 885d10,0000.8¢3.1¢+303.2%$315+$237
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential…Yesin 885d5,5750.8¢4.8¢+508.0%$265+$221
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d13,9550.8¢1.8¢+124.0%$244+$135
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomi…Yesin 885d10,0000.8¢2.4¢+200.8%$235+$157
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential no…Yesin 885d10,0000.8¢2.1¢+173.9%$214+$136
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomina…Yesin 885d10,0000.8¢1.9¢+149.6%$195+$117
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nom…Yesin 885d6,0000.8¢2.9¢+264.8%$171+$124
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomin…Yesin 885d10,0000.8¢1.7¢+111.2%$165+$87
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential…Yesin 885d6,0000.8¢2.5¢+225.1%$152+$106
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomi…Yesin 885d6,0000.8¢2.1¢+162.4%$123+$76
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential…Yesin 885d10,0000.8¢1.1¢+34.4%$105+$27
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?Yesin 17d10085.0¢91.5¢+7.6%$92+$7
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential no…Yesin 885d6,0000.8¢1.4¢+72.8%$81+$34
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential n…Yesin 885d6,0000.8¢1.3¢+60.0%$75+$28
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Noin 126d4195.9¢92.1¢-4.0%$38-$2
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Jun…Yesin 11d2097.9¢98.3¢+0.3%$20+$0
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?Noin 209d295.2¢98.0¢+2.9%$2+$0
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Noin 208d292.8¢93.8¢+1.0%$2+$0
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Noin 208d287.4¢91.9¢+5.1%$2+$0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNoin 150d364.0¢55.5¢-13.3%$1-$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseYesin 150d320.9¢17.5¢-16.4%$1-$0
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomi…Yesin 885d100.8¢3.3¢+315.9%$0+$0

Realized history

Closed positions via avg-cost matching
Market · OutcomeQtyAvg costAvg exitRealizedViaClosed
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election i…No2,26198.8¢99.7¢+$20trade2026-06-05 02:28 UTC
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by…No28,88398.4¢100.0¢+$464resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day b…No4,73496.8¢100.0¢+$152resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?No8,84196.4¢100.0¢+$318resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States block…No774.0¢100.0¢+$2resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ma…No193,17091.9¢100.0¢+$15.6Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No229,05899.2¢100.0¢+$1.8Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day b…No41687.9¢100.0¢+$51resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Eric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31?Yes5,73799.9¢100.0¢+$6resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?No46,38790.5¢100.0¢+$4.4Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No31689.9¢100.0¢+$32resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?No5,41294.0¢0.0¢-$5.1Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz bet…No26897.4¢99.8¢+$6trade2026-05-29 21:48 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ma…No10,00091.8¢99.2¢+$737trade2026-05-28 02:39 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ma…No6,00091.8¢99.2¢+$442trade2026-05-27 19:24 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ma…No39791.8¢99.3¢+$30trade2026-05-27 19:24 UTC
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes195.8¢99.9¢+$0trade2026-05-27 04:25 UTC
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?No5,80093.1¢96.0¢+$168trade2026-05-26 21:13 UTC
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No44,66589.9¢99.1¢+$4.1Ktrade2026-05-26 19:25 UTC
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No30,00089.9¢99.1¢+$2.8Ktrade2026-05-26 19:09 UTC
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No79089.9¢99.0¢+$72trade2026-05-26 17:58 UTC
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No4,96489.9¢99.0¢+$451trade2026-05-26 15:17 UTC
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No7589.9¢98.9¢+$7trade2026-05-26 01:32 UTC
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes1,86095.8¢100.0¢+$79resolution2026-05-26 00:00 UTC
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?No2,96196.1¢100.0¢+$115resolution2026-05-26 00:00 UTC
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?No40097.6¢99.5¢+$8trade2026-05-25 02:07 UTC
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz betw…No97494.7¢100.0¢+$52resolution2026-05-24 00:00 UTC
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No1,04194.6¢100.0¢+$56resolution2026-05-20 00:00 UTC
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes88291.8¢100.0¢+$73resolution2026-05-20 00:00 UTC
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes9732.0¢0.0¢-$31resolution2026-05-20 00:00 UTC
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No9177.8¢100.0¢+$20resolution2026-05-20 00:00 UTC
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No2,17090.1¢100.0¢+$215resolution2026-05-20 00:00 UTC
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes22384.7¢100.0¢+$34resolution2026-05-20 00:00 UTC
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No2,25392.0¢100.0¢+$181resolution2026-05-20 00:00 UTC
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes5028.6¢0.0¢-$14resolution2026-05-20 00:00 UTC
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season…No2,44791.7¢100.0¢+$203resolution2026-05-20 00:00 UTC
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No1,61386.4¢100.0¢+$220resolution2026-05-20 00:00 UTC
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No8,06781.4¢100.0¢+$1.5Kresolution2026-05-20 00:00 UTC
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No9216.8¢0.0¢-$16resolution2026-05-20 00:00 UTC
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?No10,82791.0¢94.0¢+$325trade2026-05-16 19:28 UTC
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?No5491.0¢98.7¢+$4trade2026-05-16 18:41 UTC
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the…Yes296.0¢98.0¢+$0trade2026-05-16 15:06 UTC
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?No7,07496.8¢97.8¢+$72trade2026-05-16 14:10 UTC
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?No668.0¢0.0¢-$4resolution2026-05-15 00:00 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?No147,57190.9¢100.0¢+$13.4Kresolution2026-05-15 00:00 UTC
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Yes25,24996.0¢100.0¢+$1.0Kresolution2026-05-15 00:00 UTC
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?No43399.4¢100.0¢+$3resolution2026-05-15 00:00 UTC
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?No1,67697.1¢100.0¢+$49resolution2026-05-14 00:00 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?No2,00090.9¢99.7¢+$175trade2026-05-13 21:38 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?No2,00090.9¢99.7¢+$175trade2026-05-13 19:46 UTC
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Recent trades

Last 50 ingested fills
Time UTCSideSizePriceMarket
2026-06-05 02:33 UTCSELL60019.0¢Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes
2026-06-05 02:28 UTCSELL2,26199.7¢Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?No
2026-06-05 02:24 UTCSELL772.4¢Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominati…Yes
2026-06-05 02:18 UTCSELL10,0001.2¢Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presiden…Yes
2026-06-05 02:18 UTCSELL2,6791.6¢Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes
2026-06-05 02:14 UTCSELL6,0000.7¢Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes
2026-06-05 02:11 UTCSELL6,0001.0¢Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nominati…Yes
2026-06-05 02:11 UTCSELL6,0001.0¢Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nominat…Yes
2026-06-05 02:10 UTCSELL6,0003.2¢Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nominati…Yes
2026-06-05 02:04 UTCBUY10,45382.0¢US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No
2026-06-05 01:56 UTCBUY7,05697.2¢US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?No
2026-06-05 01:56 UTCBUY9484.0¢Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026…Yes
2026-06-05 01:55 UTCBUY483.0¢Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of…No
2026-06-05 01:55 UTCBUY14383.0¢Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of t…Yes
2026-06-05 01:50 UTCBUY10082.0¢Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of t…Yes
2026-06-04 20:21 UTCBUY9,00085.0¢Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No
2026-06-04 16:47 UTCBUY9,52496.1¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No
2026-06-03 17:31 UTCBUY1099.8¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No
2026-06-03 04:08 UTCBUY18,81899.5¢Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor pr…No
2026-06-03 04:08 UTCBUY1,05899.2¢Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor pr…No
2026-06-02 17:48 UTCBUY897.5¢US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?No
2026-06-01 23:53 UTCBUY7895.8¢Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Mai…Yes
2026-06-01 18:00 UTCBUY54698.3¢Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No
2026-06-01 17:26 UTCBUY26,49497.0¢US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?No
2026-06-01 14:31 UTCBUY1062.0¢Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No
2026-06-01 13:49 UTCBUY53,15076.0¢Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No
2026-06-01 13:48 UTCBUY2,19259.0¢Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No
2026-06-01 13:21 UTCSELL30,1280.6¢Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes
2026-06-01 13:20 UTCSELL30,1280.7¢Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes
2026-06-01 13:18 UTCSELL30,1280.9¢Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes
2026-06-01 13:17 UTCSELL24,6591.2¢Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes
2026-06-01 13:17 UTCSELL17,5551.6¢Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes
2026-06-01 13:16 UTCSELL6,9081.6¢Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Ele…Yes
2026-06-01 13:16 UTCSELL2,1502.1¢Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes
2026-06-01 13:15 UTCSELL20,9805.2¢Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Elec…Yes
2026-06-01 13:15 UTCSELL3,11615.8¢Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes
2026-06-01 12:59 UTCBUY22,13998.0¢Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No
2026-06-01 12:59 UTCBUY2,92198.0¢Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No
2026-06-01 12:44 UTCBUY4,42390.0¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30,…No
2026-06-01 02:33 UTCBUY200,00099.8¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?NoResolved
2026-06-01 02:32 UTCBUY47359.0¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December…No
2026-06-01 02:31 UTCBUY3,20072.0¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31,…No
2026-06-01 02:31 UTCBUY4,96787.0¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30,…No
2026-06-01 02:30 UTCBUY2,09097.3¢Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor prim…No
2026-06-01 02:30 UTCBUY1597.2¢Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor prim…No
2026-06-01 02:29 UTCBUY6,82798.8¢Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?No
2026-06-01 02:27 UTCBUY9,42080.0¢US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No
2026-06-01 02:27 UTCBUY7,86996.3¢US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?No
2026-06-01 02:25 UTCBUY2,07896.4¢Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Mai…Yes
2026-06-01 02:25 UTCBUY31296.1¢Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Mai…Yes