Follow the smart money on Polymarket.

Where the leaders are actually betting.

We ingest Polymarket's top-50 wallets by PnL, snapshot what they currently hold, and aggregate consensus per market. The table below ranks unresolved markets by how much of the leader pool is on each side, weighted by how statistically real each leader's edge is.

§A · smart-money consensus

Signals

Top consensusNewest entriesBiggest deltasAny horizonEnds ≤24hEnds ≤7d

Markets where the top 50 wallets (30-day leaderboard) currently hold a net-long position. Higher consensus score = more leaders agree, weighted by their Wilson-lower hit rate. Not financial advice — see methodology.

Strategy gate is open. MirrorTopN at 51.1% hit rate (Wilson lower 50.7%) over 58,758 mirror trades — 0 signals are BUY-flagged. See backtest →
Market · OutcomeSignalConsensusLeadersAvg entryCurrentΔ vs entryNotional
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Noin 24d
latest entry 17h 30m ago
WATCH41
60%
3 / 388.7¢97.7¢+10.1%$137.3K
Epstein client list released by June 30?Noin 24d
latest entry 2d ago
WATCH40
58%
3 / 367.5¢95.8¢+41.8%$12.2K
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yesin 885d
latest entry 17h 30m ago
WATCH38
73%
3 / 349.9¢30.1¢-39.6%$68.2K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Noin 116d
latest entry 4d ago
WATCH36
56%
3 / 389.8¢91.5¢+1.8%$73.7K
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yesin 150d
latest entry 20m ago
WATCH36
63%
3 / 315.8¢21.6¢+36.7%$25.3K
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yesin 885d
latest entry 1d ago
WATCH33
58%
3 / 30.8¢1.3¢+55.0%$3.1K
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No
latest entry 1d ago
WATCH31
62%
3 / 371.4¢59.5¢-16.7%$6.3K
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Noin 7d
latest entry 4d ago
WATCH30
52%
3 / 349.7¢51.5¢+3.5%$14.6K
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Max WiskandtDiego Dedura-Palomeroin 3d
latest entry 3d ago
WATCH29
55%
3 / 377.7¢98.3¢+26.5%$8.9K
Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja SemenistajaDarja Semenistajain 4d
latest entry 1d ago
WATCH28
53%
3 / 376.7¢44.9¢-41.5%$27.4K
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado RockiesSan Francisco Giantsin 3h
latest entry 6d ago
WATCH28
53%
5 / 565.1¢42.5¢-34.7%$13.2K
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno BustaRafael Jodarin 1d
latest entry 5d ago
WATCH28
53%
4 / 467.1¢89.5¢+33.4%$158.7K
Birmingham: Nao Hibino vs Janice TjenJanice Tjenin 3d
latest entry 3d ago
WATCH28
55%
3 / 383.2¢90.5¢+8.7%$5.0K
Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo RomanoClement Chidekhin 3d
latest entry 3d ago
WATCH28
55%
3 / 359.8¢26.5¢-55.7%$2.2K
Makarska: Miriam Bulgaru vs Noma Noha AkugueMiriam Bulgaruin 3d
latest entry 3d ago
WATCH28
55%
3 / 319.5¢5.0¢-74.3%$842
Foggia: Laura Mair vs Yiming DangYiming Dangin 3d
latest entry 2d ago
WATCH28
55%
3 / 347.0¢36.5¢-22.4%$3.8K
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie SwanKatie Swanin 2d
latest entry 1d ago
WATCH27
53%
3 / 355.7¢98.6¢+77.0%$21.1K
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea BoskovicRobin Montgomeryin 4d
latest entry 1d ago
WATCH27
53%
3 / 336.7¢8.0¢-78.2%$3.5K
Prostejov: Viktor Durasovic vs Norbert GombosNorbert Gombosin 3d
latest entry 3d ago
WATCH27
53%
4 / 455.9¢33.0¢-41.0%$11.8K
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Noin 5d
latest entry 4d ago
WATCH27
52%
3 / 332.3¢31.5¢-2.5%$5.2K
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio NavaGuy Den Oudenin 6d
latest entry 5h 40m ago
WATCH27
53%
3 / 352.6¢5.5¢-89.5%$1.9K
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael CollignonMatteo Arnaldiin 3h
latest entry 6d ago
WATCH27
53%
4 / 452.4¢55.5¢+6.0%$55.7K
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Soxin 3h
latest entry 6d ago
WATCH27
52%
6 / 668.6¢97.5¢+42.0%$48.2K
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yesin 208d
latest entry 2d ago
WATCH27
40%
3 / 323.7¢21.5¢-9.2%$8.1K
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek BartonRoberto Bautista Agutin 2d
latest entry 3d ago
WATCH27
53%
4 / 427.8¢42.5¢+52.7%$32.1K
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yesin 1d
latest entry 20m ago
WATCH27
59%
4 / 458.0¢62.5¢+7.8%$32.9K
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Shintaro MochizukiSho Shimabukuroin 2d
latest entry 2d ago
WATCH26
53%
3 / 354.8¢88.5¢+61.4%$21.7K
Perugia: Luca Nardi vs Remy BertolaLuca Nardiin 5d
latest entry 23h ago
WATCH26
53%
4 / 441.5¢11.5¢-72.3%$7.2K
Birmingham: Mackenzie McDonald vs Nicolai Budkov KjaerMackenzie McDonaldin 2d
latest entry 3d ago
WATCH26
53%
4 / 458.1¢90.5¢+55.9%$24.0K
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 202…Noin 24d
latest entry 4d ago
WATCH26
41%
3 / 475.6¢91.5¢+21.0%$126.6K
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd HarrisYunchaokete Buin 2d
latest entry 3d ago
WATCH26
55%
3 / 344.6¢99.0¢+122.0%$6.4K
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican…Yesin 3d
latest entry 10h 30m ago
WATCH26
51%
3 / 366.7¢65.5¢-1.9%$3.7K
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?Noin 6d
latest entry 4d ago
WATCH26
52%
3 / 363.2¢64.5¢+2.0%$3.5K
Birmingham: James McCabe vs Kamil MajchrzakJames McCabein 3d
latest entry 2d ago
WATCH26
53%
3 / 313.1¢2.5¢-80.9%$428
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit KoprivaVitaliy Sachkoin 5d
latest entry 1d ago
WATCH25
53%
3 / 342.3¢53.5¢+26.5%$34.9K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Noin 208d
latest entry 20m ago
WATCH25
42%
4 / 471.3¢83.5¢+17.1%$250.2K
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astrosin 4d
latest entry 2d ago
WATCH25
45%
4 / 542.2¢1.1¢-97.5%$414
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie SwanAjla Tomljanovicin 2d
latest entry 1d ago
WATCH25
53%
3 / 324.1¢1.5¢-94.0%$428
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Noin 24d
latest entry 1h 30m ago
WATCH25
42%
3 / 452.5¢55.5¢+5.6%$81.7K
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Noin 24d
latest entry 2d ago
WATCH25
42%
3 / 396.7¢97.3¢+0.6%$17.6K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Noin 24d
latest entry 17h 30m ago
WATCH25
44%
3 / 395.8¢97.3¢+1.5%$346.6K
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesToronto Blue Jaysin 3d
latest entry 2d ago
WATCH24
45%
5 / 541.9¢8.5¢-79.7%$9.0K
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Emerson JonesMika Stojsavljevicin 2d
latest entry 3d ago
WATCH24
52%
3 / 343.9¢88.5¢+101.8%$12.8K
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Piratesin 3h
latest entry 5d ago
WATCH24
47%
7 / 868.2¢92.0¢+34.9%$83.8K
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?Noin 6d
latest entry 4d ago
WATCH24
52%
3 / 368.6¢69.5¢+1.3%$1.6K
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yesin 208d
latest entry 17h 30m ago
WATCH24
55%
3 / 317.7¢19.0¢+7.2%$665
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes
latest entry 2d ago
WATCH24
50%
3 / 39.9¢73.5¢+643.8%$17.5K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Yesin 25d
latest entry 4d ago
WATCH23
31%
3 / 468.7¢75.8¢+10.3%$91.6K
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Oriolesin 1d
latest entry 5d ago
WATCH23
45%
5 / 675.1¢98.6¢+31.2%$14.4K
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Emerson JonesEmerson Jonesin 2d
latest entry 3d ago
WATCH23
51%
3 / 366.7¢84.5¢+26.8%$2.7K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 m…Yesin 11d
latest entry 1d ago
WATCH23
40%
3 / 497.9¢98.3¢+0.4%$221.5K
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Noin 55d
latest entry 1d ago
WATCH23
56%
3 / 396.8¢97.1¢+0.3%$10.1K
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar VukicJack Pinnington Jonesin 2d
latest entry 3d ago
WATCH23
41%
3 / 437.8¢6.0¢-84.1%$1.5K
Miami Marlins vs. Washington NationalsMiami Marlinsin 3d
latest entry 2d ago
WATCH23
45%
6 / 650.0¢91.5¢+83.1%$116.4K
Birmingham: Mary Stoiana vs Lulu SunMary Stoianain 2d
latest entry 3d ago
WATCH23
41%
4 / 457.0¢86.0¢+50.9%$13.2K
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysLos Angeles Angelsin 3h
latest entry 6d ago
WATCH22
52%
3 / 340.4¢40.5¢+0.3%$2.0K
Prostejov: Viktor Durasovic vs Norbert GombosViktor Durasovicin 3d
latest entry 3d ago
WATCH22
41%
3 / 457.3¢67.0¢+16.9%$9.6K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYesin 150d
latest entry 4d ago
WATCH22
49%
3 / 333.5¢34.5¢+3.0%$12.0K
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockiesin 1d
latest entry 5d ago
WATCH22
41%
6 / 854.6¢96.5¢+76.7%$22.4K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yesin 9d
latest entry 20m ago
WATCH22
41%
4 / 515.4¢11.5¢-25.2%$49.2K
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Oriolesin 3h
latest entry 5d ago
WATCH22
46%
7 / 845.3¢39.6¢-12.6%$189.1K
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockiesin 3h
latest entry 6d ago
WATCH22
44%
4 / 520.0¢57.5¢+187.9%$16.3K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yesin 24d
latest entry 1d ago
WATCH22
35%
3 / 527.3¢15.0¢-45.1%$9.4K
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver TarvetColeman Wongin 2d
latest entry 3d ago
WATCH22
42%
4 / 565.5¢86.0¢+31.3%$28.8K
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White SoxDetroit Tigersin 3h
latest entry 6d ago
WATCH22
45%
5 / 632.6¢2.5¢-92.3%$1.9K
New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersNew York Metsin 3d
latest entry 3d ago
WATCH22
43%
6 / 655.0¢22.5¢-59.1%$44.4K
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver TarvetOliver Tarvetin 2d
latest entry 3d ago
WATCH22
42%
4 / 527.6¢14.0¢-49.3%$10.3K
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksLos Angeles Dodgersin 4d
latest entry 2d ago
WATCH22
45%
7 / 775.3¢92.5¢+22.9%$121.9K
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesToronto Blue Jaysin 4d
latest entry 1d ago
WATCH22
43%
4 / 529.4¢7.5¢-74.5%$2.5K
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Noin 208d
latest entry 20m ago
WATCH21
40%
3 / 383.1¢84.5¢+1.6%$112.2K
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinalsin 3d
latest entry 2d ago
WATCH21
38%
4 / 638.6¢4.5¢-88.3%$1.0K
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosMilwaukee Brewersin 3h
latest entry 5d ago
WATCH21
42%
4 / 540.0¢1.3¢-96.8%$344
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna KalinskayaAnna Kalinskayain 2d
latest entry 4d ago
WATCH21
42%
4 / 536.8¢39.0¢+6.0%$109.3K
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria KasatkinaDaria Kasatkinain 3h
latest entry 6d ago
WATCH21
52%
5 / 53.8¢3.5¢-10.1%$1.7K
New York Yankees vs. AthleticsNew York Yankeesin 1d
latest entry 5d ago
WATCH21
47%
8 / 843.4¢12.6¢-71.1%$15.7K
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesSan Diego Padresin 3d
latest entry 2d ago
WATCH21
44%
5 / 630.1¢15.5¢-48.6%$31.5K
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mika StojsavljevicMika Stojsavljevicin 6d
latest entry 4h 20m ago
WATCH20
40%
4 / 435.6¢44.0¢+23.5%$39.9K
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankeesin 4d
latest entry 1d ago
WATCH20
43%
4 / 534.6¢7.5¢-78.3%$11.4K
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Philliesin 3d
latest entry 2d ago
WATCH20
44%
6 / 661.2¢84.5¢+38.0%$62.2K
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the S…Yesin 1d
latest entry 3d ago
WATCH20
39%
3 / 480.1¢10.5¢-86.9%$1.8K
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026?Yesin 15d
latest entry 1d ago
WATCH20
73%
3 / 31.8¢1.3¢-32.0%$20
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astrosin 3h
latest entry 6d ago
WATCH20
40%
7 / 950.6¢44.5¢-12.1%$43.5K
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Darja SemenistajaDarja Semenistajain 6d
latest entry 3h 10m ago
WATCH20
40%
4 / 433.1¢71.5¢+115.9%$55.0K
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsChicago White Soxin 3d
latest entry 2d ago
WATCH20
40%
7 / 841.0¢6.5¢-84.2%$5.2K
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yesin 208d
latest entry 1d ago
20
44%
3 / 340.0¢67.4¢+68.7%$3.7K
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsTexas Rangersin 3d
latest entry 2d ago
20
46%
6 / 646.0¢95.5¢+107.8%$59.6K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Noin 24d
latest entry 4d ago
20
46%
3 / 328.6¢39.0¢+36.3%$27.9K
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Raysin 3h
latest entry 5d ago
20
39%
6 / 831.9¢1.5¢-95.3%$311
Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsMiami Marlinsin 3h
latest entry 5d ago
20
41%
8 / 1044.9¢3.9¢-91.3%$18.3K
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yesin 885d
latest entry 1d ago
19
47%
3 / 35.0¢5.9¢+18.1%$3.5K
San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationalsin 3h
latest entry 5d ago
19
38%
5 / 742.5¢97.8¢+129.8%$48.1K
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astrosin 5d
latest entry 1d ago
19
40%
4 / 419.4¢98.2¢+406.4%$47.1K
New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersNew York Metsin 4d
latest entry 2d ago
19
38%
5 / 721.0¢2.3¢-89.3%$1.1K
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner TienFlavio Cobolliin 3h
latest entry 6d ago
19
35%
4 / 693.0¢97.7¢+5.0%$51.9K
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander ZverevJakub Mensikin 6d
latest entry 5h ago
19
41%
5 / 616.5¢2.5¢-84.6%$11.5K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yesin 1d
latest entry 20m ago
19
42%
5 / 69.7¢2.1¢-79.0%$11.1K
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles DodgersPhiladelphia Philliesin 1d
latest entry 5d ago
19
39%
6 / 839.8¢79.5¢+99.8%$154.0K
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersArizona Diamondbacksin 3h
latest entry 6d ago
19
40%
7 / 942.0¢22.5¢-46.4%$212.8K
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinalsin 2d
latest entry 3d ago
19
42%
5 / 531.8¢13.5¢-57.6%$6.9K
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Soxin 3d
latest entry 2d ago
19
36%
4 / 633.0¢5.5¢-83.4%$1.4K
100 signals tracked · 0 green · 84 yellow · 10-min recomputeWilson-weighted · 30-day leader pool