Follow the smart money on Polymarket.

Where the leaders are actually betting.

We ingest Polymarket's top-50 wallets by PnL, snapshot what they currently hold, and aggregate consensus per market. The table below ranks unresolved markets by how much of the leader pool is on each side, weighted by how statistically real each leader's edge is.

§A · smart-money consensus

Signals

Top consensusNewest entriesBiggest deltasAny horizonEnds ≤24hEnds ≤7d

Markets where the top 50 wallets (30-day leaderboard) currently hold a net-long position. Higher consensus score = more leaders agree, weighted by their Wilson-lower hit rate. Not financial advice — see methodology.

Strategy gate is open. MirrorTopN at 51.0% hit rate (Wilson lower 50.7%) over 98,882 mirror trades — 0 signals are BUY-flagged. See backtest →
Market · OutcomeSignalConsensusLeadersAvg entryCurrentΔ vs entryNotional
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Noin 40d
latest entry 80d ago
WATCH36
56%
3 / 389.8¢91.5¢+1.8%$73.7K
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic…Noin 74d
latest entry 65d ago
WATCH35
63%
3 / 326.2¢54.2¢+106.6%$3.8K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseYesin 74d
latest entry 61d ago
WATCH34
68%
3 / 318.8¢18.5¢-1.8%$5.1K
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yesin 44d
latest entry 61d ago
WATCH32
73%
3 / 33.7¢24.8¢+565.3%$3.2K
Will South America win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes
latest entry 64d ago
WATCH32
63%
3 / 320.6¢19.5¢-5.2%$1.3K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseYesin 74d
latest entry 61d ago
WATCH31
68%
3 / 316.6¢1.9¢-88.2%$270
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yesin 132d
latest entry 62d ago
WATCH31
56%
3 / 339.4¢28.0¢-28.9%$2.1K
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No
latest entry 67d ago
WATCH29
57%
3 / 371.5¢65.5¢-8.4%$7.2K
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 61d ago
WATCH28
68%
3 / 30.6¢2.1¢+228.5%$3.0K
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 61d ago
WATCH28
68%
3 / 30.9¢2.8¢+190.4%$2.7K
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 61d ago
WATCH27
68%
3 / 30.6¢1.8¢+203.1%$2.5K
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 61d ago
WATCH26
68%
3 / 31.0¢4.3¢+356.1%$3.6K
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 61d ago
WATCH26
68%
3 / 30.8¢9.4¢+1118.4%$8.0K
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yesin 132d
latest entry 77d ago
WATCH25
56%
3 / 318.6¢20.5¢+10.3%$855
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 61d ago
WATCH25
68%
3 / 30.8¢7.1¢+820.0%$5.1K
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 70d ago
WATCH24
70%
3 / 31.0¢1.6¢+59.2%$559
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yesin 132d
latest entry 62d ago
WATCH24
56%
3 / 316.7¢9.5¢-43.1%$2.7K
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom…Yesin 132d
latest entry 62d ago
WATCH24
68%
3 / 31.6¢1.0¢-39.0%$279
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes
latest entry 78d ago
WATCH24
50%
3 / 39.9¢73.5¢+643.8%$17.5K
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 61d ago
WATCH23
68%
3 / 30.7¢6.6¢+775.1%$2.9K
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yesin 44d
latest entry 64d ago
WATCH23
51%
3 / 33.1¢2.4¢-22.9%$508
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yesin 132d
latest entry 65d ago
WATCH23
60%
3 / 38.2¢17.5¢+112.6%$257
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYesin 74d
latest entry 80d ago
WATCH22
49%
3 / 333.5¢34.5¢+3.0%$12.0K
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Noin 132d
latest entry 77d ago
WATCH22
40%
3 / 383.1¢84.5¢+1.6%$112.2K
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No
latest entry 64d ago
WATCH22
62%
3 / 398.8¢98.0¢-0.8%$38.1K
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential…Yesin 44d
latest entry 66d ago
WATCH20
45%
3 / 443.6¢51.5¢+18.0%$90.5K
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Yesin 107d
latest entry 70d ago
19
52%
3 / 36.9¢4.7¢-32.5%$243
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 60d ago
19
47%
3 / 30.8¢1.3¢+60.4%$1.5K
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yesin 44d
latest entry 62d ago
18
65%
3 / 36.8¢14.8¢+116.5%$443
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseNoin 74d
latest entry 80d ago
17
49%
3 / 398.1¢97.5¢-0.6%$918
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 809d
latest entry 60d ago
17
47%
3 / 30.8¢14.5¢+1765.9%$14.4K
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 60d ago
17
47%
3 / 30.8¢1.3¢+60.0%$898
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominati…Yesin 809d
latest entry 60d ago
16
47%
3 / 30.8¢1.1¢+34.8%$593
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 809d
latest entry 80d ago
16
45%
3 / 31.8¢1.1¢-36.2%$219
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 60d ago
16
47%
3 / 31.0¢1.9¢+99.1%$989
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 80d ago
15
27%
3 / 420.6¢25.4¢+23.8%$15.8K
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yesin 132d
latest entry 80d ago
15
37%
3 / 334.9¢16.5¢-52.7%$21.0K
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yesin 222d
latest entry 78d ago
15
45%
3 / 35.7¢6.5¢+14.4%$554
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yesin 132d
latest entry 60d ago
15
31%
3 / 423.5¢21.5¢-8.4%$9.3K
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yesin 74d
latest entry 77d ago
14
38%
3 / 415.4¢12.8¢-16.5%$13.9K
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 809d
latest entry 80d ago
14
34%
3 / 36.0¢15.8¢+164.8%$13.2K
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 809d
latest entry 61d ago
14
38%
3 / 30.8¢4.3¢+465.8%$6.1K
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?Yesin 252d
latest entry 64d ago
14
51%
3 / 30.7¢1.8¢+159.8%$37
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNoin 74d
latest entry 61d ago
14
51%
3 / 419.8¢57.5¢+190.4%$198
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 809d
latest entry 78d ago
13
29%
3 / 30.8¢5.5¢+597.6%$1.2K
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?Yesin 132d
latest entry 62d ago
13
65%
3 / 32.3¢1.6¢-30.1%$8
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yesin 222d
latest entry 78d ago
13
45%
3 / 33.6¢5.0¢+36.4%$303
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 62d ago
13
33%
3 / 417.3¢23.8¢+37.5%$6.8K
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nominati…Yesin 809d
latest entry 62d ago
13
44%
3 / 31.1¢2.3¢+100.8%$1.3K
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes
latest entry 80d ago
13
35%
3 / 467.7¢64.5¢-4.8%$953
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 61d ago
13
38%
3 / 30.8¢1.3¢+60.0%$459
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 809d
latest entry 61d ago
13
38%
3 / 30.8¢1.4¢+77.7%$782
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yesin 132d
latest entry 62d ago
12
37%
3 / 342.5¢50.5¢+18.8%$10.0K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm…Yesin 74d
latest entry 60d ago
12
30%
3 / 382.3¢80.5¢-2.2%$37.0K
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 62d ago
12
44%
3 / 33.8¢4.7¢+23.9%$466
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yesin 222d
latest entry 79d ago
12
45%
3 / 34.4¢6.7¢+52.6%$185
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yesin 222d
latest entry 79d ago
11
45%
3 / 33.8¢4.3¢+14.7%$139
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Noin 132d
latest entry 80d ago
11
27%
4 / 535.8¢30.5¢-14.8%$14.9K
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 62d ago
11
35%
3 / 31.8¢1.8¢-2.7%$778
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No
latest entry 81d ago
11
23%
3 / 453.7¢59.5¢+10.7%$17.5K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Noin 132d
latest entry 62d ago
11
33%
3 / 375.5¢85.5¢+13.3%$110.8K
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Noin 133d
latest entry 80d ago
11
32%
3 / 337.4¢44.5¢+18.9%$547
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm…Noin 74d
latest entry 60d ago
10
30%
4 / 680.0¢80.5¢+0.6%$44.5K
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential…Yesin 809d
latest entry 62d ago
9
44%
3 / 34.8¢9.0¢+87.8%$246
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Noin 132d
latest entry 66d ago
9
33%
3 / 627.1¢20.0¢-26.5%$101
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Noin 132d
latest entry 67d ago
8
28%
3 / 387.2¢90.5¢+3.8%$1.43M
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yesin 50d
latest entry 80d ago
8
32%
3 / 316.5¢8.5¢-48.5%$236
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No
latest entry 80d ago
8
31%
3 / 351.4¢60.5¢+17.8%$40.0K
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31,…Noin 132d
latest entry 63d ago
8
22%
3 / 470.9¢73.5¢+3.6%$17.4K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Noin 132d
latest entry 60d ago
7
31%
4 / 468.6¢87.5¢+27.5%$375.3K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yesin 497d
latest entry 79d ago
7
18%
3 / 369.5¢78.5¢+13.0%$14.0K
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Noin 74d
latest entry 79d ago
7
21%
3 / 484.8¢85.3¢+0.6%$1.7K
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yesin 74d
latest entry 60d ago
6
51%
3 / 352.0¢88.9¢+70.9%$38.2K
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Noin 809d
latest entry 62d ago
6
24%
3 / 450.0¢83.3¢+66.5%$1.24M
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Noin 132d
latest entry 80d ago
6
45%
3 / 386.8¢93.5¢+7.7%$239.2K
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 809d
latest entry 60d ago
6
23%
4 / 448.4¢20.6¢-57.3%$291.5K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm…Noin 74d
latest entry 61d ago
6
37%
3 / 452.3¢56.5¢+8.1%$9.2K
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 60d ago
6
47%
3 / 30.8¢1.1¢+34.4%$484
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm…Yesin 74d
latest entry 66d ago
6
13%
3 / 719.8¢17.5¢-11.6%$10.3K
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yesin 107d
latest entry 70d ago
6
21%
3 / 43.1¢1.7¢-47.5%$89
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential…Yesin 809d
latest entry 61d ago
5
50%
3 / 30.5¢1.3¢+159.1%$52
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yesin 107d
latest entry 80d ago
5
13%
3 / 33.2¢3.5¢+7.3%$8.1K
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yesin 132d
latest entry 60d ago
5
21%
4 / 648.4¢36.5¢-24.7%$4.6K
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yesin 107d
latest entry 80d ago
5
13%
3 / 33.2¢1.6¢-51.5%$3.7K
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yesin 132d
latest entry 62d ago
5
33%
3 / 341.8¢54.5¢+30.5%$5.0K
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yesin 107d
latest entry 80d ago
5
13%
3 / 33.1¢3.6¢+16.9%$8.2K
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No
latest entry 61d ago
4
37%
3 / 433.9¢37.5¢+10.8%$7.8K
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yesin 107d
latest entry 80d ago
4
13%
3 / 33.6¢50.6¢+1298.5%$120.7K
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Noin 132d
latest entry 60d ago
4
12%
3 / 670.6¢63.5¢-10.0%$21.5K
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yesin 74d
latest entry 79d ago
4
28%
3 / 33.8¢5.7¢+49.2%$244
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?Yesin 71d
latest entry 80d ago
4
15%
3 / 310.0¢10.1¢+0.2%$525
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yesin 44d
latest entry 62d ago
3
50%
3 / 31.5¢1.8¢+21.4%$31
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yesin 809d
latest entry 60d ago
3
35%
4 / 435.2¢37.5¢+6.6%$33.9K
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Noin 74d
latest entry 61d ago
3
23%
3 / 359.1¢76.5¢+29.5%$101.4K
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Noin 132d
latest entry 60d ago
3
25%
3 / 390.3¢95.9¢+6.2%$167.0K
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?Yesin 71d
latest entry 80d ago
3
15%
3 / 313.1¢14.0¢+6.8%$435
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yesin 132d
latest entry 78d ago
2
13%
3 / 915.2¢16.5¢+8.6%$12.9K
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Noin 132d
latest entry 63d ago
2
25%
3 / 636.0¢27.0¢-25.0%$199
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?Yesin 71d
latest entry 80d ago
2
15%
3 / 325.9¢25.5¢-1.4%$1.9K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yesin 132d
latest entry 62d ago
2
6%
3 / 79.4¢9.5¢+1.3%$684
100 signals tracked · 0 green · 26 yellow · 10-min recomputeWilson-weighted · 30-day leader pool