trader profile

Soft-Lantern

0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
Open MV$727.2K85 positions
Open PnL-$27.2K-3.6% on basis
Realized PnL+$32.3K124 closed
Hit rate59%Wilson lower 50%
Volume observed$2.93M1,129 trades · 189 markets
Current rank#33 · 30dlast trade 1h 9m ago

Open book

Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
Market · OutcomeSizeAvg costCurrentΔ%MVPnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Noin 885d300,00050.0¢84.0¢+68.1%$252.2K+$102.2K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Noin 208d100,11471.8¢84.5¢+17.6%$84.6K+$12.7K
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Noin 208d66,95792.8¢94.0¢+1.2%$62.9K+$774
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Noin 208d64,91576.3¢81.5¢+6.8%$52.9K+$3.4K
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d300,00050.0¢16.0¢-68.1%$47.9K-$102.2K
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Noin 126d39,68390.9¢91.5¢+0.7%$36.3K+$242
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Noin 24d30,29395.2¢97.4¢+2.3%$29.5K+$660
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Noin 24d20,02097.6¢98.2¢+0.6%$19.6K+$110
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Noin 208d22,48583.9¢84.5¢+0.7%$19.0K+$133
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026…Noin 150d20,09881.0¢80.5¢-0.6%$16.2K-$99
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026…Yesin 150d15,12084.4¢81.5¢-3.4%$12.3K-$434
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Noin 24d12,39295.8¢98.8¢+3.1%$12.2K+$365
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Noin 24d8,95595.5¢97.0¢+1.5%$8.7K+$132
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yesin 9d74,69418.1¢9.5¢-47.5%$7.1K-$6.4K
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Noin 24d7,14185.9¢95.7¢+11.4%$6.8K+$700
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Noin 208d6,70884.4¢89.5¢+6.1%$6.0K+$345
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Noin 24d6,08396.6¢98.0¢+1.5%$6.0K+$89
Ebola pandemic in 2026?Noin 208d6,08090.9¢92.5¢+1.8%$5.6K+$98
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Noin 24d5,84684.6¢93.5¢+10.5%$5.5K+$519
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Noin 24d4,56273.2¢97.0¢+32.7%$4.4K+$1.1K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Noin 208d11,00019.1¢28.5¢+49.3%$3.1K+$1.0K
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Yesin 24d14,13087.4¢19.8¢-77.4%$2.8K-$9.6K
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No4,38671.0¢59.0¢-16.9%$2.6K-$528
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yesin 24d8,70036.2¢28.5¢-21.3%$2.5K-$672
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June…Yesin 24d4,83058.0¢46.5¢-19.8%$2.2K-$555
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Noin 208d2,49779.0¢87.5¢+10.7%$2.2K+$212
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by Jun…Yesin 24d10,96828.7¢18.5¢-35.6%$2.0K-$1.1K
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Noin 208d1,62367.4¢71.5¢+6.0%$1.2K+$66
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Noin 24d1,16187.9¢94.5¢+7.5%$1.1K+$77
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in…Yesin 55d1,00071.0¢98.3¢+38.4%$983+$273
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yesin 208d1,27068.0¢71.4¢+4.9%$906+$42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yesin 1d56,46729.5¢1.6¢-94.8%$875-$15.8K
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June…Yesin 24d1,37023.4¢59.3¢+153.6%$812+$492
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yesin 208d1,50058.3¢52.0¢-10.9%$780-$95
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Noin 24d87084.0¢89.0¢+6.0%$774+$43
2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Yesin 44d1,00081.0¢74.5¢-8.0%$745-$65
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes1,01071.0¢58.0¢-18.3%$586-$131
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June…Yesin 24d4,01425.3¢11.5¢-54.5%$462-$553
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade…Yesin 1d14,34079.0¢3.2¢-96.0%$459-$10.9K
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meet…Noin 24d46896.0¢95.7¢-0.3%$448-$1
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Noin 209d1,00039.0¢43.5¢+11.5%$435+$45
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?Noin 24d42092.0¢98.3¢+6.7%$413+$26
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yesin 24d2,00061.5¢19.9¢-67.7%$397-$833
Kash Patel out by December 31?Yesin 208d70077.0¢54.5¢-29.2%$382-$158
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of H…Yesin 24d11,8067.7¢3.1¢-59.8%$366-$545
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?Noin 24d35787.0¢98.0¢+12.6%$349+$39
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yesin 24d2,97128.6¢11.0¢-61.5%$327-$523
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Noin 24d28996.0¢94.5¢-1.7%$273-$5
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeti…Noin 24d18092.0¢92.0¢+0.1%$166+$0
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June…Yes3,00222.7¢4.5¢-80.1%$135-$545
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Yesin 24d1,56990.5¢8.0¢-91.2%$126-$1.3K
No one announced as next James Bond?Yesin 24d12653.0¢90.5¢+70.8%$114+$47
NBA Finals: Player to Record a 5x5?Noin 14d13596.0¢72.3¢-24.7%$98-$32
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Noin 208d6092.6¢93.8¢+1.2%$56+$1
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framewor…Noin 24d4882.0¢91.5¢+11.6%$44+$5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?Noin 208d4090.0¢91.5¢+1.7%$37+$1
Trump out as President by June 30?Noin 24d3096.8¢98.9¢+2.1%$30+$1
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Noin 24d3097.4¢98.9¢+1.5%$30+$0
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Noin 24d3885.4¢77.0¢-9.8%$29-$3
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yesin 208d3060.1¢72.2¢+20.1%$22+$4
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Noin 208d2379.6¢85.5¢+7.4%$20+$1
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?Noin 209d2189.9¢92.7¢+3.1%$20+$1
Iran leadership change by June 30?Noin 24d2083.5¢96.2¢+15.1%$19+$3
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Noin 208d2083.5¢86.5¢+3.6%$17+$1
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June…Noin 24d2069.0¢81.5¢+18.1%$16+$2
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yesin 24d23518.5¢4.9¢-73.8%$11-$32
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian preside…Noin 1d1589.7¢60.2¢-33.0%$9-$4
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yesin 208d3027.0¢28.5¢+5.5%$9+$0
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Noin 208d1071.0¢78.5¢+10.6%$8+$1
Trump out as President before 2027?Yesin 208d8011.9¢9.5¢-20.0%$8-$2
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yesin 208d3023.0¢21.5¢-6.5%$6-$0
Epstein client list released by June 30?Noin 24d581.0¢96.7¢+19.3%$5+$1
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yesin 24d2048.0¢16.5¢-65.6%$3-$6
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Yesin 24d502.5¢6.5¢+157.9%$3+$2
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?Yesin 137d3013.0¢10.9¢-16.2%$3-$1
Ebola pandemic in 2026?Yesin 208d406.0¢7.5¢+25.0%$3+$1
2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Noin 44d1022.0¢25.5¢+15.9%$3+$0
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Yesin 208d406.7¢6.0¢-10.0%$2-$0
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?Yesin 208d208.3¢6.5¢-21.2%$1-$0
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Noin 208d188.0¢91.5¢+4.0%$1+$0
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?Noin 208d195.6¢95.0¢-0.7%$1-$0
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yesin 208d716.0¢13.5¢-15.6%$1-$0
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yesin 24d302.2¢1.8¢-15.9%$1-$0
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?Yesin 24d301.3¢1.1¢-9.2%$0-$0
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?Noin 208d330.0¢3.9¢-87.0%$0-$1

Realized history

Closed positions via avg-cost matching
Market · OutcomeQtyAvg costAvg exitRealizedViaClosed
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Yes15,52197.9¢100.0¢+$322resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?No9,12599.7¢100.0¢+$31resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?No71,4491.2¢0.0¢-$855resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?No2,4040.2¢0.0¢-$5resolution2026-06-05 23:08 UTC
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Yes5,24299.8¢100.0¢+$10resolution2026-06-05 23:08 UTC
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by…Yes1,00052.8¢4.0¢-$488trade2026-06-05 22:24 UTC
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by…Yes73334.0¢20.1¢-$102trade2026-06-04 23:06 UTC
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by…Yes25834.0¢22.3¢-$30trade2026-06-04 23:05 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes5,00030.6¢4.4¢-$1.3Ktrade2026-06-04 14:09 UTC
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by…Yes1,00052.8¢11.0¢-$418trade2026-06-04 06:23 UTC
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes12840.1¢18.0¢-$28trade2026-06-03 20:20 UTC
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes45040.1¢19.0¢-$95trade2026-06-03 20:19 UTC
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by…Yes2,91739.6¢0.0¢-$1.2Kresolution2026-06-03 00:00 UTC
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?No77998.8¢98.4¢-$3trade2026-06-02 23:07 UTC
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?No10,00093.0¢97.0¢+$402trade2026-06-02 22:49 UTC
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?No9,87498.1¢97.9¢-$24trade2026-06-02 22:48 UTC
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes21542.3¢28.0¢-$31trade2026-06-02 16:50 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes5,00030.6¢5.0¢-$1.3Ktrade2026-06-02 16:18 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes5,00030.6¢5.0¢-$1.3Ktrade2026-06-02 16:16 UTC
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes20042.3¢23.0¢-$39trade2026-06-02 16:15 UTC
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in…No2196.4¢99.8¢+$1trade2026-06-02 14:27 UTC
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No56,18032.9¢99.7¢+$37.5Ktrade2026-06-02 01:31 UTC
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by…Yes1,00039.6¢4.8¢-$348trade2026-06-02 01:20 UTC
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by…Yes18639.6¢4.9¢-$64trade2026-06-02 00:55 UTC
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?Yes23,22097.6¢99.9¢+$544trade2026-06-01 22:52 UTC
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 20…Yes8490.0¢99.9¢+$8trade2026-06-01 22:31 UTC
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No9,57697.4¢97.8¢+$40trade2026-06-01 21:47 UTC
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?No2783.0¢100.0¢+$5resolution2026-06-01 00:00 UTC
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No26980.0¢84.0¢+$11trade2026-05-31 15:48 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes10,00020.0¢1.4¢-$1.9Ktrade2026-05-31 09:38 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes2,50020.0¢2.1¢-$448trade2026-05-31 02:55 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ma…Yes3,67111.0¢0.0¢-$403resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Iran leadership change by May 31?No1,70095.8¢100.0¢+$72resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegatio…Yes2,3902.6¢0.0¢-$63resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ma…No25077.0¢100.0¢+$58resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?Yes1,00099.5¢100.0¢+$5resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Trump kiss by May 31?No3,21565.8¢0.0¢-$2.1Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?No1,00092.0¢100.0¢+$80resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?No2,10578.7¢100.0¢+$448resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Yes36,9631.8¢0.0¢-$661resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Yes6,99415.0¢0.0¢-$1.1Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?No1,35990.5¢100.0¢+$129resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?No1,35296.8¢100.0¢+$44resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?No25082.0¢100.0¢+$45resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Yes51342.0¢0.0¢-$215resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?No11,52498.9¢100.0¢+$131resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes139,53220.0¢0.0¢-$27.9Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegatio…No3,40780.0¢100.0¢+$683resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by…No9,11684.2¢100.0¢+$1.4Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?Yes2,00984.1¢0.0¢-$1.7Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
278 total · page 1 of 6← Prev50 per pageNext →

Recent trades

Last 50 ingested fills
Time UTCSideSizePriceMarket
2026-06-05 22:24 UTCSELL1,0004.0¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes
2026-06-05 16:06 UTCBUY20,67699.8¢Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes
2026-06-05 00:20 UTCBUY11,16481.0¢US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No
2026-06-04 23:06 UTCSELL73320.1¢Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30…Yes
2026-06-04 23:05 UTCSELL25822.3¢Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30…Yes
2026-06-04 18:18 UTCBUY12868.1¢Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes
2026-06-04 18:18 UTCBUY1,14268.0¢Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes
2026-06-04 15:18 UTCBUY10,00097.5¢Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No
2026-06-04 14:09 UTCSELL5,0004.4¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes
2026-06-04 09:58 UTCBUY13596.0¢NBA Finals: Player to Record a 5x5?No
2026-06-04 08:45 UTCBUY5,00015.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes
2026-06-04 06:23 UTCSELL1,00011.0¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes
2026-06-04 06:21 UTCBUY5,87397.4¢US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?No
2026-06-04 03:35 UTCBUY11,29093.5¢Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No
2026-06-04 03:33 UTCBUY3,97797.3¢US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?No
2026-06-04 03:33 UTCBUY6,08597.7¢Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No
2026-06-04 02:29 UTCBUY10,96994.8¢Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes
2026-06-04 02:29 UTCBUY1,25093.0¢Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes
2026-06-04 00:47 UTCBUY5,00015.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes
2026-06-03 23:15 UTCBUY7,29755.0¢Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes
2026-06-03 23:11 UTCBUY2,32747.9¢Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes
2026-06-03 21:29 UTCBUY1,1610.4¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes
2026-06-03 21:26 UTCBUY4150.3¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes
2026-06-03 20:20 UTCSELL12818.0¢Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes
2026-06-03 20:19 UTCSELL45019.0¢Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes
2026-06-03 19:13 UTCBUY3000.4¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes
2026-06-03 17:48 UTCBUY1099.7¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No
2026-06-03 14:10 UTCBUY2,10738.0¢Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30…Yes
2026-06-03 14:04 UTCBUY1,32035.1¢Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30…Yes
2026-06-03 14:03 UTCBUY1,01232.1¢Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30…Yes
2026-06-03 13:55 UTCBUY27430.0¢Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30…Yes
2026-06-03 13:50 UTCBUY48630.0¢Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30…Yes
2026-06-03 13:42 UTCBUY91728.7¢Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30…Yes
2026-06-03 13:21 UTCBUY100,0000.5¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes
2026-06-03 13:02 UTCBUY146,7790.4¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes
2026-06-03 13:02 UTCBUY1,894,1900.4¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes
2026-06-03 05:57 UTCSELL39197.4¢Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No
2026-06-03 02:50 UTCBUY22018.0¢Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes
2026-06-03 01:24 UTCBUY22517.0¢Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes
2026-06-02 23:18 UTCSELL2,12097.4¢Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No
2026-06-02 23:18 UTCSELL4,67097.4¢Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No
2026-06-02 23:11 UTCSELL20,49793.7¢Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No
2026-06-02 23:07 UTCSELL81998.4¢Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?No
2026-06-02 23:06 UTCSELL2,40198.4¢Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?No
2026-06-02 22:49 UTCSELL10,00097.0¢US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?No
2026-06-02 22:48 UTCSELL9,87497.9¢Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?No
2026-06-02 22:29 UTCBUY47318.0¢Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes
2026-06-02 21:44 UTCBUY20,00099.1¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No
2026-06-02 21:43 UTCSELL3,67997.5¢Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No
2026-06-02 21:43 UTCSELL2,25597.5¢Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No