trader profile

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

0xc8ab97a9089a9ff7e6ef0688e6e591a066946418
Open MV$1.68M262 positions
Open PnL-$40.4K-2.4% on basis
Realized PnL$00 closed
Hit rateWilson lower 0%
Volume observed$11.52M3,075 trades · 1842 markets
Current ranklast trade 17h 10m ago

Open book

Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
Market · OutcomeSizeAvg costCurrentΔ%MVPnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Noin 885d450,00050.0¢84.0¢+68.1%$378.2K+$153.2K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Noin 9d350,22794.4¢97.5¢+3.2%$341.3K+$10.7K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Noin 24d165,60981.0¢82.0¢+1.2%$135.8K+$1.7K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Noin 24d91,60396.4¢97.2¢+0.8%$89.0K+$731
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d450,00050.0¢16.0¢-68.1%$71.8K-$153.2K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yesin 208d62,98674.7¢71.5¢-4.3%$45.0K-$2.0K
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June…Noin 24d44,84389.3¢87.0¢-2.6%$39.0K-$1.0K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Noin 55d53,06356.3¢64.5¢+14.6%$34.2K+$4.3K
2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Yesin 44d41,57280.0¢73.5¢-8.1%$30.6K-$2.7K
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in…Yesin 150d31,06176.8¢71.4¢-7.0%$22.2K-$1.7K
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade…Noin 1d20,71491.5¢95.5¢+4.3%$19.8K+$822
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Noin 9d20,00086.6¢88.5¢+2.2%$17.7K+$373
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meet…Noin 24d14,18295.3¢96.0¢+0.8%$13.6K+$108
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June…No14,18292.4¢94.0¢+1.8%$13.3K+$231
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yesin 208d15,73975.7¢73.5¢-2.9%$11.6K-$348
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July…Noin 55d15,00082.0¢75.0¢-8.5%$11.2K-$1.0K
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 3…Noin 24d11,50496.1¢96.4¢+0.3%$11.1K+$36
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Yesin 573d11,00097.0¢96.8¢-0.3%$10.6K-$27
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?Noin 573d10,04798.8¢98.7¢-0.2%$9.9K-$15
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec…Yesin 1d15,78975.5¢61.5¢-18.6%$9.7K-$2.2K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?Yesin 573d10,00094.7¢94.8¢+0.1%$9.5K+$12
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?Noin 4d9,58794.8¢97.4¢+2.7%$9.3K+$242
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 202…Noin 150d11,94087.3¢77.5¢-11.2%$9.3K-$1.2K
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Noin 2d8,37394.6¢95.3¢+0.8%$8.0K+$60
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Noin 209d15,85381.0¢48.5¢-40.1%$7.7K-$5.1K
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presi…Yesin 15d9,24081.7¢80.5¢-1.5%$7.4K-$113
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?Noin 208d8,28891.2¢89.5¢-1.9%$7.4K-$143
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?Noin 24d8,16583.9¢87.9¢+4.8%$7.2K+$329
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade…Yesin 55d11,49170.3¢60.5¢-14.0%$7.0K-$1.1K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July…Yesin 24d10,00072.0¢69.5¢-3.5%$6.9K-$250
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yesin 573d8,00087.5¢86.5¢-1.1%$6.9K-$80
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yesin 208d44,25016.5¢15.5¢-5.8%$6.9K-$426
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yesin 24d24,92729.7¢27.5¢-7.3%$6.9K-$540
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?Noin 25d8,42681.6¢80.5¢-1.3%$6.8K-$93
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?Noin 24d7,20793.5¢93.6¢+0.1%$6.7K+$5
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June…Yesin 24d12,25658.2¢52.5¢-9.8%$6.4K-$696
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian preside…Noin 1d10,00075.5¢62.6¢-17.0%$6.3K-$1.3K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Noin 55d9,28461.2¢63.0¢+2.9%$5.8K+$166
Fed rate hike in 2026?Noin 186d9,39362.4¢60.5¢-3.1%$5.7K-$182
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yesin 573d8,00070.5¢67.5¢-4.3%$5.4K-$240
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Noin 9d5,93090.4¢90.5¢+0.1%$5.4K+$3
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Noin 209d7,27784.3¢69.5¢-17.5%$5.1K-$1.1K
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Noin 24d5,33488.8¢86.5¢-2.6%$4.6K-$122
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?Noin 24d6,71967.4¢68.5¢+1.6%$4.6K+$72
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by Dece…Noin 208d7,69461.6¢59.5¢-3.4%$4.6K-$162
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by Ju…Noin 24d5,10290.6¢89.5¢-1.2%$4.6K-$56
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Noin 209d6,93980.3¢60.5¢-24.7%$4.2K-$1.4K
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Noin 24d4,63686.5¢86.5¢+0.0%$4.0K+$0
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?Noin 573d6,00063.5¢66.5¢+4.7%$4.0K+$180
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of H…Noin 24d4,03395.8¢96.9¢+1.1%$3.9K+$42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?Yesin 25d7,15363.0¢54.5¢-13.4%$3.9K-$605
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Noin 208d4,00096.2¢96.9¢+0.7%$3.9K+$26
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Noin 24d4,05181.2¢92.5¢+14.0%$3.7K+$459
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California electi…Noin 150d6,00762.7¢62.0¢-1.1%$3.7K-$41
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Noin 9d4,00092.6¢92.5¢-0.1%$3.7K-$3
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeti…Noin 24d4,00292.9¢92.2¢-0.8%$3.7K-$30
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?Noin 25d4,00093.0¢88.3¢-5.1%$3.5K-$190
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June…Yesin 24d5,86046.1¢58.9¢+27.7%$3.4K+$748
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential…Noin 15d4,10782.7¢82.5¢-0.3%$3.4K-$9
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yesin 574d4,84274.2¢68.5¢-7.7%$3.3K-$278
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yesin 11d10,69156.6¢29.0¢-48.8%$3.1K-$3.0K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3TNoin 573d3,36589.8¢90.5¢+0.7%$3.0K+$22
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?Noin 573d3,44984.5¢84.5¢+0.1%$2.9K+$2
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?Yesin 24d3,21183.2¢83.5¢+0.4%$2.7K+$9
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade…Yesin 24d5,90657.0¢44.5¢-22.0%$2.6K-$741
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meetin…Noin 24d3,03586.9¢86.5¢-0.4%$2.6K-$11
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Jul…Noin 53d35,00013.9¢7.5¢-45.9%$2.6K-$2.2K
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Noin 24d3,85268.3¢67.5¢-1.2%$2.6K-$32
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?Yesin 55d8,60131.3¢30.0¢-4.2%$2.6K-$112
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Noin 24d3,15080.5¢80.8¢+0.4%$2.5K+$11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?Noin 25d2,82086.6¢86.5¢-0.1%$2.4K-$3
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?No3,00085.7¢80.8¢-5.7%$2.4K-$147
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presi…Yesin 120d5,46042.9¢40.5¢-5.7%$2.2K-$134
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?Noin 209d3,47184.1¢63.5¢-24.5%$2.2K-$714
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?Noin 25d6,00038.3¢36.5¢-4.8%$2.2K-$110
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Noin 208d6,00061.0¢36.0¢-41.0%$2.2K-$1.5K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Yesin 573d3,91856.5¢54.5¢-3.5%$2.1K-$78
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?Yesin 25d5,95239.9¢35.5¢-11.1%$2.1K-$263
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Noin 208d2,86778.8¢71.5¢-9.3%$2.1K-$210
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31,…Noin 209d3,11452.0¢63.5¢+22.0%$2.0K+$356
Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99%…Noin 209d2,15879.0¢91.0¢+15.1%$2.0K+$258
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?Noin 573d2,00098.8¢97.8¢-1.0%$2.0K-$20
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Noin 24d2,23458.5¢81.4¢+39.0%$1.8K+$511
Clavicular sentenced to prison?Noin 208d2,15987.7¢84.0¢-4.3%$1.8K-$81
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yesin 208d2,35278.9¢74.5¢-5.6%$1.8K-$103
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?Noin 24d2,50670.1¢68.5¢-2.3%$1.7K-$41
Iran leadership change by December 31?Yesin 208d6,64426.4¢25.5¢-3.4%$1.7K-$60
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?Noin 9d2,00088.3¢82.7¢-6.4%$1.7K-$113
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Noin 209d5,77375.0¢28.5¢-62.0%$1.6K-$2.7K
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yesin 24d30,4025.2¢5.3¢+2.8%$1.6K+$44
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?Noin 25d2,63659.0¢61.5¢+4.2%$1.6K+$65
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?Noin 25d1,71589.3¢91.5¢+2.4%$1.6K+$37
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?Noin 24d1,59283.1¢97.3¢+17.1%$1.5K+$227
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yesin 209d2,06674.7¢74.0¢-0.9%$1.5K-$14
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by Ju…Noin 24d1,58692.3¢94.0¢+1.9%$1.5K+$27
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Noin 209d2,13981.5¢69.5¢-14.7%$1.5K-$256
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Noin 208d1,95171.5¢74.5¢+4.2%$1.5K+$58
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e…Yesin 120d5,04329.1¢28.8¢-1.1%$1.5K-$17
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?Noin 24d2,17764.3¢63.0¢-2.0%$1.4K-$28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Noin 208d2,00070.0¢68.5¢-2.1%$1.4K-$30
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yesin 208d20,1838.6¢6.5¢-24.3%$1.3K-$421
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?Yesin 208d40,7659.7¢3.1¢-67.9%$1.3K-$2.7K
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?Noin 24d1,61677.2¢77.5¢+0.4%$1.3K+$5
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?Noin 24d1,58378.5¢79.0¢+0.7%$1.3K+$8
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?Noin 25d1,93283.7¢62.0¢-26.0%$1.2K-$420
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?Noin 208d1,40482.2¢83.5¢+1.6%$1.2K+$19
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade…Noin 9d1,49272.3¢78.5¢+8.6%$1.2K+$93
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at mark…No1,23993.2¢93.5¢+0.2%$1.2K+$3
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?Noin 25d1,97365.5¢58.5¢-10.7%$1.2K-$138
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?Noin 573d1,15994.0¢94.5¢+0.5%$1.1K+$6
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?Noin 25d1,36873.0¢78.5¢+7.5%$1.1K+$75
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?Yes1,36440.7¢77.5¢+90.5%$1.1K+$502
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?Yesin 208d33,85119.5¢2.9¢-84.9%$999-$5.6K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Noin 208d2,00051.0¢49.5¢-2.9%$990-$30
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?No1,00095.9¢97.4¢+1.6%$974+$15
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republi…Noin 3d1,00097.7¢96.7¢-1.1%$967-$11
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?Noin 209d2,19771.9¢42.0¢-41.6%$923-$656
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes1,99157.8¢45.0¢-22.1%$896-$254
Kash Patel out by June 30?Noin 24d1,00089.5¢89.5¢+0.0%$895+$0
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?Noin 24d2,38240.8¢36.0¢-11.8%$858-$115
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yesin 24d8,11813.0¢10.5¢-19.0%$852-$201
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Anthropicin 573d1,09781.1¢76.5¢-5.7%$839-$51
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?Noin 24d2,05746.9¢40.0¢-14.8%$823-$143
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Noin 208d1,00085.7¢81.7¢-4.7%$817-$40
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Noin 208d1,03276.5¢77.0¢+0.6%$794+$5
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes1,30261.2¢60.5¢-1.1%$788-$8
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?Yesin 208d30,05912.8¢2.5¢-80.9%$736-$3.1K
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Noin 209d2,51554.5¢28.5¢-47.8%$717-$655
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLAU?Noin 573d72998.1¢97.8¢-0.3%$713-$2
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?Noin 39d90876.0¢77.0¢+1.3%$699+$9
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Noin 208d2,22731.0¢30.8¢-0.8%$685-$6
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?Noin 24d84080.0¢81.0¢+1.3%$680+$8
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Rep…Yesin 3d1,00064.5¢65.5¢+1.6%$655+$10
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?Yesin 209d7,68810.7¢8.0¢-25.0%$615-$205
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yesin 150d95779.4¢59.5¢-25.1%$569-$190
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Noin 208d2,00028.0¢27.8¢-0.7%$556-$4
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLDE?Noin 573d56096.9¢95.5¢-1.5%$535-$8
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Noin 209d67782.3¢76.5¢-7.1%$518-$40
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?Noin 25d64292.2¢79.7¢-13.5%$512-$80
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?Noin 208d21,67934.7¢2.4¢-93.2%$509-$7.0K
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June?Noin 24d57581.7¢88.5¢+8.3%$509+$39
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral ele…Yesin 2d50097.0¢96.3¢-0.8%$481-$4
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June?Noin 24d50093.8¢95.0¢+1.3%$475+$6
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayor…Noin 2d59379.7¢80.0¢+0.4%$474+$2
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz betwe…Noin 1d52888.5¢89.5¢+1.2%$472+$5
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by Ju…Noin 24d61176.4¢72.0¢-5.8%$440-$27
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Noin 208d1,23833.2¢34.5¢+3.9%$427+$16
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 3…Noin 24d44792.5¢88.0¢-4.9%$393-$20
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Noin 208d47981.0¢81.5¢+0.6%$391+$2
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral electi…Noin 2d40096.3¢96.1¢-0.2%$384-$1
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?Noin 25d39596.2¢97.0¢+0.8%$383+$3
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?Noin 25d57277.0¢65.9¢-14.4%$377-$64
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yesin 208d13,8917.4¢2.7¢-63.8%$375-$660
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Noin 208d68753.0¢54.5¢+2.8%$375+$10
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Lead…No40092.8¢92.5¢-0.4%$370-$2
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between…Noin 1d37097.4¢98.3¢+0.8%$364+$3
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31?Noin 209d60080.5¢60.5¢-24.8%$363-$120
Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yesin 24d36494.3¢97.7¢+3.6%$355+$12
Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027?Noin 208d39889.9¢88.9¢-1.0%$354-$4
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 1…Noin 24d36691.5¢92.5¢+1.1%$338+$4
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $APBC?Noin 573d33598.0¢97.9¢-0.2%$328-$1
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic…Yesin 208d1,30340.2¢25.0¢-37.9%$326-$199
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $155B by June 30?Noin 56d65678.5¢48.0¢-38.9%$315-$200
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by Ju…Noin 24d39489.9¢79.5¢-11.5%$313-$41
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?Yesin 55d45163.3¢69.5¢+9.7%$313+$28
Will SpaceX IPO on June 15, 2026?Noin 23d31196.1¢98.6¢+2.6%$307+$8
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli may…Yesin 2d40081.0¢75.0¢-7.4%$300-$24
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?Yesin 24d1,38821.1¢21.3¢+1.3%$296+$4
Will Trump announce Sara Brenner as the next FDA commission…Noin 208d40095.9¢71.8¢-25.2%$287-$97
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Yesin 209d32489.0¢87.5¢-1.7%$284-$5
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 1…Noin 24d30991.5¢91.0¢-0.5%$281-$2
Will Floriana Natale win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayo…No37074.4¢73.5¢-1.2%$272-$3
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of t…Noin 24d27592.7¢93.5¢+0.9%$258+$2
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by Ju…Noin 24d24487.3¢90.5¢+3.7%$221+$8
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2…Yesin 150d4,1635.1¢5.1¢-0.5%$210-$1
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?Noin 209d21790.2¢91.5¢+1.5%$198+$3
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market cl…Noin 573d36682.5¢54.0¢-34.5%$198-$104
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30?Yesin 25d66868.5¢29.5¢-56.9%$197-$261
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Noin 208d36051.0¢53.5¢+4.9%$192+$9
Will Al Lawson win the Tallahassee mayoral election?Noin 73d20089.0¢93.5¢+5.1%$187+$9
X banned in any European country by December 31?Noin 208d27167.4¢69.0¢+2.4%$187+$4
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 202…Yesin 127d1,59834.4¢11.5¢-66.5%$184-$365
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 2…Noin 24d19694.5¢93.5¢-1.1%$183-$2
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $15B by December 31?Yesin 209d40063.5¢45.0¢-29.1%$180-$74
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United…Noin 208d19795.9¢91.1¢-5.0%$180-$9
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 2…Noin 24d20784.0¢86.5¢+3.0%$179+$5
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bo…Yesin 120d44350.8¢40.0¢-21.3%$177-$48
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?Noin 54d22287.8¢79.5¢-9.4%$176-$18
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market…Noin 209d18890.0¢90.5¢+0.6%$171+$1
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential no…Yesin 885d12,4041.5¢1.4¢-9.8%$167-$18
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below…Noin 12d20084.0¢78.5¢-6.5%$157-$11
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?Noin 9d20076.0¢76.5¢+0.6%$153+$1
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027?Yesin 390d20073.0¢72.5¢-0.7%$145-$1
Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral…Yesin 2d28253.6¢50.5¢-5.9%$142-$9
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June…Noin 1d14497.6¢98.9¢+1.3%$142+$2
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31?Noin 55d20078.0¢70.0¢-10.3%$140-$16
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 1…Noin 24d15390.9¢90.5¢-0.4%$138-$1
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027?Yesin 574d20069.0¢68.5¢-0.7%$137-$1
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul…Yesin 120d40046.0¢33.5¢-27.2%$134-$50
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yesin 24d47030.0¢28.5¢-5.0%$134-$7
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Noin 208d54521.9¢24.5¢+12.1%$134+$14
Will Lorenzo Radice win the 2026 Legnano mayoral election?Yesin 2d19169.0¢69.5¢+0.7%$133+$1
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30?Noin 25d15981.5¢82.5¢+1.3%$131+$2
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of th…Yesin 24d19558.1¢67.5¢+16.2%$131+$18
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 3 weeks?Noin 55d14588.0¢89.0¢+1.1%$129+$1
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yesin 208d66523.9¢18.5¢-22.5%$123-$36
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Electio…Yesin 224d20062.0¢61.5¢-0.8%$123-$1
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31?Yesin 209d26055.1¢44.5¢-19.3%$116-$28
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election?Noin 2d20076.0¢55.5¢-27.0%$111-$41
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?Yesin 24d12186.2¢87.5¢+1.5%$106+$2
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?Yesin 208d85613.7¢12.3¢-10.4%$105-$12
Will Mario Almici win the 2026 Legnano mayoral election?Noin 2d15168.0¢68.5¢+0.7%$104+$1
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Noin 208d11185.4¢88.5¢+3.6%$98+$3
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Noin 25d10095.0¢97.5¢+2.7%$98+$3
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by Ju…Noin 24d9794.0¢96.5¢+2.7%$94+$2
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of t…Yesin 24d59918.1¢15.5¢-14.2%$93-$15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?Noin 25d9694.0¢94.5¢+0.5%$91+$0
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $170B by December 31?Noin 209d30074.0¢27.0¢-63.5%$81-$141
Will Salvatore Alfano win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election?Yesin 2d20044.0¢39.5¢-10.2%$79-$9
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel?Noin 24d8292.0¢92.5¢+0.5%$76+$0
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31?Yesin 209d16140.0¢44.5¢+11.3%$72+$7
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul el…Yesin 120d20046.0¢35.5¢-22.8%$71-$21
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04?Noin 10d10080.0¢68.5¢-14.4%$69-$12
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0…Yesin 18d17928.0¢29.5¢+5.4%$53+$3
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidentia…Yesin 1d15726.7¢33.5¢+25.6%$53+$11
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June?Yesin 24d21060.8¢24.0¢-60.5%$50-$77
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral electio…Yesin 2d8470.0¢55.5¢-20.7%$47-$12
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May?Yesin 5d10841.0¢41.5¢+1.2%$45+$1
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Lead…No5087.0¢89.5¢+2.9%$45+$1
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?Yesin 25d8080.0¢51.5¢-35.6%$41-$23
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in J…Yesin 20d16723.0¢23.5¢+2.2%$39+$1
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $85B by June 30?Yesin 25d6083.0¢65.0¢-21.7%$39-$11
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Noin 208d7350.7¢52.5¢+3.6%$38+$1
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026?Noin 209d20030.0¢19.0¢-36.7%$38-$22
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June…Yesin 1d35811.4¢10.0¢-12.5%$36-$5
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?Noin 209d7089.9¢48.0¢-46.6%$34-$29
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be betwe…Yesin 12d9632.0¢32.5¢+1.6%$31+$0
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic mee…Noin 24d3670.9¢79.5¢+12.2%$29+$3
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market…Noin 209d3092.0¢92.5¢+0.5%$28+$0
Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market…Noin 209d3092.0¢92.5¢+0.5%$28+$0
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Noin 24d3480.0¢81.5¢+1.9%$27+$1
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 3…Noin 208d2290.3¢95.3¢+5.6%$21+$1
Will Maria Wanjera Ghimenton win the 2026 Castelfranco Vene…Yesin 2d4560.0¢46.0¢-23.3%$21-$6
Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 AL Central title?Yesin 127d36947.5¢5.0¢-89.5%$18-$157
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates…Yesin 573d4005.5¢4.5¢-18.2%$18-$4
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by be…Yes9418.0¢19.0¢+5.6%$18+$1
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?Noin 573d1795.4¢96.0¢+0.6%$17+$0
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?Noin 209d20026.0¢7.5¢-71.2%$15-$37
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Noin 209d3341.8¢42.5¢+1.6%$14+$0
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Stra…Noin 24d1589.0¢92.0¢+3.4%$14+$0
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in J…Yesin 20d6019.0¢19.5¢+2.6%$12+$0
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June?Noin 24d4552.3¢26.0¢-50.2%$12-$12
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7?Noin 1d1097.1¢97.5¢+0.5%$9+$0
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?Yesin 18d1368.0¢69.0¢+1.5%$9+$0
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Lead…Yes2923.0¢26.5¢+15.2%$8+$1
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 2…Yesin 24d986.0¢6.5¢+8.3%$6+$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No859.0¢59.5¢+0.8%$5+$0
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presi…Yesin 1d654.0¢57.5¢+6.5%$3+$0
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates s…Yesin 573d838.0¢38.5¢+1.3%$3+$0
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?Yesin 11d1126.0¢21.1¢-19.2%$2-$1
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31?Yesin 55d343.0¢4.5¢+50.0%$2+$1
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?Noin 224d175.0¢75.5¢+0.7%$1+$0

Realized history

Closed positions via avg-cost matching
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Recent trades

Last 50 ingested fills
Time UTCSideSizePriceMarket
2026-06-05 06:28 UTCBUY9749.0¢WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5?Up
2026-06-05 02:25 UTCBUY9,80994.0¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No
2026-06-05 02:12 UTCSELL1503.0¢Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.55B?No
2026-06-05 00:03 UTCBUY3,38999.8¢Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31?No
2026-06-05 00:03 UTCBUY2,84699.9¢Israeli forces enter Choukine by May 31?No
2026-06-04 23:38 UTCBUY3,18997.0¢US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?No
2026-06-04 23:33 UTCSELL2840.2¢Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30?No
2026-06-04 23:30 UTCSELL1150.1¢Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 1 2026?YesResolved
2026-06-04 23:30 UTCSELL3200.1¢Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 1 2026?Yes
2026-06-04 23:29 UTCSELL4000.2¢Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (6/1-6/7)Yes
2026-06-04 23:29 UTCSELL1999.6¢Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 14, 2…No
2026-06-04 23:23 UTCSELL9,87916.0¢Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes
2026-06-04 23:21 UTCSELL032.0¢Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes
2026-06-04 23:14 UTCSELL15.0¢Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31?Yes
2026-06-04 23:10 UTCSELL1,00081.7¢Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?No
2026-06-04 22:53 UTCSELL1103.9¢Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?No
2026-06-04 22:46 UTCSELL369.0¢Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?Yes
2026-06-04 22:23 UTCSELL70074.0¢Will Matthew "Bronco" Williams advance from the AK-AL primary e…No
2026-06-04 22:19 UTCSELL4343.1¢Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in June 2026?Yes
2026-06-04 22:16 UTCSELL5038.0¢Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30?No
2026-06-04 22:16 UTCSELL9675.0¢Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30?No
2026-06-04 22:16 UTCSELL20076.0¢Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30?No
2026-06-04 22:16 UTCSELL1994.0¢Trump meets with Putin by June 30?Yes
2026-06-04 22:14 UTCSELL112.0¢Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026?Yes
2026-06-04 22:11 UTCSELL600.1¢Will Innio's market cap be between $26B and $29B at market clos…YesResolved
2026-06-04 22:09 UTCSELL555.0¢Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.55B?No
2026-06-04 22:09 UTCSELL2353.2¢Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.…No
2026-06-04 22:06 UTCSELL1,49078.5¢Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?No
2026-06-04 22:03 UTCBUY38398.9¢Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026?NoResolved
2026-06-04 22:03 UTCBUY42298.0¢Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026?NoResolved
2026-06-04 22:02 UTCBUY10999.7¢Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of June 1 2026?NoResolved
2026-06-04 22:01 UTCBUY26498.4¢Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 Week of June 1 2026?No
2026-06-04 22:00 UTCBUY27098.4¢Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,350 Week of June 1 2026?NoResolved
2026-06-04 21:56 UTCSELL3200.1¢Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 1 2026?Yes
2026-06-04 21:56 UTCSELL3711.1¢Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026?Yes
2026-06-04 21:55 UTCBUY1,37099.7¢Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 1 2026?No
2026-06-04 21:55 UTCBUY35999.8¢Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 1 2026?No
2026-06-04 21:54 UTCSELL2000.1¢Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of June 1 2026?Yes
2026-06-04 21:54 UTCBUY2099.0¢Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 Week of June 1 2026?No
2026-06-04 21:51 UTCSELL1072.0¢Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 4?Yes
2026-06-04 21:50 UTCSELL567.0¢Will Malaysia recognize Israel by December 31?Yes
2026-06-04 21:49 UTCSELL1317.0¢Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?Yes
2026-06-04 21:41 UTCSELL426.0¢Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 11, 2…Yes
2026-06-04 21:34 UTCSELL1000.1¢WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 4?YesResolved
2026-06-04 21:15 UTCBUY4,77298.9¢US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?No
2026-06-04 20:30 UTCSELL7812.2¢Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026?Yes
2026-06-04 20:18 UTCBUY10839.9¢WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 4?YesResolved
2026-06-04 20:15 UTCBUY1,04899.9¢Will Trump say "Miner" 3+ times during coal announcement?YesResolved
2026-06-04 20:15 UTCBUY28399.8¢Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times du…YesResolved
2026-06-04 20:01 UTCSELL2,16982.8¢Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?No