trader profile
rdba
0xc4d1a863e9cc45d02ba22d3a1ae9ba7822018ce8
Open MV$124.0K24 positions
Open PnL+$5.8K5.0% on basis
Realized PnL+$66.4K64 closed
Hit rate80%Wilson lower 68%
Volume observed$4.90M200 trades · 89 markets
Current rank—last trade 3d ago
Open book
Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
Realized history
Closed positions via avg-cost matching
| Market · Outcome | Qty | Avg cost | Avg exit | Realized | Via | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of th…No | 466 | 98.5¢ | 100.0¢ | +$7 | resolution | 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes | 552 | 99.9¢ | 100.0¢ | +$1 | resolution | 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes | 9,593 | 99.9¢ | 100.0¢ | +$10 | resolution | 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC |
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?Yes | 19,399 | 97.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$582 | resolution | 2026-06-04 02:08 UTC |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?No | 20,402 | 47.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$10.8K | resolution | 2026-06-01 00:00 UTC |
| Will France win Eurovision 2026?Yes | 150 | 6.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 | resolution | 2026-05-16 00:00 UTC |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?No | 19,788 | 69.6¢ | 100.0¢ | +$6.0K | resolution | 2026-05-16 00:00 UTC |
| Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?No | 14,309 | 88.8¢ | 100.0¢ | +$1.6K | resolution | 2026-05-16 00:00 UTC |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?No | 369,890 | 99.6¢ | 100.0¢ | +$1.5K | resolution | 2026-05-16 00:00 UTC |
| Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?No | 10,242 | 96.2¢ | 100.0¢ | +$393 | resolution | 2026-05-16 00:00 UTC |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?No | 4,031 | 95.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$202 | resolution | 2026-05-16 00:00 UTC |
| Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?Yes | 2,856 | 10.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$289 | resolution | 2026-05-16 00:00 UTC |
| Will France win Eurovision 2026?No | 4,815 | 87.1¢ | 100.0¢ | +$623 | resolution | 2026-05-16 00:00 UTC |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?Yes | 24,366 | 7.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1.7K | resolution | 2026-05-16 00:00 UTC |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?Yes | 126 | 7.1¢ | 14.0¢ | +$9 | trade | 2026-05-09 04:37 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30?No | 101,004 | 38.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$38.4K | resolution | 2026-04-30 00:00 UTC |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes | 120,174 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$120 | resolution | 2026-04-26 00:00 UTC |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes | 490,012 | 99.4¢ | 100.0¢ | +$2.7K | resolution | 2026-04-07 00:00 UTC |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes | 88,727 | 98.5¢ | 100.0¢ | +$1.3K | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31?No | 81,074 | 41.7¢ | 100.0¢ | +$47.3K | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Netanyahu out by March 31?No | 142,000 | 99.8¢ | 100.0¢ | +$284 | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?No | 392,399 | 99.6¢ | 100.0¢ | +$1.6K | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February?Yes | 49,093 | 69.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$15.2K | resolution | 2026-03-01 00:00 UTC |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Yes | 957,756 | 99.2¢ | 100.0¢ | +$7.3K | resolution | 2026-02-28 00:00 UTC |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No | 44,587 | 3.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1.4K | resolution | 2026-02-28 00:00 UTC |
| Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by…Yes | 405 | 16.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$67 | resolution | 2026-02-26 00:00 UTC |
| Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by…No | 211 | 95.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$11 | resolution | 2026-02-26 00:00 UTC |
| Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-electi…Yes | 54 | 93.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$4 | resolution | 2026-02-26 00:00 UTC |
| Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-electi…No | 62 | 28.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$17 | resolution | 2026-02-26 00:00 UTC |
| Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton…No | 2,016 | 89.6¢ | 100.0¢ | +$209 | resolution | 2026-02-26 00:00 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to Feb…Yes | 226,063 | 13.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$29.4K | resolution | 2026-02-07 00:00 UTC |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 202…No | 839 | 97.9¢ | 100.0¢ | +$17 | resolution | 2026-01-31 00:00 UTC |
| US government shutdown Saturday?Yes | 54,898 | 99.4¢ | 100.0¢ | +$329 | resolution | 2026-01-31 00:00 UTC |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?No | 8,238 | 78.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$1.8K | resolution | 2026-01-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million…Yes | 2,581 | 89.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$285 | resolution | 2026-01-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Biden" 10+ times during the 2026 State…No | 1,128 | 64.8¢ | 100.0¢ | +$398 | resolution | 2026-01-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will XRP dip to $1.70 in December?Yes | 3,484 | 48.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1.7K | resolution | 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?No | 13,617 | 56.1¢ | 100.0¢ | +$6.0K | resolution | 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in December?Yes | 24,500 | 25.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$6.1K | resolution | 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?Yes | 6,491 | 92.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$519 | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?No | 1,910 | 98.4¢ | 100.0¢ | +$31 | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025?No | 29,031 | 99.1¢ | 100.0¢ | +$269 | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google t…No | 56,048 | 99.1¢ | 100.0¢ | +$520 | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No | 121,269 | 99.5¢ | 100.0¢ | +$663 | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives in 2025?No | 3,697 | 96.6¢ | 100.0¢ | +$125 | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Ye…No | 1,906 | 91.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$172 | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Ye…Yes | 3,206 | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$224 | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No | 24,660 | 87.1¢ | 100.0¢ | +$3.2K | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?Yes | 148,759 | 97.9¢ | 100.0¢ | +$3.1K | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?No | 12,997 | 96.2¢ | 100.0¢ | +$494 | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
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