trader profile

ImJustKen

0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344
Open MV$642.7K200 positions
Open PnL+$117.5K22.4% on basis
Realized PnL+$30.6K65 closed
Hit rate49%Wilson lower 37%
Volume observed$2.58M261 trades · 140 markets
Current rank#33 · alllast trade 4d ago

Open book

Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
Market · OutcomeSizeAvg costCurrentΔ%MVPnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Noin 208d225,64267.2¢84.5¢+25.7%$190.7K+$39.0K
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yesin 208d92,4254.9¢71.4¢+1342.1%$65.9K+$61.4K
Netanyahu out by June 30?Noin 24d44,25391.0¢97.8¢+7.4%$43.3K+$3.0K
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yesin 208d51,03411.0¢71.2¢+546.1%$36.3K+$30.7K
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Yesin 24d20,00458.3¢98.3¢+68.5%$19.7K+$8.0K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yesin 208d124,03336.9¢12.5¢-66.1%$15.5K-$30.3K
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d107,4079.6¢14.2¢+47.9%$15.3K+$5.0K
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d95,82218.2¢16.0¢-12.2%$15.3K-$2.1K
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomi…Yesin 885d296,6463.8¢5.1¢+31.7%$15.0K+$3.6K
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?Noin 208d15,39439.3¢93.9¢+139.1%$14.5K+$8.4K
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Noin 209d32,76241.9¢43.5¢+3.8%$14.3K+$525
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yesin 208d16,50368.8¢73.5¢+6.8%$12.1K+$773
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presi…Yesin 120d22,20837.0¢41.5¢+12.2%$9.2K+$999
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yesin 24d64,70626.7¢12.5¢-53.2%$8.1K-$9.2K
No one announced as next James Bond?Yesin 24d8,86636.9¢90.5¢+145.2%$8.0K+$4.8K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Noin 208d9,36681.0¢85.5¢+5.6%$8.0K+$422
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomi…Yesin 885d24,9990.7¢25.1¢+3290.9%$6.3K+$6.1K
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presi…Yesin 885d61,4933.5¢9.6¢+173.9%$5.9K+$3.7K
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential no…Yesin 885d270,6461.5¢2.1¢+40.6%$5.8K+$1.7K
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Yesin 19d5,90891.0¢92.0¢+1.1%$5.4K+$59
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in…Yesin 55d4,02576.1¢98.3¢+29.1%$4.0K+$892
Stripe IPO before 2027?Noin 208d4,15383.4¢90.0¢+7.9%$3.7K+$275
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Noin 24d4,05780.1¢89.5¢+11.8%$3.6K+$382
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?No12,17666.5¢28.5¢-57.2%$3.5K-$4.6K
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?Noin 208d3,55417.4¢88.5¢+409.7%$3.1K+$2.5K
New pandemic in 2026?Noin 208d3,38483.7¢88.5¢+5.7%$3.0K+$162
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?Noin 208d3,11084.5¢93.5¢+10.7%$2.9K+$280
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California electi…Yesin 150d7,50043.0¢38.5¢-10.5%$2.9K-$338
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential no…Yesin 885d63,8031.6¢4.5¢+172.5%$2.8K+$1.8K
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (E…Yesin 208d2,83852.0¢98.6¢+89.5%$2.8K+$1.3K
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30…Yes11,11310.9¢23.0¢+111.8%$2.6K+$1.3K
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d87,7712.6¢2.9¢+11.2%$2.5K+$256
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?Noin 24d2,57885.0¢98.5¢+15.8%$2.5K+$347
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?Noin 24d2,55581.0¢97.0¢+19.7%$2.5K+$408
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?Yesin 209d33,3989.0¢7.3¢-18.5%$2.5K-$556
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yesin 208d3,42251.0¢70.0¢+37.3%$2.4K+$650
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?Noin 208d2,47889.8¢93.5¢+4.1%$2.3K+$91
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?Yes2,48287.6¢87.5¢-0.1%$2.2K-$2
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomi…Yesin 885d70,0740.6¢3.0¢+370.2%$2.1K+$1.7K
Will Trump and Putin not meet?Yesin 24d2,09189.8¢96.3¢+7.2%$2.0K+$136
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Noin 208d2,55588.6¢78.5¢-11.4%$2.0K-$259
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?Yesin 208d7,50040.0¢24.0¢-40.0%$1.8K-$1.2K
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yesin 24d16,35027.0¢11.0¢-59.3%$1.8K-$2.6K
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No3,22081.8¢55.5¢-32.1%$1.8K-$845
US strike on Mexico by December 31?Noin 208d1,93082.5¢90.5¢+9.6%$1.7K+$153
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates s…Yesin 208d1,96836.5¢87.5¢+139.8%$1.7K+$1.0K
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?Noin 55d3,47254.1¢49.5¢-8.4%$1.7K-$158
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United…Noin 208d1,75389.0¢97.5¢+9.5%$1.7K+$148
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential…Yesin 885d34,4205.2¢4.8¢-8.8%$1.6K-$158
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Noin 208d2,93176.3¢55.0¢-28.0%$1.6K-$626
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yesin 126d16,6923.4¢9.3¢+170.5%$1.5K+$973
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Noin 208d1,55591.0¢94.5¢+3.8%$1.5K+$54
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.…Noin 186d1,50088.0¢95.5¢+8.5%$1.4K+$113
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?Yesin 573d1,68067.2¢84.0¢+25.0%$1.4K+$282
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?Noin 208d1,55582.9¢90.5¢+9.2%$1.4K+$118
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?Noin 208d1,55584.0¢87.5¢+4.2%$1.4K+$54
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yesin 208d6,98543.2¢19.0¢-56.0%$1.3K-$1.7K
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e…Noin 120d1,80857.7¢71.8¢+24.5%$1.3K+$255
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Noin 208d1,47385.0¢87.5¢+2.9%$1.3K+$37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yesin 24d7,50059.0¢16.5¢-72.0%$1.2K-$3.2K
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes2,22078.0¢53.0¢-32.1%$1.2K-$555
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes1,66570.3¢68.5¢-2.6%$1.1K-$31
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yesin 208d1,55534.0¢72.2¢+112.4%$1.1K+$594
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yesin 24d1,05089.4¢99.0¢+10.7%$1.0K+$100
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yesin 208d7,50016.0¢13.5¢-15.6%$1.0K-$188
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina governor race in…No1,04892.6¢91.8¢-0.8%$963-$8
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential…Yesin 885d91,2181.0¢1.1¢+8.6%$958+$76
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yesin 208d7,62914.9¢10.5¢-29.4%$801-$333
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appoin…Noin 208d1,01965.0¢75.5¢+16.2%$769+$107
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No1,11071.5¢67.5¢-5.6%$749-$44
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?Noin 24d3,74153.0¢20.0¢-62.3%$748-$1.2K
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yesin 208d13,28915.2¢5.5¢-63.9%$731-$1.3K
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nominat…Yesin 885d55,1571.0¢1.3¢+26.6%$689+$145
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?Noin 24d70394.1¢98.0¢+4.2%$689+$28
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in…Yesin 126d14,6483.5¢4.7¢+34.8%$681+$176
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes1,11078.5¢60.5¢-22.9%$672-$200
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomina…Yesin 885d10,0180.9¢6.7¢+600.4%$666+$571
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Noin 9d12,36979.8¢5.3¢-93.3%$662-$9.2K
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yesin 150d1,06181.5¢59.5¢-27.0%$631-$233
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?Noin 208d67231.8¢93.3¢+193.1%$627+$413
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yesin 24d2,15934.0¢28.5¢-16.2%$615-$119
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?Noin 208d74648.0¢82.0¢+70.8%$612+$254
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Noin 208d2,36166.1¢25.5¢-61.4%$602-$958
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by Jun…Noin 24d60391.4¢97.9¢+7.1%$590+$39
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Noin 208d76677.8¢77.0¢-1.0%$590-$6
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31,…Noin 208d62391.0¢94.5¢+3.8%$589+$22
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026…Noin 150d1,06166.9¢54.5¢-18.5%$578-$131
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israe…Noin 208d83855.0¢66.0¢+20.0%$553+$92
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Go…Yesin 73d60477.8¢91.5¢+17.6%$553+$83
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes65591.1¢83.5¢-8.4%$547-$50
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?Noin 209d69068.9¢75.5¢+9.6%$521+$46
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?Noin 208d55592.0¢92.5¢+0.5%$513+$3
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomin…Yesin 885d30,3830.7¢1.7¢+130.7%$501+$284
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?No55579.0¢90.3¢+14.3%$501+$63
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B?Noin 209d70761.2¢70.5¢+15.3%$498+$66
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?Yes54192.0¢92.0¢0.0%$498$0
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yesin 150d1,17270.7¢41.5¢-41.3%$486-$342
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida G…Noin 73d51289.4¢92.0¢+2.9%$471+$13
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?Yesin 208d8,4636.5¢5.5¢-15.2%$465-$84
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Noin 208d55583.0¢82.5¢-0.6%$458-$3
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before…Noin 24d50088.0¢91.0¢+3.5%$455+$15
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes56490.0¢80.0¢-11.1%$451-$56
Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yesin 24d45321.0¢98.3¢+367.9%$445+$350
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market clos…Yesin 24d2,0664.6¢21.5¢+368.0%$444+$349
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?Noin 208d68872.9¢59.5¢-18.4%$409-$92
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomi…Yesin 885d18,8672.2¢2.1¢-5.4%$387-$22
Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at marke…Noin 24d38889.2¢98.7¢+10.6%$383+$37
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential ele…Yesin 328d11,0613.7¢3.5¢-7.1%$382-$29
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league champ…Yesin 298d8,8755.1¢4.3¢-17.1%$377-$78
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Noin 208d2,75857.6¢13.5¢-76.5%$372-$1.2K
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June…Yesin 24d3,21222.0¢11.5¢-47.7%$369-$337
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in p…Noin 573d43093.0¢82.0¢-11.8%$352-$47
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republica…Noin 66d36959.2¢90.5¢+53.0%$334+$116
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yesin 24d1,30563.6¢24.5¢-61.5%$320-$510
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Noin 24d33936.0¢92.0¢+155.2%$312+$190
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?No36187.0¢82.0¢-5.7%$296-$18
US recession by end of 2026?Yesin 239d1,55528.0¢18.5¢-33.9%$288-$148
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Noin 208d33389.0¢85.0¢-4.5%$283-$13
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league champi…Yesin 298d5,5554.1¢5.1¢+23.2%$281+$53
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic openi…Yesin 208d1,55510.0¢15.5¢+55.0%$241+$86
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years…Noin 573d29088.1¢82.0¢-6.9%$238-$18
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at mar…Yesin 24d1,5996.4¢14.5¢+128.6%$233+$131
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No48861.7¢44.5¢-27.9%$217-$84
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No51041.0¢42.0¢+2.4%$214+$5
Clavicular sentenced to prison?Noin 208d25181.0¢84.0¢+3.7%$211+$8
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes51041.5¢41.0¢-1.2%$209-$3
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?Yesin 24d2,55645.3¢7.8¢-82.8%$199-$959
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential…Yesin 885d7,5003.5¢2.5¢-27.4%$191-$72
Obama federally charged before 2027?Noin 208d20090.1¢92.1¢+2.2%$184+$4
Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?Yes18989.0¢91.8¢+3.1%$174+$5
Discord IPO before 2027?Noin 208d42720.3¢40.0¢+97.0%$171+$84
SBF released from custody in 2026?Yesin 208d4,91412.8¢3.5¢-73.0%$170-$459
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?Yesin 208d55582.3¢30.5¢-63.0%$169-$288
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYesin 150d37521.7¢43.5¢+100.0%$163+$82
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Noin 208d17294.0¢92.3¢-1.8%$159-$3
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor e…Yesin 150d1,0202.2¢15.6¢+595.2%$159+$136
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Noin 208d35439.8¢44.5¢+11.7%$158+$17
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league champions…Noin 298d17087.0¢92.5¢+6.3%$157+$9
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Noin 208d25023.0¢60.0¢+160.9%$150+$93
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?Noin 208d22386.6¢66.0¢-23.7%$147-$46
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?No24476.0¢60.0¢-21.1%$146-$39
Ledger IPO before 2027?Noin 208d16525.0¢87.5¢+250.0%$144+$103
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United…Yesin 208d2,3288.0¢5.5¢-31.3%$128-$58
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in…Yes81036.7¢15.0¢-59.1%$122-$176
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d7,3182.1¢1.7¢-21.4%$121-$33
Maduro guilty of all counts?Yesin 573d55537.0¢20.5¢-44.6%$114-$92
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory b…Yesin 208d1,11016.5¢9.5¢-42.4%$105-$78
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at mark…Yesin 573d55516.0¢17.5¢+9.4%$97+$8
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Noin 150d21779.4¢41.0¢-48.4%$89-$84
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes18861.0¢44.5¢-27.0%$84-$31
Will Hank Kroll win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yesin 150d1,0202.2¢8.2¢+266.6%$84+$61
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yesin 298d1,0766.0¢7.5¢+25.0%$81+$16
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?Noin 116d7,2738.0¢1.1¢-86.3%$80-$502
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Noin 43d65763.0¢11.5¢-81.7%$76-$338
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 20…No51036.5¢14.5¢-60.3%$74-$112
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?No48824.7¢15.0¢-39.2%$73-$47
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomi…Yesin 885d6,9020.2¢1.1¢+425.0%$72+$59
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond?Yesin 24d4,7643.0¢1.5¢-50.1%$71-$72
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d3,1542.7¢2.3¢-17.4%$71-$15
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026…Noin 150d13931.0¢45.5¢+46.8%$63+$20
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?No15561.0¢40.0¢-34.4%$62-$33
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d1,5300.6¢4.0¢+617.1%$62+$53
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in pr…Yesin 573d24338.0¢24.5¢-35.5%$60-$33
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseYesin 150d2,7044.2¢1.9¢-55.0%$51-$63
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yesin 126d1,1111.7¢4.3¢+146.2%$48+$28
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United…Yesin 208d3,3523.4¢1.4¢-59.3%$47-$68
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Jun…Noin 11d3,3547.0¢1.4¢-80.7%$45-$190
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Noin 24d2,41156.0¢1.8¢-96.8%$43-$1.3K
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Yesin 24d97527.1¢4.3¢-84.1%$42-$222
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years…Yesin 573d1,36514.3¢2.8¢-80.8%$38-$158
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d1,5300.6¢2.3¢+298.4%$34+$26
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Yesin 166d13626.0¢23.5¢-9.6%$32-$3
Fed rate hike in 2026?Noin 186d5885.0¢49.5¢-41.8%$29-$21
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 20…Yes2991.0¢93.2¢+2.4%$27+$1
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d1,5300.6¢1.8¢+209.8%$27+$18
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie…Yesin 208d55530.0¢4.1¢-86.3%$23-$144
Will Matt Claman win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yesin 150d1,0202.2¢2.1¢-4.3%$22-$1
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yesin 24d2222.0¢99.0¢+350.0%$22+$17
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?Noin 54d4061.0¢54.0¢-11.5%$22-$3
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d1,5300.6¢1.3¢+121.3%$19+$10
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?Noin 24d51056.0¢3.5¢-93.8%$18-$268
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d1,5300.6¢1.1¢+103.6%$18+$9
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yesin 126d1,6631.5¢1.1¢-30.0%$17-$7
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseYesin 150d9927.0¢17.5¢-35.2%$17-$9
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?Yesin 208d2165.0¢7.5¢+50.0%$16+$5
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d1,5300.6¢1.1¢+85.9%$16+$7
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yesin 150d7782.2¢1.9¢-12.8%$15-$2
Will the Democrats win the Colorado governor race in 2026?Yes1593.0¢91.5¢-1.7%$13-$0
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United K…Yesin 208d5055.7¢2.6¢-53.8%$13-$16
Will the Democrats win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?No1191.0¢96.5¢+6.0%$11+$1
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yesin 147d7217.0¢13.5¢-20.6%$10-$3
Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Noin 43d3758.0¢2.5¢-69.4%$9-$21
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in…No993.1¢95.5¢+2.5%$9+$0
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?Yesin 24d4665.5¢1.8¢-66.4%$9-$17
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?Noin 24d677.0¢95.5¢+24.0%$6+$1
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential no…Yesin 885d3403.0¢1.4¢-55.0%$5-$6
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?Yes1357.0¢2.5¢-63.7%$3-$6
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions…Noin 11d2087.0¢1.5¢-78.6%$3-$11
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yesin 208d1421.0¢15.0¢-28.6%$2-$1
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yesin 126d550.5¢2.4¢+370.0%$1+$1

Realized history

Closed positions via avg-cost matching
Market · OutcomeQtyAvg costAvg exitRealizedViaClosed
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by March 31,…No1,22295.8¢100.0¢+$51resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
US forces enter Iran by December 31?No27,46418.0¢0.0¢-$4.9Kresolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?No400,00099.9¢100.0¢+$400resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolishe…Yes7,4574.4¢0.0¢-$328resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?No58,1051.3¢0.0¢-$738resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of I…Yes2,6551.3¢0.0¢-$34resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Yes3,5923.3¢0.0¢-$119resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leade…Yes8,2400.5¢0.0¢-$45resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 20…No4,42418.9¢0.0¢-$838resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Ira…Yes24,88160.4¢100.0¢+$9.9Kresolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Ira…No38515.0¢0.0¢-$58resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No257,26099.8¢100.0¢+$397resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in April 20…No4487.2¢100.0¢+$6resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 20…Yes4,34996.0¢100.0¢+$175resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Award…No7,30823.0¢100.0¢+$5.6Kresolution2026-06-05 23:08 UTC
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes4,07637.0¢100.0¢+$2.6Kresolution2026-06-05 23:08 UTC
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology…No1,74169.6¢0.0¢-$1.2Kresolution2026-06-05 23:08 UTC
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology…Yes1,75020.0¢100.0¢+$1.4Kresolution2026-06-05 23:08 UTC
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?Yes41,1698.6¢0.0¢-$3.5Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?Yes2,40832.6¢0.0¢-$786resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?No3,60591.0¢100.0¢+$324resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Yes9,20138.2¢100.0¢+$5.7Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes5,46624.6¢100.0¢+$4.1Kresolution2026-05-26 00:00 UTC
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?No11,79792.5¢100.0¢+$890resolution2026-05-19 00:00 UTC
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?Yes77,6208.9¢0.0¢-$6.9Kresolution2026-05-19 00:00 UTC
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?Yes38,92528.6¢99.9¢+$27.8Ktrade2026-05-16 00:05 UTC
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?Yes5,87895.0¢100.0¢+$291resolution2026-05-16 00:00 UTC
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?No4858.0¢100.0¢+$20resolution2026-05-15 00:00 UTC
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?No1,68121.5¢0.0¢-$361resolution2026-05-15 00:00 UTC
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?Yes91528.6¢100.0¢+$654resolution2026-05-15 00:00 UTC
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?Yes262.5¢0.0¢-$1resolution2026-05-14 00:00 UTC
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?No58,55997.4¢100.0¢+$1.5Kresolution2026-05-14 00:00 UTC
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?Yes3,27197.2¢100.0¢+$90resolution2026-05-14 00:00 UTC
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this wee…Yes19114.3¢0.0¢-$27resolution2026-05-10 00:00 UTC
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?Yes1,1058.6¢24.7¢+$178trade2026-05-06 09:24 UTC
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?Yes998.6¢29.0¢+$20trade2026-05-06 09:18 UTC
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?No11979.9¢98.9¢+$23trade2026-05-04 18:39 UTC
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?Yes1171.0¢83.0¢+$1trade2026-04-30 00:07 UTC
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran…Yes54,4892.2¢0.0¢-$1.2Kresolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Markwayne Mullin confirmed as DHS Secretary by March 31…Yes22682.0¢100.0¢+$41resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Markwayne Mullin confirmed as DHS Secretary by April 30…Yes38184.2¢100.0¢+$60resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 25-28, 2026?No5,03899.9¢100.0¢+$6resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Markwayne Mullin confirmed as DHS Secretary by March 31…No17621.4¢0.0¢-$38resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?Yes7,23534.7¢0.0¢-$2.5Kresolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?No23656.5¢100.0¢+$103resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 1-4, 2026?Yes2,3450.3¢0.0¢-$6resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?No1,50092.0¢100.0¢+$120resolution2026-04-21 00:00 UTC
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?No1,34977.8¢0.0¢-$1.0Kresolution2026-04-07 00:00 UTC
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Yes17,7534.7¢0.0¢-$841resolution2026-04-04 00:00 UTC
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Yes67415.0¢0.0¢-$101resolution2026-04-04 00:00 UTC
80 total · page 1 of 2← Prev50 per pageNext →

Recent trades

Last 50 ingested fills
Time UTCSideSizePriceMarket
2026-06-01 18:05 UTCBUY1,0000.1¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes
2026-05-23 03:01 UTCBUY1,0997.7¢Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?Yes
2026-05-18 08:05 UTCBUY10,6092.4¢Starmer out by May 19, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-18 07:07 UTCBUY11,79792.5¢Starmer out by May 19, 2026?NoResolved
2026-05-18 07:06 UTCBUY9,23774.1¢Starmer out by May 31, 2026?No
2026-05-17 14:54 UTCBUY7,7958.4¢Starmer out by May 19, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-17 09:57 UTCBUY13,79710.0¢Starmer out by May 19, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-16 22:48 UTCBUY5,6358.5¢Starmer out by May 19, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-16 22:48 UTCBUY1008.1¢Starmer out by May 19, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-16 22:18 UTCBUY5,6308.6¢Starmer out by May 19, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-16 21:24 UTCBUY12,17612.6¢Starmer out by May 19, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-16 21:22 UTCBUY4,78010.0¢Starmer out by May 19, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-16 21:22 UTCBUY2,09485.4¢Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes
2026-05-16 18:32 UTCBUY611.7¢Starmer out by May 19, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-16 18:09 UTCBUY25,84027.9¢Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes
2026-05-16 16:46 UTCBUY6,7445.8¢Starmer out by May 31, 2026?Yes
2026-05-16 00:05 UTCSELL38,92599.9¢Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-15 09:37 UTCBUY3,72453.0¢Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?No
2026-05-15 08:10 UTCBUY1,91992.0¢Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?No
2026-05-15 07:11 UTCBUY5,23524.0¢Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes
2026-05-15 07:09 UTCBUY7,5826.0¢Starmer out by May 19, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-15 07:09 UTCBUY2,2191.1¢Starmer out by May 15, 2026?Yes
2026-05-14 17:01 UTCBUY1,7548.0¢Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kin…Yes
2026-05-14 15:59 UTCBUY5,96289.0¢Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kin…No
2026-05-14 11:43 UTCSELL10,75099.5¢Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-14 11:42 UTCBUY2016.0¢Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-14 10:30 UTCBUY3,05139.2¢Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes
2026-05-14 10:30 UTCBUY9,17724.6¢Starmer out by May 31, 2026?Yes
2026-05-14 10:19 UTCBUY6,36212.0¢Starmer out by May 19, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-13 17:35 UTCBUY3,09213.0¢Starmer out by May 19, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-13 15:49 UTCBUY8411.3¢Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United K…Yes
2026-05-13 09:41 UTCBUY1,12065.0¢Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed…No
2026-05-13 09:39 UTCBUY2,1281.5¢Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United K…Yes
2026-05-13 09:13 UTCBUY71990.0¢Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-13 09:11 UTCBUY67179.0¢Starmer out by May 31, 2026?No
2026-05-13 09:09 UTCBUY35,9514.9¢Starmer out by May 15, 2026?Yes
2026-05-11 16:02 UTCBUY17810.2¢Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week?YesResolved
2026-05-11 08:13 UTCBUY1273.1¢Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week?YesResolved
2026-05-09 04:08 UTCBUY12,15018.0¢Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes
2026-05-08 18:14 UTCBUY47746.0¢Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes
2026-05-08 18:08 UTCBUY9,20138.2¢Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-08 15:32 UTCBUY2,99796.4¢Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-08 03:35 UTCBUY19,86488.1¢Starmer out by May 15, 2026?No
2026-05-08 00:40 UTCBUY12,93288.0¢Starmer out by May 15, 2026?No
2026-05-07 23:03 UTCBUY16,81887.2¢Starmer out by May 15, 2026?No
2026-05-07 06:43 UTCBUY95223.0¢Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-07 05:18 UTCBUY5,90891.0¢Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Yes
2026-05-06 09:24 UTCSELL1,10524.7¢US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?YesResolved
2026-05-06 09:18 UTCSELL9929.0¢US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?YesResolved
2026-05-06 09:08 UTCBUY18,3289.0¢US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?YesResolved