trader profile

cocos228

0x8e5c0cc55cda93d6cae14becb3b738a44dcaa68a
Open MV$327.6K26 positions
Open PnL+$5.3K1.7% on basis
Realized PnL+$27.4K37 closed
Hit rate78%Wilson lower 63%
Volume observed$513.8K200 trades · 74 markets
Current rank—last trade 12d ago

Open book

Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
Market · OutcomeSizeAvg costCurrentΔ%MVPnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomi…Yesin 885d326,23533.1¢26.4¢-20.4%$86.0K-$22.0K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Noin 208d74,46968.8¢84.5¢+22.7%$62.9K+$11.6K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Noin 208d39,72779.9¢87.5¢+9.5%$34.8K+$3.0K
Iran leadership change by June 30?Noin 24d34,92484.9¢95.5¢+12.4%$33.4K+$3.7K
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Noin 24d25,09486.8¢95.5¢+10.0%$24.0K+$2.2K
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Noin 24d18,78482.1¢93.6¢+14.0%$17.6K+$2.2K
Iran leadership change by December 31?Noin 208d22,83165.6¢72.5¢+10.5%$16.6K+$1.6K
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yesin 208d18,91565.3¢72.0¢+10.3%$13.6K+$1.3K
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?Noin 24d5,23191.4¢97.9¢+7.1%$5.1K+$340
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yesin 44d26,39915.8¢17.1¢+7.9%$4.5K+$330
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yesin 44d25,88217.7¢17.0¢-4.2%$4.4K-$194
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yesin 44d25,87411.1¢11.2¢+0.5%$2.9K+$13
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Noin 24d2,71573.8¢96.4¢+30.5%$2.6K+$611
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yesin 44d25,6706.8¢9.3¢+37.5%$2.4K+$655
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?Noin 208d2,84465.8¢83.5¢+26.8%$2.4K+$502
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?Noin 24d2,43392.1¢96.5¢+4.8%$2.3K+$108
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yesin 44d25,9328.8¢8.9¢+1.7%$2.3K+$39
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yesin 44d25,9428.6¢8.6¢+0.5%$2.2K+$10
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2…Noin 208d2,71456.0¢66.5¢+18.7%$1.8K+$285
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yesin 44d26,1405.2¢5.5¢+6.7%$1.5K+$91
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?Noin 24d1,15287.4¢92.3¢+5.6%$1.1K+$56
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yesin 44d26,5003.2¢3.6¢+14.1%$967+$119
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?Noin 24d1,12969.5¢72.0¢+3.5%$813+$28
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?Noin 116d77872.0¢79.5¢+10.4%$618+$58
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Noin 208d2,08324.0¢23.5¢-2.1%$490-$10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yesin 24d1,94987.0¢24.5¢-71.8%$477-$1.2K

Realized history

Closed positions via avg-cost matching
Market · OutcomeQtyAvg costAvg exitRealizedViaClosed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?No6,47593.5¢0.0¢-$6.1Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No7,60097.4¢100.0¢+$197resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?No46772.8¢0.0¢-$340resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 20…No2,60596.0¢100.0¢+$105resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States block…No2,98980.0¢100.0¢+$598resolution2026-05-22 00:00 UTC
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?No19191.4¢96.7¢+$10trade2026-05-20 15:32 UTC
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?No1,06492.0¢97.0¢+$53trade2026-05-18 21:27 UTC
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No5,49992.0¢95.0¢+$165trade2026-05-17 13:05 UTC
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States block…No62986.0¢100.0¢+$88resolution2026-05-15 00:00 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No5,30187.0¢100.0¢+$689resolution2026-05-15 00:00 UTC
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No8,50092.0¢95.0¢+$255trade2026-05-08 18:07 UTC
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States block…No6,07094.3¢100.0¢+$345resolution2026-05-08 00:00 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No93477.4¢57.9¢-$183trade2026-05-04 16:21 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No1,62764.0¢33.8¢-$492trade2026-05-04 16:21 UTC
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No9,26994.9¢100.0¢+$469resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?No5,20396.1¢100.0¢+$203resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 3…No5,27894.7¢100.0¢+$278resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No13,33190.5¢100.0¢+$1.3Kresolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by…No74169.9¢100.0¢+$223resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?No4,76683.9¢100.0¢+$768resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Yes3,87098.2¢100.0¢+$71resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ap…Yes85054.0¢0.0¢-$459resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait…No9,50891.4¢100.0¢+$817resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in Ap…No3,33375.0¢100.0¢+$833resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ma…Yes1,13380.1¢29.0¢-$578trade2026-04-29 16:21 UTC
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?No6,55470.2¢100.0¢+$2.0Kresolution2026-04-24 00:00 UTC
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?No17,19962.7¢100.0¢+$6.4Kresolution2026-04-23 00:00 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No44,94082.8¢100.0¢+$7.8Kresolution2026-04-22 00:00 UTC
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No4,00097.4¢98.7¢+$52trade2026-04-21 20:11 UTC
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?No5,26375.4¢99.5¢+$1.3Ktrade2026-04-21 19:59 UTC
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?No8,87575.4¢100.0¢+$2.2Kresolution2026-04-21 00:00 UTC
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?No2,62466.3¢100.0¢+$884resolution2026-04-21 00:00 UTC
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?No11,90684.6¢100.0¢+$1.8Kresolution2026-04-21 00:00 UTC
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No1090.0¢88.0¢-$0trade2026-04-20 08:35 UTC
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?No2,63283.0¢100.0¢+$447resolution2026-04-20 00:00 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ma…Yes3,11480.1¢71.0¢-$282trade2026-04-18 11:58 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ap…Yes34554.0¢28.0¢-$90trade2026-04-18 11:57 UTC
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes078.0¢99.1¢+$0trade2026-04-12 21:05 UTC
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes4,88878.0¢100.0¢+$1.1Kresolution2026-04-12 00:00 UTC
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Yes10,07899.2¢100.0¢+$78resolution2026-04-07 00:00 UTC
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Yes89711.2¢0.0¢-$100resolution2026-03-31 00:00 UTC
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?No34,07286.5¢100.0¢+$4.6Kresolution2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?No51192.0¢100.0¢+$41resolution2025-11-30 00:00 UTC
43 total

Recent trades

Last 50 ingested fills
Time UTCSideSizePriceMarket
2026-05-24 21:00 UTCBUY76271.0¢Iran leadership change by December 31?No
2026-05-23 14:06 UTCBUY3,51486.0¢Iran leadership change by June 30?No
2026-05-20 17:22 UTCBUY28469.0¢Iran leadership change by December 31?No
2026-05-20 15:32 UTCSELL19196.7¢Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?No
2026-05-19 07:14 UTCBUY15888.0¢Iran coup attempt by June 30?No
2026-05-18 21:27 UTCBUY19286.0¢Iran leadership change by June 30?No
2026-05-18 21:27 UTCSELL1,06497.0¢Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?No
2026-05-18 11:20 UTCBUY3169.0¢Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No
2026-05-17 13:09 UTCBUY6,39188.0¢Iran leadership change by June 30?No
2026-05-17 13:08 UTCSELL6,37595.0¢Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No
2026-05-17 13:06 UTCBUY14,51970.0¢Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No
2026-05-17 13:05 UTCSELL19,12495.0¢Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No
2026-05-17 12:35 UTCBUY1670.0¢Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No
2026-05-16 11:54 UTCBUY7,78569.4¢Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No
2026-05-16 06:50 UTCBUY6,23387.0¢Iran leadership change by June 30?No
2026-05-09 10:10 UTCBUY21289.0¢Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?No
2026-05-09 10:10 UTCBUY39978.4¢Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-09 10:08 UTCBUY9279.0¢Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-08 18:09 UTCBUY32668.9¢Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?NoResolved
2026-05-08 18:08 UTCBUY4369.1¢Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?NoResolved
2026-05-08 18:07 UTCSELL8,50095.0¢Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No
2026-05-08 12:12 UTCBUY2597.9¢Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of t…NoResolved
2026-05-06 05:31 UTCBUY2,59794.9¢Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?NoResolved
2026-05-06 05:30 UTCBUY10,19666.1¢Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes
2026-05-06 00:36 UTCBUY12090.0¢Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-06 00:36 UTCBUY690.0¢Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-05 13:19 UTCBUY1,20189.9¢Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-04 16:21 UTCSELL1,54557.9¢Iran closes its airspace by May 8?NoResolved
2026-05-04 16:21 UTCSELL1,62733.8¢Iran closes its airspace by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-04 13:31 UTCBUY72577.0¢Iran closes its airspace by May 8?NoResolved
2026-05-04 12:28 UTCBUY3,50895.0¢Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?NoResolved
2026-05-04 12:04 UTCBUY1,12969.6¢Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No
2026-05-04 12:03 UTCBUY8075.0¢Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-04 11:33 UTCBUY20979.0¢Iran closes its airspace by May 8?NoResolved
2026-05-04 06:51 UTCBUY6,04594.3¢Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of t…NoResolved
2026-05-04 06:48 UTCBUY2,61291.0¢US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-04 06:46 UTCBUY188.0¢Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-04 06:46 UTCBUY83589.9¢Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-04 06:44 UTCBUY36084.0¢Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-04 06:44 UTCBUY183.0¢Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-04 06:42 UTCBUY97682.0¢Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-04 06:40 UTCBUY36986.7¢Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-04 06:40 UTCBUY50687.0¢Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-04 06:39 UTCBUY89677.0¢Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-04 06:39 UTCBUY12878.1¢Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-04 06:36 UTCBUY94087.0¢Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?No
2026-05-04 06:35 UTCBUY46772.8¢Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?NoResolved
2026-05-04 06:35 UTCBUY77872.0¢Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?No
2026-05-04 06:32 UTCBUY1,04692.0¢Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?No
2026-05-04 06:31 UTCBUY1,03347.0¢Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?No