trader profile

Arbguy

0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177
Open MV$577.4K13 positions
Open PnL+$4.9K0.8% on basis
Realized PnL$00 closed
Hit rate—Wilson lower 0%
Volume observed$3.11M331 trades · 104 markets
Current rank#34 · 30dlast trade 62d ago

Open book

Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
Market · OutcomeSizeAvg costCurrentΔ%MVPnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Noin 808d490,00050.0¢79.3¢+58.7%$388.8K+$143.8K
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 808d490,00050.0¢20.6¢-58.7%$101.2K-$143.8K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026…Yesin 73d57,48648.2¢56.5¢+17.2%$32.5K+$4.8K
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomi…Yesin 808d892,9451.3¢1.7¢+23.4%$14.7K+$2.8K
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Yesin 132d24,39065.8¢50.5¢-23.3%$12.3K-$3.7K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026…Noin 73d13,18082.0¢80.5¢-1.8%$10.6K-$198
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026…Noin 73d12,79649.8¢57.0¢+14.5%$7.3K+$925
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No17,79034.0¢37.5¢+10.3%$6.7K+$623
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes3,31054.0¢56.5¢+4.5%$1.9K+$81
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Yesin 131d12,1558.9¢5.8¢-35.2%$699-$380
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026…Yesin 73d82182.0¢80.5¢-1.8%$661-$12
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Yesin 131d8726.2¢24.0¢-8.4%$21-$2
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yesin 131d13516.0¢9.5¢-40.6%$13-$9

Realized history

Closed positions via avg-cost matching
No closed positions yet.
0 total

Recent trades

Last 50 ingested fills
Time UTCSideSizePriceMarket
2026-06-19 19:29 UTCBUY6,10530.7¢Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes
2026-06-19 13:13 UTCBUY100,0002.6¢Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes
2026-06-18 09:08 UTCBUY5,47161.0¢Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes
2026-06-18 09:05 UTCBUY6,23460.0¢Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes
2026-06-17 22:25 UTCBUY17,11188.1¢Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Yes
2026-06-17 11:30 UTCBUY5,38480.0¢Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?NoResolved
2026-06-17 11:20 UTCBUY11,12360.9¢Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?NoResolved
2026-06-16 21:46 UTCSELL16,99635.8¢Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes
2026-06-16 13:25 UTCBUY2,83193.0¢Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?NoResolved
2026-06-16 10:42 UTCBUY17,79034.0¢Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No
2026-06-15 20:48 UTCBUY1,65882.0¢Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midt…No
2026-06-15 13:43 UTCBUY3,23383.5¢US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-06-15 13:39 UTCBUY5,23787.9¢US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-06-15 13:39 UTCBUY11,04286.3¢US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-06-14 23:29 UTCBUY12,98880.6¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-06-14 23:27 UTCSELL25,26999.5¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14YesResolved
2026-06-14 16:19 UTCBUY38,06718.7¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-06-14 16:11 UTCBUY23,97118.5¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-06-14 15:39 UTCSELL45,0269.1¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-06-14 15:19 UTCSELL17,83310.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-06-14 12:58 UTCSELL10,03482.0¢Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midt…No
2026-06-13 17:11 UTCSELL23,50782.0¢Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midt…Yes
2026-06-13 06:44 UTCSELL51329.0¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?YesResolved
2026-06-12 16:20 UTCBUY3,33311.7¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?YesResolved
2026-06-12 16:18 UTCBUY8,45112.7¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?YesResolved
2026-06-12 16:16 UTCBUY5,5929.9¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?YesResolved
2026-06-12 16:16 UTCBUY15,7669.0¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?YesResolved
2026-06-12 00:39 UTCBUY3,08616.5¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?YesResolved
2026-06-12 00:19 UTCBUY12,55212.0¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?YesResolved
2026-06-12 00:18 UTCBUY19,29812.2¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?YesResolved
2026-06-12 00:17 UTCBUY8,34610.8¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?YesResolved
2026-06-11 19:55 UTCSELL44,68317.0¢Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes
2026-06-11 12:23 UTCBUY80,60022.0¢Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes
2026-06-09 17:03 UTCSELL2,27498.4¢Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?YesResolved
2026-06-09 13:51 UTCSELL26,9987.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-06-09 13:51 UTCSELL6,2978.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-06-08 22:02 UTCSELL52052.2¢Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport…NoResolved
2026-06-08 10:44 UTCBUY100,0005.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-06-08 09:45 UTCBUY12,50075.0¢Israel closes its airspace by June 8?NoResolved
2026-06-07 23:58 UTCBUY2009.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-06-07 22:52 UTCSELL31,32199.7¢Iran closes its airspace by June 8?YesResolved
2026-06-07 22:41 UTCBUY31,16894.6¢Iran closes its airspace by June 8?YesResolved
2026-06-07 22:15 UTCSELL3,5283.8¢Iran closes its airspace by June 8?NoResolved
2026-06-07 21:00 UTCSELL2,68394.4¢Iran closes its airspace by June 8?YesResolved
2026-06-07 20:02 UTCBUY1,03665.2¢Iran closes its airspace by June 8?YesResolved
2026-06-07 20:01 UTCSELL7,50034.3¢Iran closes its airspace by June 8?NoResolved
2026-06-06 20:50 UTCBUY16,4967.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-06-05 18:28 UTCBUY47,03811.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-06-05 18:01 UTCSELL5,95899.9¢Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 20…Yes
2026-06-05 17:56 UTCBUY41595.4¢Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 20…Yes