trader profile

Arbguy

0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177
Open MV$152.0K19 positions
Open PnL-$55.3K-26.7% on basis
Realized PnL$00 closed
Hit rate—Wilson lower 0%
Volume observed$2.83M277 trades · 88 markets
Current rank—last trade 3d ago

Open book

Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
Market · OutcomeSizeAvg costCurrentΔ%MVPnL
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026…Yesin 150d57,48648.2¢53.5¢+11.0%$30.8K+$3.1K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yesin 9d205,38613.5¢12.5¢-7.5%$25.7K-$2.1K
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomi…Yesin 885d892,9451.3¢2.4¢+75.8%$21.0K+$9.0K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026…Yesin 150d23,50782.0¢81.5¢-0.6%$19.2K-$125
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yesin 24d470,57411.5¢2.5¢-78.0%$12.0K-$42.3K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yesin 1d198,6456.9¢5.5¢-19.8%$10.9K-$2.7K
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Yesin 209d19,78569.5¢54.5¢-21.6%$10.8K-$3.0K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026…Noin 150d10,03485.0¢80.5¢-5.3%$8.1K-$452
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026…Noin 150d12,79649.8¢53.5¢+7.5%$6.8K+$478
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Yesin 24d37,91347.2¢9.5¢-79.9%$3.6K-$14.3K
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June…Yesin 24d21,28920.0¢9.5¢-52.5%$2.0K-$2.2K
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Yesin 208d12,1558.9¢6.9¢-22.9%$833-$247
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes18855.0¢60.5¢+10.0%$114+$10
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in…Noin 55d2,3143.5¢4.0¢+12.9%$91+$10
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ma…Yesin 55d2,05026.0¢3.3¢-87.5%$67-$466
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yesin 24d1,6662.5¢2.6¢+6.0%$44+$2
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Yesin 208d8726.2¢28.0¢+6.9%$24+$2
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yesin 208d13516.0¢12.5¢-21.9%$17-$5
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 202…Noin 150d862.6¢85.4¢+36.3%$7+$2

Realized history

Closed positions via avg-cost matching
No closed positions yet.
0 total

Recent trades

Last 50 ingested fills
Time UTCSideSizePriceMarket
2026-06-02 09:16 UTCBUY12,6967.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes
2026-06-02 09:16 UTCBUY92,4037.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes
2026-06-02 08:11 UTCBUY52,49515.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes
2026-06-01 16:36 UTCBUY12,33322.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes
2026-06-01 15:31 UTCBUY21,59822.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes
2026-06-01 13:15 UTCSELL19,40413.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes
2026-06-01 12:26 UTCBUY10,09327.6¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No
2026-06-01 07:59 UTCBUY65,2657.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes
2026-05-27 16:16 UTCSELL20,04617.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-27 14:40 UTCBUY1,00021.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-27 01:11 UTCBUY61,63224.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-26 14:04 UTCSELL58,7181.6¢Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?No
2026-05-26 14:00 UTCSELL85,9752.2¢Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?No
2026-05-26 13:57 UTCSELL114,3293.2¢Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?No
2026-05-26 00:51 UTCBUY138,6922.5¢Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?No
2026-05-26 00:51 UTCBUY60,6922.0¢Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?No
2026-05-26 00:40 UTCBUY67,2152.2¢Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?No
2026-05-25 02:46 UTCBUY97,9328.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-25 02:28 UTCSELL13,21599.9¢Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland Count…NoResolved
2026-05-24 01:48 UTCSELL8,65326.0¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31,…YesResolved
2026-05-23 18:26 UTCSELL6,87491.0¢Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes
2026-05-23 14:06 UTCBUY32,60722.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-22 13:44 UTCSELL33,72426.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-21 17:56 UTCBUY7,23780.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?NoResolved
2026-05-21 17:51 UTCBUY9,7639.4¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-21 17:34 UTCBUY17,65710.4¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-21 17:19 UTCBUY6,57118.8¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-21 17:15 UTCBUY1,47610.2¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-21 17:13 UTCBUY14,1758.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-20 15:17 UTCBUY16,83080.0¢Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes
2026-05-20 14:49 UTCSELL16,32891.8¢Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of t…NoResolved
2026-05-20 14:43 UTCBUY38,9269.7¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31,…YesResolved
2026-05-20 14:28 UTCBUY12,77122.0¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30,…Yes
2026-05-20 14:19 UTCBUY10,09637.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes
2026-05-20 14:18 UTCBUY19,67416.5¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-20 14:18 UTCSELL74,98631.4¢Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes
2026-05-20 14:18 UTCSELL87,31630.3¢Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes
2026-05-20 14:17 UTCBUY26,80336.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes
2026-05-20 14:17 UTCBUY12,46049.4¢Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Yes
2026-05-20 14:17 UTCBUY16,08782.2¢Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes
2026-05-19 20:32 UTCSELL11,70899.9¢Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during…NoResolved
2026-05-19 19:36 UTCBUY8,41617.0¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30,…Yes
2026-05-19 14:39 UTCSELL26,70389.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?NoResolved
2026-05-18 22:23 UTCSELL20083.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?NoResolved
2026-05-17 18:09 UTCSELL1032.0¢Iran closes its airspace by May 24?YesResolved
2026-05-17 01:46 UTCSELL1,76996.4¢Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?No
2026-05-15 21:14 UTCBUY1041.0¢Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-15 21:14 UTCBUY20042.0¢Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-15 21:13 UTCBUY3,11144.7¢Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-15 21:12 UTCBUY6830.0¢Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?YesResolved