trader profile
polywog
0xf0d9af9effd0b4a039899901ba19a05ea1a3e4ee
Open MV$171.1K7 positions
Open PnL+$54.3K46.5% on basis
Realized PnL+$232.0K49 closed
Hit rate67%Wilson lower 53%
Volume observed$1.40M221 trades · 72 markets
Current rank—last trade 11d ago
Open book
Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
| Market · Outcome | Size | Avg cost | Current | Δ% | MV | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Noin 208d | 116,602 | 50.9¢ | 86.5¢ | +69.8% | $100.9K | +$41.5K |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Yesin 25d | 68,679 | 48.0¢ | 57.5¢ | +19.8% | $39.5K | +$6.5K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yesin 24d | 46,568 | 35.0¢ | 42.5¢ | +21.3% | $19.8K | +$3.5K |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Noin 24d | 6,237 | 67.6¢ | 97.4¢ | +44.0% | $6.1K | +$1.9K |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?Noin 208d | 5,000 | 34.0¢ | 71.0¢ | +108.8% | $3.5K | +$1.8K |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yesin 24d | 3,266 | 54.9¢ | 23.0¢ | -58.1% | $751 | -$1.0K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yesin 1d | 1,501 | 25.4¢ | 36.5¢ | +43.8% | $548 | +$167 |
Realized history
Closed positions via avg-cost matching
| Market · Outcome | Qty | Avg cost | Avg exit | Realized | Via | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No | 34,091 | 98.5¢ | 100.0¢ | +$501 | resolution | 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes | 413 | 91.7¢ | 100.0¢ | +$34 | resolution | 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Nether…Yes | 214 | 36.3¢ | 100.0¢ | +$136 | resolution | 2026-07-31 00:00 UTC |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Yes | 38,289 | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3.1K | resolution | 2026-05-27 06:54 UTC |
| Will Trump send the national guard to Chicago?Yes | 468 | 26.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$126 | resolution | 2026-05-27 06:54 UTC |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes | 236,996 | 26.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$175.3K | resolution | 2026-05-27 06:54 UTC |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ap…Yes | 5,000 | 29.0¢ | 0.1¢ | -$1.4K | trade | 2026-05-08 19:42 UTC |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Yes | 1,030 | 43.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$443 | resolution | 2026-04-30 00:00 UTC |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran…Yes | 18,637 | 36.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$6.9K | resolution | 2026-04-30 00:00 UTC |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes | 33,109 | 23.9¢ | 100.0¢ | +$25.2K | resolution | 2026-04-15 00:00 UTC |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes | 147,335 | 93.7¢ | 99.9¢ | +$9.1K | trade | 2026-04-09 19:09 UTC |
| Netanyahu out by March 31?No | 40,000 | 97.6¢ | 99.9¢ | +$904 | trade | 2026-04-02 00:22 UTC |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?No | 5,000 | 46.0¢ | 1.6¢ | -$2.2K | trade | 2026-02-28 21:38 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No | 1,704 | 72.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$477 | resolution | 2026-01-31 00:00 UTC |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?No | 58,461 | 81.4¢ | 100.0¢ | +$10.9K | resolution | 2026-01-31 00:00 UTC |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meet…Yes | 46,000 | 99.3¢ | 100.0¢ | +$322 | resolution | 2026-01-28 00:00 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes | 3,446 | 50.4¢ | 19.0¢ | -$1.1K | trade | 2026-01-20 16:59 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No | 7,649 | 62.8¢ | 100.0¢ | +$2.8K | resolution | 2026-01-15 00:00 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No | 381 | 62.8¢ | 37.0¢ | -$98 | trade | 2026-01-14 22:49 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?Yes | 26,362 | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2.1K | resolution | 2026-01-14 00:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes | 187 | 11.0¢ | 44.0¢ | +$62 | trade | 2026-01-12 00:26 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No | 276 | 72.0¢ | 46.0¢ | -$72 | trade | 2026-01-11 23:54 UTC |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?No | 4,066 | 97.2¢ | 100.0¢ | +$116 | resolution | 2026-01-09 00:00 UTC |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?No | 2,037 | 82.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$367 | resolution | 2026-01-09 00:00 UTC |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday?No | 9,169 | 99.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$92 | resolution | 2026-01-07 00:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No | 127,155 | 92.5¢ | 100.0¢ | +$9.6K | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?Yes | 8,673 | 49.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4.3K | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?Yes | 57,327 | 24.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$14.3K | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year fo…No | 45,287 | 96.8¢ | 100.0¢ | +$1.4K | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| TikTok sale announced in 2025?Yes | 117 | 25.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$87 | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| US government shutdown in 2025?Yes | 67,318 | 81.2¢ | 100.0¢ | +$12.7K | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| US national Solana reserve in 2025?Yes | 576 | 9.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$52 | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No | 13,799 | 96.6¢ | 100.0¢ | +$470 | resolution | 2025-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Jos…No | 11,967 | 88.5¢ | 100.0¢ | +$1.4K | resolution | 2025-12-19 00:00 UTC |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Ye…Yes | 15,970 | 42.3¢ | 1.0¢ | -$6.6K | trade | 2025-12-10 22:38 UTC |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 mee…Yes | 48,328 | 24.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$12.1K | resolution | 2025-12-10 00:00 UTC |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December…No | 2,210 | 98.5¢ | 100.0¢ | +$33 | resolution | 2025-12-10 00:00 UTC |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2…Yes | 1,000 | 25.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$750 | resolution | 2025-12-10 00:00 UTC |
| Bills vs. TexansTexans | 2,078 | 27.9¢ | 100.0¢ | +$1.5K | resolution | 2025-11-28 00:00 UTC |
| Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?Yes | 3,311 | 25.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$835 | resolution | 2025-11-27 00:00 UTC |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Ye…Yes | 8,072 | 32.8¢ | 39.0¢ | +$500 | trade | 2025-11-21 00:13 UTC |
| Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Electio…Yes | 13,348 | 82.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$2.4K | resolution | 2025-11-04 00:00 UTC |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 20…Yes | 114,322 | 94.2¢ | 100.0¢ | +$6.7K | resolution | 2025-10-29 00:00 UTC |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?No | 1,445 | 92.0¢ | 92.0¢ | $0 | trade | 2025-10-01 15:47 UTC |
| US government shutdown by October 1?Yes | 28,168 | 89.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$3.1K | resolution | 2025-10-01 00:00 UTC |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?No | 2,250 | 95.9¢ | 100.0¢ | +$92 | resolution | 2025-09-30 00:00 UTC |
| US government shutdown in 2025?Yes | 1,962 | 80.2¢ | 84.0¢ | +$74 | trade | 2025-09-29 21:11 UTC |
| US government shutdown in 2025?Yes | 4,000 | 80.2¢ | 85.0¢ | +$191 | trade | 2025-09-29 21:02 UTC |
| US government shutdown in 2025?Yes | 11,561 | 80.4¢ | 76.8¢ | -$407 | trade | 2025-09-29 19:47 UTC |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September…Yes | 97,047 | 76.5¢ | 100.0¢ | +$22.8K | resolution | 2025-09-17 00:00 UTC |
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