trader profile

elmcap2

0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5
Open MV$8.99M35 positions
Open PnL+$49.8K0.6% on basis
Realized PnL$00 closed
Hit rate—Wilson lower 0%
Volume observed$11.75M412 trades · 161 markets
Current rank—last trade 3d ago

Open book

Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
Market · OutcomeSizeAvg costCurrentΔ%MVPnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Noin 883d7,500,00050.0¢83.7¢+67.3%$6.27M+$2.52M
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 883d7,500,00050.0¢16.4¢-67.3%$1.23M-$2.52M
Trump out as President by June 30?Noin 22d666,15894.8¢98.8¢+4.2%$657.8K+$26.2K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?Noin 22d255,24297.1¢98.6¢+1.5%$251.5K+$3.7K
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Noin 206d190,66888.1¢93.7¢+6.3%$178.6K+$10.5K
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?Noin 22d106,84596.6¢97.0¢+0.5%$103.7K+$507
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Noin 206d56,25284.9¢85.5¢+0.8%$48.1K+$362
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?Noin 22d46,93898.5¢98.9¢+0.4%$46.4K+$202
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?Noin 22d44,86896.5¢99.0¢+2.5%$44.4K+$1.1K
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31,…Noin 206d37,07490.3¢94.0¢+4.1%$34.8K+$1.4K
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?Noin 206d31,39389.1¢93.0¢+4.4%$29.2K+$1.2K
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?Noin 22d20,51988.1¢99.0¢+12.4%$20.3K+$2.2K
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?Noin 22d17,07390.8¢95.4¢+5.1%$16.3K+$791
Chirayu Rana divorced?Noin 22d10,22196.7¢98.8¢+2.2%$10.1K+$214
Will Trump be impeached by June 30?Noin 22d8,96596.2¢99.0¢+2.9%$8.9K+$246
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?Noin 206d8,80088.1¢93.0¢+5.6%$8.2K+$432
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?Noin 207d5,18990.0¢92.5¢+2.8%$4.8K+$130
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?Noin 22d3,00196.3¢98.7¢+2.5%$3.0K+$71
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?Noin 23d3,00097.2¢96.2¢-1.0%$2.9K-$30
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31,…Noin 206d2,79580.7¢89.0¢+10.4%$2.5K+$233
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?Noin 22d2,09496.1¢98.6¢+2.6%$2.1K+$51
Trump out as President before 2027?Noin 206d2,15182.9¢89.5¢+7.9%$1.9K+$141
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?Noin 22d2,00091.7¢91.5¢-0.3%$1.8K-$6
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yesin 22d1,61795.5¢98.9¢+3.6%$1.6K+$56
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?Noin 22d2,00090.0¢79.3¢-11.9%$1.6K-$215
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?Noin 22d1,02797.0¢98.7¢+1.7%$1.0K+$17
Waymo IPO before 2027?Noin 206d1,07180.2¢94.4¢+17.7%$1.0K+$152
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 3…Noin 206d96092.9¢95.3¢+2.6%$915+$23
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yesin 206d1,00091.0¢91.5¢+0.5%$915+$5
Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026?Noin 22d45895.9¢97.3¢+1.4%$445+$6
Will Dreamcash launch a token by June 30, 2026?Noin 207d34694.0¢96.9¢+3.1%$335+$10
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?No26695.0¢97.5¢+2.6%$259+$7
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?Noin 22d23198.0¢98.9¢+0.9%$228+$2
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?Noin 206d17381.9¢90.5¢+10.5%$157+$15
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at…Yesin 206d16385.0¢88.0¢+3.5%$143+$5

Realized history

Closed positions via avg-cost matching
No closed positions yet.
0 total

Recent trades

Last 50 ingested fills
Time UTCSideSizePriceMarket
2026-06-04 03:53 UTCBUY4,17998.7¢Trump out as President by June 30?No
2026-06-03 21:46 UTCSELL1,66698.7¢Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close…No
2026-06-03 21:46 UTCSELL8,03898.6¢Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes
2026-06-03 21:45 UTCSELL10099.0¢Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?No
2026-06-03 21:45 UTCSELL3,78299.1¢Will Trump be impeached by June 30?No
2026-06-03 21:45 UTCSELL4,77798.9¢Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes
2026-06-03 21:43 UTCSELL17,30798.6¢Trump out as President by June 30?No
2026-06-03 21:43 UTCSELL8,19598.1¢Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?No
2026-06-03 16:28 UTCSELL25599.2¢Xi Jinping out by June 30?No
2026-06-03 13:26 UTCSELL16599.5¢Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?No
2026-06-03 00:19 UTCBUY278,04499.5¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No
2026-06-03 00:07 UTCBUY144,49199.4¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No
2026-06-03 00:06 UTCBUY273,97899.4¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No
2026-06-03 00:06 UTCBUY206,21199.3¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No
2026-06-02 12:15 UTCBUY298,90499.1¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No
2026-06-01 21:20 UTCSELL239,92799.7¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No
2026-06-01 13:32 UTCSELL7,00298.1¢Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?No
2026-06-01 04:06 UTCBUY65,16599.9¢US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?NoResolved
2026-06-01 01:27 UTCBUY5,36199.9¢Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?NoResolved
2026-06-01 01:25 UTCBUY24,91098.0¢Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?No
2026-06-01 01:21 UTCBUY10,76599.9¢Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormu…NoResolved
2026-05-31 22:53 UTCBUY32099.9¢Tucker Carlson arrested by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-31 22:52 UTCBUY3,00899.9¢US bank failure by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-31 18:17 UTCBUY1,61199.9¢US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?No
2026-05-31 14:14 UTCBUY18199.7¢Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormu…NoResolved
2026-05-31 14:11 UTCBUY2,49499.0¢Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes
2026-05-31 13:59 UTCBUY98099.9¢Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May 2026?NoResolved
2026-05-31 06:49 UTCBUY15099.9¢US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-31 06:48 UTCBUY1,31890.0¢Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?No
2026-05-31 06:46 UTCBUY8,93199.9¢Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31…NoResolved
2026-05-31 06:45 UTCBUY2,44099.9¢Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May…NoResolved
2026-05-31 06:45 UTCBUY4,23399.9¢Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by…NoResolved
2026-05-31 06:41 UTCBUY598.0¢Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?No
2026-05-31 06:35 UTCBUY6,81799.0¢Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?No
2026-05-31 06:34 UTCBUY2,43098.9¢Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?No
2026-05-30 23:27 UTCBUY33299.9¢Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?NoResolved
2026-05-30 20:05 UTCBUY112,85099.8¢US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-30 20:00 UTCBUY27198.9¢Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?No
2026-05-30 11:07 UTCBUY23098.0¢Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?No
2026-05-30 11:03 UTCBUY19998.8¢Trump out as President by June 30?No
2026-05-30 10:51 UTCBUY16499.9¢Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market…YesResolved
2026-05-30 10:51 UTCBUY2,50099.9¢Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market…YesResolved
2026-05-30 10:48 UTCBUY12,00099.9¢Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by mar…YesResolved
2026-05-30 10:44 UTCBUY23,05699.9¢Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?NoResolved
2026-05-30 10:40 UTCBUY584.0¢UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyw…Sergei PavlovichResolved
2026-05-30 10:37 UTCBUY1,94683.0¢UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweigh…Jake MatthewsResolved
2026-05-30 10:34 UTCBUY12,15099.9¢Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-30 10:33 UTCBUY59,66899.9¢Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?No
2026-05-30 10:21 UTCBUY2,02264.0¢UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight,…Luis Felipe DiasResolved
2026-05-30 10:20 UTCBUY4582.0¢UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweigh…Jake MatthewsResolved