trader profile

steeplejack

0xcf6087abd66e16b59a122d45bfcdc05d4b7247ce
Open MV$137.9K5 positions
Open PnL+$20.1K17.1% on basis
Realized PnL-$75.5K53 closed
Hit rate45%Wilson lower 33%
Volume observed$2.86M250 trades · 68 markets
Current ranklast trade 10d ago

Open book

Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
Market · OutcomeSizeAvg costCurrentΔ%MVPnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec…Yesin 1d138,01461.6¢77.5¢+25.8%$107.0K+$21.9K
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian preside…Noin 1d33,60467.8¢78.2¢+15.3%$26.3K+$3.5K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yesin 25d16,10056.0¢18.9¢-66.2%$3.0K-$6.0K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yesin 9d5,40818.0¢30.5¢+69.4%$1.6K+$676
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?Yesin 208d2031.0¢22.0¢-29.0%$4-$2

Realized history

Closed positions via avg-cost matching
Market · OutcomeQtyAvg costAvg exitRealizedViaClosed
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?No4,30837.1¢0.0¢-$1.6Kresolution2027-01-01 00:00 UTC
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Yes2,1007.0¢0.0¢-$147resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Yes54,88756.4¢0.0¢-$30.9Kresolution2026-05-26 00:00 UTC
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes1,78963.0¢100.0¢+$662resolution2026-05-26 00:00 UTC
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz betw…Yes3,0503.6¢0.0¢-$110resolution2026-05-24 00:00 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?No10070.0¢100.0¢+$30resolution2026-05-24 00:00 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Yes15544.5¢58.4¢+$22trade2026-05-23 10:07 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Yes13,39647.8¢29.5¢-$2.5Ktrade2026-05-23 09:32 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Yes94147.8¢31.0¢-$158trade2026-05-23 09:23 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Yes3,00047.8¢31.0¢-$503trade2026-05-23 09:23 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes4,77118.0¢30.0¢+$573trade2026-05-22 21:34 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Yes10,2682.9¢0.0¢-$300resolution2026-05-22 00:00 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Yes13,50016.8¢0.0¢-$2.3Kresolution2026-05-21 00:00 UTC
Trump kiss by May 31?No65.0¢40.0¢+$2trade2026-05-20 06:00 UTC
Trump kiss by May 31?No955.0¢36.0¢+$29trade2026-05-20 05:20 UTC
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential…Yes8,54363.9¢68.0¢+$351trade2026-05-20 00:47 UTC
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Yes5,96752.7¢100.0¢+$2.8Kresolution2026-05-19 00:00 UTC
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?No3,62655.2¢100.0¢+$1.6Kresolution2026-05-19 00:00 UTC
76ers vs. Knicks76ers18,4050.1¢0.1¢$0trade2026-05-05 02:07 UTC
76ers vs. Knicks76ers6,0320.1¢0.0¢-$6resolution2026-05-05 00:00 UTC
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?No19,5054.2¢1.0¢-$623trade2026-04-30 20:26 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ap…Yes169,38219.1¢0.2¢-$32.0Ktrade2026-04-30 06:45 UTC
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes79,94488.8¢99.3¢+$8.4Ktrade2026-04-30 01:27 UTC
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States block…Yes22,15410.1¢0.0¢-$2.2Kresolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No30,63674.0¢100.0¢+$8.0Kresolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Yes1,10010.0¢0.0¢-$110resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes80,65499.8¢100.0¢+$161resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran…Yes20,85114.9¢0.0¢-$3.1Kresolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Yes3,70823.9¢0.0¢-$888resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ap…No30350.0¢100.0¢+$151resolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ap…Yes15,12619.1¢0.3¢-$2.8Ktrade2026-04-29 21:47 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No31,43743.0¢57.0¢+$4.4Ktrade2026-04-28 13:38 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No6,43043.0¢46.0¢+$193trade2026-04-24 18:51 UTC
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?No25534.0¢100.0¢+$168resolution2026-04-24 00:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States block…Yes13,3103.6¢2.0¢-$211trade2026-04-23 17:40 UTC
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States block…Yes11,2613.6¢2.9¢-$79trade2026-04-23 17:08 UTC
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?No10,95437.1¢3.0¢-$3.7Ktrade2026-04-23 16:16 UTC
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?No40037.1¢6.0¢-$124trade2026-04-23 15:04 UTC
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?No9,27437.1¢3.5¢-$3.1Ktrade2026-04-23 14:59 UTC
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?No6,06237.1¢10.1¢-$1.6Ktrade2026-04-23 14:59 UTC
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?No7,20437.1¢27.2¢-$714trade2026-04-23 14:26 UTC
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States block…Yes21,8583.6¢0.0¢-$787resolution2026-04-23 00:00 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No48,11674.0¢84.0¢+$4.8Ktrade2026-04-22 16:45 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No5,84974.0¢82.0¢+$468trade2026-04-22 13:21 UTC
Rockets vs. LakersLakers337.0¢100.0¢+$2resolution2026-04-22 00:00 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No10974.0¢73.0¢-$1trade2026-04-21 20:15 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No20,58974.0¢74.2¢+$36trade2026-04-21 20:11 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ap…Yes8,67127.2¢12.0¢-$1.3Ktrade2026-04-21 19:53 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Yes2,00821.0¢3.2¢-$357trade2026-04-21 19:39 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ap…Yes47,26627.2¢19.0¢-$3.9Ktrade2026-04-21 19:39 UTC
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Recent trades

Last 50 ingested fills
Time UTCSideSizePriceMarket
2026-05-26 01:23 UTCBUY14269.0¢Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidentia…No
2026-05-26 01:23 UTCBUY1,73068.6¢Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes
2026-05-26 01:15 UTCBUY10366.9¢Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidentia…No
2026-05-23 22:49 UTCSELL84285.0¢Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico VerhoevenUsykResolved
2026-05-23 22:03 UTCBUY40,11756.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-23 21:57 UTCBUY20066.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-23 21:53 UTCBUY7,09758.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-23 21:35 UTCBUY3,22058.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-23 21:31 UTCBUY69556.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-23 21:21 UTCBUY81862.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-23 21:17 UTCBUY172,82166.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-23 21:15 UTCBUY2,08862.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-23 21:13 UTCBUY2,94154.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-23 20:59 UTCBUY3,0503.6¢Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May…YesResolved
2026-05-23 10:07 UTCSELL15558.4¢Iran closes its airspace by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-23 09:54 UTCSELL2,00035.5¢Iran closes its airspace by May 24?YesResolved
2026-05-23 09:51 UTCSELL25,13933.3¢Iran closes its airspace by May 24?YesResolved
2026-05-23 09:49 UTCSELL2,94640.3¢Iran closes its airspace by May 24?YesResolved
2026-05-23 09:40 UTCSELL21,90230.3¢Iran closes its airspace by May 24?YesResolved
2026-05-23 09:38 UTCSELL7629.1¢Iran closes its airspace by May 24?YesResolved
2026-05-23 09:32 UTCSELL14,56429.5¢Iran closes its airspace by May 24?YesResolved
2026-05-23 09:23 UTCSELL94131.0¢Iran closes its airspace by May 24?YesResolved
2026-05-23 09:23 UTCSELL3,00031.0¢Iran closes its airspace by May 24?YesResolved
2026-05-22 22:49 UTCBUY1,44597.9¢Iran closes its airspace by May 24?YesResolved
2026-05-22 22:26 UTCBUY1,57298.9¢Iran closes its airspace by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-22 22:01 UTCBUY41096.0¢Iran closes its airspace by May 27?YesResolved
2026-05-22 21:59 UTCBUY2,23296.0¢Iran closes its airspace by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-22 21:59 UTCBUY5,34396.0¢Iran closes its airspace by May 27?YesResolved
2026-05-22 21:59 UTCBUY2,01095.0¢Iran closes its airspace by May 27?YesResolved
2026-05-22 21:48 UTCBUY4,08792.0¢Iran closes its airspace by May 24?YesResolved
2026-05-22 21:47 UTCBUY78386.0¢Iran closes its airspace by May 24?YesResolved
2026-05-22 21:34 UTCSELL4,77130.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes
2026-05-22 21:29 UTCBUY27962.7¢Iran closes its airspace by May 27?YesResolved
2026-05-22 21:29 UTCBUY50358.0¢Iran closes its airspace by May 24?YesResolved
2026-05-22 21:29 UTCBUY21657.0¢Iran closes its airspace by May 24?YesResolved
2026-05-22 21:29 UTCBUY28356.3¢Iran closes its airspace by May 27?YesResolved
2026-05-22 21:25 UTCBUY10070.0¢Iran closes its airspace by May 24?NoResolved
2026-05-22 21:18 UTCBUY6,6311.1¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-22 20:43 UTCBUY24319.0¢Iran closes its airspace by May 24?YesResolved
2026-05-22 20:36 UTCBUY10,06019.7¢Iran closes its airspace by May 24?YesResolved
2026-05-22 20:33 UTCBUY21,18435.0¢Iran closes its airspace by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-21 22:07 UTCBUY83,5043.9¢US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-20 23:32 UTCBUY3,5396.3¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-20 23:22 UTCBUY985.7¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-20 06:40 UTCBUY2031.0¢FDA approves Retatrutide this year?Yes
2026-05-20 06:36 UTCBUY5,64915.0¢US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-20 06:00 UTCSELL640.0¢Trump kiss by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-20 05:20 UTCSELL9536.0¢Trump kiss by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-20 04:58 UTCBUY10,18018.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes
2026-05-20 02:38 UTCBUY6,4945.0¢Trump kiss by May 31?NoResolved