trader profile
betwick
0xc851cd9bee7d262afd78674f861f9f576a12cd2a
Open MV$32.4K5 positions
Open PnL+$8.4K35.1% on basis
Realized PnL-$266.6K64 closed
Hit rate47%Wilson lower 35%
Volume observed$2.24M231 trades · 77 markets
Current rank—last trade 2d ago
Open book
Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
| Market · Outcome | Size | Avg cost | Current | Δ% | MV | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yesin 208d | 18,759 | 12.2¢ | 69.3¢ | +465.9% | $13.0K | +$10.7K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yesin 9d | 72,563 | 14.0¢ | 14.5¢ | +3.6% | $10.5K | +$363 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yesin 1d | 217,899 | 5.0¢ | 3.9¢ | -23.0% | $8.4K | -$2.5K |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yesin 24d | 1,624 | 38.1¢ | 31.5¢ | -17.4% | $512 | -$108 |
| Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30?Yesin 24d | 70 | 29.0¢ | 2.9¢ | -89.8% | $2 | -$18 |
Realized history
Closed positions via avg-cost matching
| Market · Outcome | Qty | Avg cost | Avg exit | Realized | Via | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?No | 24,169 | 29.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$7.0K | resolution | 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No | 103,599 | 97.6¢ | 100.0¢ | +$2.5K | resolution | 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31?No | 147,860 | 34.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$51.3K | resolution | 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolishe…No | 543 | 60.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$217 | resolution | 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?No | 42,680 | 27.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$11.7K | resolution | 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026?No | 12,469 | 86.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$1.7K | resolution | 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?No | 199,383 | 38.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$76.5K | resolution | 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No | 1,997 | 55.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1.1K | resolution | 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?Yes | 3,073 | 74.5¢ | 100.0¢ | +$783 | resolution | 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC |
| Will JD Vance clap between 20–29 times during the State…Yes | 2,365 | 3.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$77 | resolution | 2026-06-04 17:08 UTC |
| Will JD Vance clap between 30–39 times during the State…Yes | 2,970 | 2.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$67 | resolution | 2026-06-04 17:08 UTC |
| Will JD Vance clap between 40–49 times during the State…Yes | 1,377 | 1.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$15 | resolution | 2026-06-04 17:08 UTC |
| Will JD Vance clap between 50–59 times during the State…Yes | 3,449 | 1.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$64 | resolution | 2026-06-04 17:08 UTC |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes | 33,773 | 28.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$9.5K | resolution | 2026-05-31 00:00 UTC |
| US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?Yes | 4,161 | 24.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1.0K | resolution | 2026-05-31 00:00 UTC |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ma…Yes | 106,638 | 10.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10.6K | resolution | 2026-05-31 00:00 UTC |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Yes | 1,687 | 98.6¢ | 100.0¢ | +$24 | resolution | 2026-05-15 00:00 UTC |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?No | 1,576 | 54.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$862 | resolution | 2026-05-15 00:00 UTC |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Yes | 255,632 | 8.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$21.4K | resolution | 2026-05-15 00:00 UTC |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Yes | 6,655 | 13.2¢ | 28.1¢ | +$992 | trade | 2026-05-07 15:30 UTC |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Yes | 66,666 | 13.2¢ | 24.0¢ | +$7.2K | trade | 2026-05-07 14:30 UTC |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?No | 6,790 | 63.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4.3K | resolution | 2026-04-30 00:00 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30?No | 96,191 | 29.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$28.3K | resolution | 2026-04-30 00:00 UTC |
| Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United…Yes | 1,109 | 66.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$377 | resolution | 2026-04-30 00:00 UTC |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Yes | 246,197 | 0.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1.8K | resolution | 2026-04-30 00:00 UTC |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ap…Yes | 176,896 | 19.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$33.6K | resolution | 2026-04-30 00:00 UTC |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ap…Yes | 39,466 | 27.4¢ | 15.0¢ | -$4.9K | trade | 2026-04-21 20:28 UTC |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran…Yes | 3,240 | 14.0¢ | 5.0¢ | -$292 | trade | 2026-04-21 13:22 UTC |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?No | 17,915 | 99.7¢ | 100.0¢ | +$54 | resolution | 2026-04-21 00:00 UTC |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ap…Yes | 34,000 | 26.9¢ | 40.0¢ | +$4.5K | trade | 2026-04-18 08:25 UTC |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 1…No | 29,668 | 99.3¢ | 100.0¢ | +$217 | resolution | 2026-04-15 00:00 UTC |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?No | 2,671 | 63.8¢ | 57.4¢ | -$170 | trade | 2026-04-10 09:22 UTC |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?No | 1,291 | 63.8¢ | 58.8¢ | -$65 | trade | 2026-04-10 09:22 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30?No | 27,311 | 29.4¢ | 1.0¢ | -$7.8K | trade | 2026-04-07 22:22 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30?No | 14,367 | 29.4¢ | 0.9¢ | -$4.1K | trade | 2026-04-07 22:13 UTC |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes | 23,214 | 81.4¢ | 100.0¢ | +$4.3K | resolution | 2026-04-07 00:00 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30?No | 7,593 | 39.4¢ | 11.0¢ | -$2.2K | trade | 2026-04-03 16:12 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30?No | 10,276 | 39.4¢ | 16.0¢ | -$2.4K | trade | 2026-04-03 15:44 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30?No | 30,000 | 39.4¢ | 14.0¢ | -$7.6K | trade | 2026-04-03 15:26 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30?No | 8,956 | 39.4¢ | 15.0¢ | -$2.2K | trade | 2026-04-03 15:23 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30?No | 41,000 | 39.4¢ | 16.5¢ | -$9.4K | trade | 2026-04-03 15:22 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to…No | 11,090 | 98.1¢ | 100.0¢ | +$209 | resolution | 2026-04-01 00:00 UTC |
| Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?No | 266 | 75.6¢ | 100.0¢ | +$65 | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Netanyahu out by March 31?No | 53,761 | 93.9¢ | 100.0¢ | +$3.3K | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?No | 123,272 | 88.2¢ | 100.0¢ | +$14.5K | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31?No | 150,293 | 94.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$9.0K | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?Yes | 2,403 | 89.4¢ | 100.0¢ | +$255 | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?No | 4,863 | 4.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$224 | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by…Yes | 9 | 39.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$5 | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?No | 50,000 | 94.5¢ | 100.0¢ | +$2.8K | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
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