trader profile
polywally
0xc5d343df2e64662ca50a4d37333c183e515ad640
Open MV$54.8K1 positions
Open PnL-$61.8K-53.0% on basis
Realized PnL+$45.9K24 closed
Hit rate75%Wilson lower 55%
Volume observed$364.7K54 trades · 28 markets
Current rank—last trade 3d ago
Open book
Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
| Market · Outcome | Size | Avg cost | Current | Δ% | MV | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yesin 24d | 312,914 | 37.3¢ | 17.5¢ | -53.0% | $54.8K | -$61.8K |
Realized history
Closed positions via avg-cost matching
| Market · Outcome | Qty | Avg cost | Avg exit | Realized | Via | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes | 53,055 | 36.9¢ | 100.0¢ | +$33.5K | resolution | 2026-06-05 08:08 UTC |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ma…Yes | 93,720 | 22.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$21.2K | resolution | 2026-05-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States block…Yes | 100 | 48.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$48 | resolution | 2026-05-31 00:00 UTC |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Yes | 6,878 | 13.5¢ | 100.0¢ | +$5.9K | resolution | 2026-05-31 00:00 UTC |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes | 22,501 | 57.8¢ | 100.0¢ | +$9.5K | resolution | 2026-04-15 00:00 UTC |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes | 14,841 | 66.9¢ | 100.0¢ | +$4.9K | resolution | 2026-04-07 00:00 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31?No | 6,997 | 94.6¢ | 100.0¢ | +$378 | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| US government shutdown Saturday?Yes | 45,408 | 91.7¢ | 99.7¢ | +$3.6K | trade | 2026-02-02 19:09 UTC |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meet…Yes | 8,659 | 93.1¢ | 100.0¢ | +$597 | resolution | 2026-01-28 00:00 UTC |
| Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Elect…No | 11,999 | 86.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$1.7K | resolution | 2025-11-04 00:00 UTC |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 20…Yes | 36,948 | 98.5¢ | 100.0¢ | +$554 | resolution | 2025-10-29 00:00 UTC |
| US government shutdown by October 1?Yes | 5,042 | 93.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$353 | resolution | 2025-10-01 00:00 UTC |
| Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days?Yes | 60 | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 | resolution | 2025-04-29 00:00 UTC |
| Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?Yes | 2,000 | 67.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$660 | resolution | 2025-04-29 00:00 UTC |
| Egypt/Jordan agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before…No | 343 | 87.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$45 | resolution | 2025-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?Yes | 19,165 | 98.8¢ | 100.0¢ | +$231 | resolution | 2025-01-20 00:00 UTC |
| Will Biden finish his term?Yes | 3,800 | 70.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$1.1K | resolution | 2025-01-20 00:00 UTC |
| MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment?No | 10,652 | 90.4¢ | 100.0¢ | +$1.0K | resolution | 2024-12-10 00:00 UTC |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential e…Yes | 66 | 54.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$36 | resolution | 2024-12-08 00:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift endorse Kamala Harris?Yes | 11,471 | 73.7¢ | 100.0¢ | +$3.0K | resolution | 2024-11-04 00:00 UTC |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 Republican VP n…No | 4,943 | 95.2¢ | 100.0¢ | +$239 | resolution | 2024-09-06 00:00 UTC |
| Will the Director of Secret Service be fired/resign?No | 211 | 74.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$157 | resolution | 2024-08-31 00:00 UTC |
| Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC?No | 9,000 | 99.1¢ | 100.0¢ | +$81 | resolution | 2024-08-22 00:00 UTC |
| Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?Yes | 1,115 | 9.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$107 | resolution | 2024-07-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?Yes | 400 | 9.6¢ | 9.8¢ | +$1 | trade | 2024-07-18 16:25 UTC |
25 total
Recent trades
Last 50 ingested fills