trader profile

theo5

0x8a4c788f043023b8b28a762216d037e9f148532b
Open MV$371.8K40 positions
Open PnL+$46.6K14.3% on basis
Realized PnL+$51.1K50 closed
Hit rate70%Wilson lower 56%
Volume observed$1.58M236 trades · 109 markets
Current rank—last trade 4d ago

Open book

Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
Market · OutcomeSizeAvg costCurrentΔ%MVPnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Noin 208d65,25782.8¢93.5¢+12.8%$61.0K+$6.9K
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yesin 209d107,00344.2¢56.0¢+26.8%$59.9K+$12.7K
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?Yesin 55d100,02348.0¢48.5¢+1.1%$48.5K+$507
Trump out as President by June 30?Noin 24d47,39891.9¢98.8¢+7.5%$46.8K+$3.3K
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Yesin 209d100,82635.4¢45.5¢+28.4%$45.9K+$10.2K
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No29,04289.2¢95.7¢+7.3%$27.8K+$1.9K
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Noin 208d28,91090.5¢93.5¢+3.3%$27.0K+$851
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Yesin 209d26,86717.7¢46.0¢+160.1%$12.4K+$7.6K
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Yesin 209d17,00046.0¢57.5¢+25.0%$9.8K+$2.0K
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yesin 208d7,89567.5¢73.5¢+8.9%$5.8K+$472
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yesin 209d5,00027.5¢73.0¢+165.9%$3.6K+$2.3K
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Yesin 209d16,73010.3¢21.5¢+108.3%$3.6K+$1.9K
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No3,79868.5¢77.5¢+13.2%$2.9K+$343
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential…Yesin 885d77,6803.9¢2.6¢-32.2%$2.1K-$979
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yesin 24d11,84559.1¢16.5¢-72.1%$2.0K-$5.0K
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Yesin 573d2,00098.0¢97.0¢-1.0%$1.9K-$19
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yesin 209d4,40020.5¢38.5¢+87.5%$1.7K+$790
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes2,00067.0¢73.5¢+9.7%$1.5K+$130
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?Yesin 208d5,80018.0¢22.0¢+22.2%$1.3K+$232
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?Yesin 209d5,60012.0¢17.5¢+45.8%$980+$308
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market clos…Yesin 24d2,9275.4¢31.4¢+481.4%$919+$761
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yesin 44d15,0005.5¢5.8¢+4.5%$863+$38
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market…Yesin 208d3,91621.2¢17.5¢-17.6%$685-$146
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?Yesin 209d60073.6¢88.0¢+19.6%$528+$86
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?Yesin 25d6,0009.7¢7.0¢-27.6%$420-$160
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yesin 44d15,0002.8¢2.5¢-9.3%$381-$39
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?Yesin 209d1,71917.8¢19.0¢+6.7%$327+$20
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market ca…Yesin 208d2,7007.9¢10.7¢+34.9%$289+$75
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yesin 885d18,7851.8¢1.1¢-36.5%$216-$124
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Yesin 573d2,61712.3¢7.5¢-38.9%$196-$125
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state electi…Noin 106d26860.6¢69.5¢+14.7%$186+$24
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at mar…Yesin 24d8085.0¢13.6¢+173.8%$110+$70
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market c…Noin 208d26745.0¢32.5¢-27.8%$87-$33
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?Noin 573d50022.0¢16.0¢-27.3%$80-$30
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at m…Yesin 573d2,4441.2¢1.2¢-2.5%$29-$1
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close…Yesin 24d8240.8¢3.1¢+297.7%$26+$19
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Yesin 209d6553.2¢3.4¢+5.5%$22+$1
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at mark…Yesin 573d5005.7¢3.9¢-32.1%$20-$9
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at mark…Yesin 573d6782.8¢1.6¢-42.9%$11-$8
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at mark…Yesin 573d6373.2¢1.3¢-59.4%$8-$12

Realized history

Closed positions via avg-cost matching
Market · OutcomeQtyAvg costAvg exitRealizedViaClosed
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Yes15,75515.0¢0.0¢-$2.4Kresolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No184,00099.1¢100.0¢+$1.7Kresolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
xAI IPO before 2027?No38191.0¢100.0¢+$34resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Hu…Yes1,28391.4¢100.0¢+$111resolution2026-06-30 00:00 UTC
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Yes27017.7¢46.0¢+$76trade2026-06-01 06:22 UTC
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Yes5,00017.7¢34.1¢+$820trade2026-05-29 17:03 UTC
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?Yes2,40012.0¢18.0¢+$144trade2026-05-28 19:44 UTC
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No4,00082.9¢93.5¢+$426trade2026-05-28 19:14 UTC
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December…Yes3,00035.4¢46.0¢+$317trade2026-05-28 19:00 UTC
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by Decembe…Yes2,00044.2¢60.0¢+$316trade2026-05-26 16:34 UTC
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December…Yes532.0¢76.0¢+$2trade2026-05-25 11:53 UTC
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December…Yes19,50012.9¢34.0¢+$4.1Ktrade2026-05-25 07:43 UTC
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December…Yes135.4¢45.0¢+$0trade2026-05-25 07:40 UTC
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?Yes6,20017.8¢33.1¢+$950trade2026-05-24 20:41 UTC
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No20,00091.6¢94.7¢+$613trade2026-05-24 19:01 UTC
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Yes3,00017.7¢39.3¢+$649trade2026-05-21 17:01 UTC
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Yes2,00017.7¢41.0¢+$466trade2026-05-20 17:44 UTC
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Yes1,75117.7¢89.0¢+$1.2Ktrade2026-05-19 17:41 UTC
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?No10,00090.3¢100.0¢+$970resolution2026-05-19 00:00 UTC
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes2,00058.9¢65.0¢+$121trade2026-05-18 06:46 UTC
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?Yes2,00059.0¢28.8¢-$604trade2026-05-18 06:44 UTC
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes8,35258.9¢67.4¢+$709trade2026-05-18 06:43 UTC
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes1,38063.8¢46.0¢-$246trade2026-05-12 10:58 UTC
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?No100,00099.9¢100.0¢+$100resolution2026-04-21 00:00 UTC
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes1112.0¢36.0¢+$3trade2026-04-04 12:43 UTC
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store…No2,20149.6¢0.0¢-$1.1Kresolution2026-04-03 00:00 UTC
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State CyclonesIowa State Cyclones37,42567.0¢67.0¢$0trade2026-03-22 14:21 UTC
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State CyclonesIowa State Cyclones1,02667.0¢100.0¢+$339resolution2026-03-22 00:00 UTC
Troy Trojans vs. Nebraska CornhuskersNebraska Cornhuskers15,28795.0¢98.3¢+$504trade2026-03-19 17:38 UTC
Troy Trojans vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers: O/U 137.5Under15648.0¢100.0¢+$81resolution2026-03-19 00:00 UTC
Troy Trojans vs. Nebraska CornhuskersTroy Trojans49,9851.8¢0.0¢-$900resolution2026-03-19 00:00 UTC
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Saint Mary's Gaels: O/U 146.5Under1,53346.7¢100.0¢+$817resolution2026-03-19 00:00 UTC
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Acade…Yes10,24433.0¢0.0¢-$3.4Kresolution2026-03-15 00:00 UTC
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Wü…Yes6,50579.3¢9.3¢-$4.6Ktrade2026-03-09 01:10 UTC
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Wü…Yes2,77379.3¢13.9¢-$1.8Ktrade2026-03-08 23:39 UTC
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Wü…Yes90079.3¢12.6¢-$600trade2026-03-08 23:33 UTC
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Wü…No93.1¢2.0¢-$0trade2026-03-08 23:11 UTC
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Wü…Yes8879.3¢50.0¢-$26trade2026-03-08 21:40 UTC
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Wü…Yes79679.3¢76.5¢-$22trade2026-03-08 21:26 UTC
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Wü…No5,0594.4¢21.9¢+$885trade2026-03-08 20:59 UTC
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Wü…No25,0884.4¢21.7¢+$4.3Ktrade2026-03-08 20:57 UTC
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Wü…No14,9044.4¢30.0¢+$3.8Ktrade2026-03-08 20:53 UTC
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württembe…Yes15,1844.9¢22.3¢+$2.6Ktrade2026-03-08 20:49 UTC
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württembe…Yes13,3714.9¢18.0¢+$1.7Ktrade2026-03-08 20:46 UTC
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Wü…No9,0914.4¢19.0¢+$1.3Ktrade2026-03-08 20:46 UTC
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Wü…No5,0004.4¢16.9¢+$624trade2026-03-08 20:45 UTC
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württembe…Yes9,9834.9¢17.0¢+$1.2Ktrade2026-03-08 20:45 UTC
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Wü…No9,8004.4¢16.8¢+$1.2Ktrade2026-03-08 20:43 UTC
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Wü…No9,1313.1¢0.0¢-$281resolution2026-03-08 00:00 UTC
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 B…Yes4,1283.1¢0.0¢-$127resolution2026-03-08 00:00 UTC
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Recent trades

Last 50 ingested fills
Time UTCSideSizePriceMarket
2026-06-01 06:22 UTCSELL27046.0¢Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Yes
2026-05-29 17:03 UTCSELL5,00034.1¢Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Yes
2026-05-28 19:44 UTCSELL2,40018.0¢Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?Yes
2026-05-28 19:14 UTCSELL4,00093.5¢Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No
2026-05-28 19:00 UTCSELL3,00046.0¢Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-28 18:14 UTCBUY1,68195.3¢Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?Yes
2026-05-26 19:49 UTCBUY1303.2¢Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-26 16:34 UTCSELL2,00060.0¢Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-26 16:32 UTCSELL14,52695.0¢Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No
2026-05-25 17:02 UTCBUY5452.0¢Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-25 11:53 UTCSELL576.0¢Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-25 07:43 UTCSELL19,50034.0¢Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-25 07:40 UTCSELL145.0¢Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-24 20:41 UTCSELL6,20033.1¢Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?Yes
2026-05-24 19:01 UTCSELL20,00094.7¢Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No
2026-05-24 18:56 UTCBUY99,00038.0¢Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-24 18:55 UTCBUY79,96351.0¢Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-23 22:49 UTCSELL14,73098.7¢Trump out as President by June 30?No
2026-05-22 20:01 UTCBUY77692.2¢Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?Yes
2026-05-21 17:02 UTCBUY60073.6¢Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?Yes
2026-05-21 17:01 UTCSELL3,00039.3¢Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Yes
2026-05-20 20:48 UTCBUY33297.9¢Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Yes
2026-05-20 17:44 UTCSELL2,00041.0¢Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Yes
2026-05-20 17:07 UTCBUY2,00097.0¢Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?Yes
2026-05-20 17:02 UTCBUY6,0009.7¢Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?Yes
2026-05-20 17:01 UTCBUY4,42193.6¢Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?Yes
2026-05-20 17:01 UTCBUY4,49881.0¢Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?Yes
2026-05-20 17:00 UTCBUY2,00049.0¢Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?Yes
2026-05-20 16:56 UTCBUY5,00027.5¢Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-20 16:52 UTCBUY4,40020.5¢Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-20 16:47 UTCBUY8,00012.0¢Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?Yes
2026-05-20 16:45 UTCBUY7,91917.8¢Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?Yes
2026-05-20 16:41 UTCBUY7990.8¢Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on…Yes
2026-05-20 16:40 UTCBUY8085.0¢Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market…Yes
2026-05-19 22:39 UTCBUY3,50015.0¢Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-19 21:05 UTCBUY2,70012.0¢Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-19 18:11 UTCBUY14,00010.0¢Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-19 18:11 UTCBUY7,00013.0¢Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-19 18:10 UTCBUY9,00012.0¢Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-19 18:10 UTCBUY15,00018.4¢Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-19 18:09 UTCBUY29,00025.3¢Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-19 17:41 UTCSELL1,75189.0¢Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Yes
2026-05-19 17:38 UTCBUY38,88817.7¢Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Yes
2026-05-19 17:07 UTCBUY532.0¢Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yes
2026-05-19 16:54 UTCBUY2,00050.0¢Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Yes
2026-05-19 16:53 UTCBUY17,00045.5¢Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Yes
2026-05-18 06:47 UTCBUY10,00090.3¢Starmer out by May 19, 2026?NoResolved
2026-05-18 06:46 UTCSELL2,00065.0¢Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes
2026-05-18 06:44 UTCBUY7,00071.5¢Starmer out by May 31, 2026?No
2026-05-18 06:44 UTCBUY3,00071.2¢Starmer out by May 31, 2026?No