trader profile

hopedieslast

0x5739ddf8672627ce076eff5f444610a250075f1a
Open MV$284.4K28 positions
Open PnL-$12.4K-4.2% on basis
Realized PnL+$1.8K35 closed
Hit rate57%Wilson lower 41%
Volume observed$549.0K174 trades · 64 markets
Current rank—last trade 5d ago

Open book

Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
Market · OutcomeSizeAvg costCurrentΔ%MVPnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Noin 24d94,57768.3¢77.5¢+13.5%$73.3K+$8.7K
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June…Noin 24d65,00867.0¢90.5¢+35.0%$58.8K+$15.2K
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Noin 24d54,29954.8¢66.5¢+21.3%$36.1K+$6.3K
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yesin 208d35,26483.3¢77.5¢-7.0%$27.3K-$2.1K
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yesin 208d112,19934.6¢16.5¢-52.4%$18.5K-$20.3K
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Noin 208d36,22448.8¢46.5¢-4.7%$16.8K-$824
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Noin 208d34,29838.5¢31.0¢-19.4%$10.6K-$2.6K
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by Dece…Noin 208d14,50050.6¢61.5¢+21.5%$8.9K+$1.6K
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?Yesin 298d49,29514.9¢14.5¢-3.0%$7.1K-$223
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Noin 9d4,70569.2¢84.5¢+22.1%$4.0K+$720
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Noin 208d11,61132.6¢29.5¢-9.5%$3.4K-$360
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Noin 55d5,45446.0¢61.5¢+33.7%$3.4K+$845
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Noin 55d5,21150.0¢60.0¢+20.0%$3.1K+$521
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic mee…Noin 24d2,39241.1¢69.0¢+67.9%$1.7K+$668
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?Yesin 208d8,40431.7¢18.5¢-41.7%$1.6K-$1.1K
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?Yesin 208d4,35447.0¢33.5¢-28.7%$1.5K-$588
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yesin 24d52,4905.1¢2.8¢-46.5%$1.4K-$1.3K
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2…Yesin 208d3,72250.0¢33.5¢-33.0%$1.2K-$614
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic mee…Noin 24d2,15638.6¢52.3¢+35.5%$1.1K+$295
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Noin 24d1,24467.0¢78.5¢+17.2%$977+$143
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Yesin 24d31,66656.5¢3.0¢-94.7%$950-$16.9K
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?Yesin 208d2,47735.0¢31.5¢-10.0%$780-$87
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?Yesin 208d2,53824.0¢23.5¢-2.1%$596-$13
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Yesin 208d2,16029.0¢26.5¢-8.6%$572-$54
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?Yesin 55d2,43323.0¢14.0¢-39.1%$341-$219
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?Yesin 24d40355.0¢26.2¢-52.4%$105-$116
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Yesin 24d2,2474.8¢2.1¢-56.2%$47-$61
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?Yesin 208d4712.0¢15.0¢+25.0%$7+$1

Realized history

Closed positions via avg-cost matching
Market · OutcomeQtyAvg costAvg exitRealizedViaClosed
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?No24,67941.3¢0.0¢-$10.2Kresolution2026-06-30 00:00 UTC
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by…No7,07488.0¢100.0¢+$851resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by…No23,11583.4¢100.0¢+$3.8Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes1,2204.1¢0.0¢-$50resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States block…Yes3,09574.5¢0.0¢-$2.3Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States block…Yes074.5¢49.0¢-$0trade2026-05-29 18:15 UTC
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?No8,73337.0¢100.0¢+$5.5Kresolution2026-04-30 00:00 UTC
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Yes1,00015.0¢0.0¢-$150resolution2026-04-12 00:00 UTC
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?No6,90837.0¢2.0¢-$2.4Ktrade2026-04-07 23:17 UTC
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No9,47748.0¢88.0¢+$3.8Ktrade2026-04-02 17:17 UTC
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?No6,66885.9¢100.0¢+$942resolution2026-03-31 00:00 UTC
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?Yes1,89783.0¢19.0¢-$1.2Ktrade2026-03-06 00:27 UTC
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No6,8159.7¢0.2¢-$647trade2026-03-01 07:13 UTC
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?No80098.5¢100.0¢+$12resolution2026-02-28 00:00 UTC
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?No1,32323.0¢25.0¢+$26trade2026-02-21 04:06 UTC
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?No2,95986.0¢100.0¢+$414resolution2026-01-31 00:00 UTC
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?Yes2067.0¢71.0¢+$1trade2026-01-06 19:11 UTC
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?No30399.9¢100.0¢+$0resolution2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territo…Yes20026.0¢0.0¢-$52resolution2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?No6,62499.9¢100.0¢+$7resolution2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?No25,90996.0¢100.0¢+$1.0Kresolution2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?Yes2,20013.0¢0.0¢-$286resolution2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kurs…No10049.0¢100.0¢+$51resolution2025-12-31 00:00 UTC
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?Yes4,98466.0¢3.1¢-$3.1Ktrade2025-12-23 03:25 UTC
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?Yes8066.0¢3.3¢-$50trade2025-12-23 03:24 UTC
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by Dece…Yes520.0¢1.4¢-$1trade2025-12-19 11:34 UTC
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?Yes5,33481.0¢100.0¢+$1.0Kresolution2025-10-31 00:00 UTC
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?No1,64999.9¢100.0¢+$2resolution2025-09-30 00:00 UTC
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?Yes15,92849.3¢100.0¢+$8.1Kresolution2025-08-31 00:00 UTC
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?Yes10,33017.0¢0.2¢-$1.7Ktrade2025-06-30 04:27 UTC
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?Yes14,72417.0¢0.0¢-$2.5Kresolution2025-06-30 00:00 UTC
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30?Yes1,35814.8¢0.0¢-$202resolution2025-06-30 00:00 UTC
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?No70,00997.4¢100.0¢+$1.8Kresolution2025-06-30 00:00 UTC
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?Yes20,00058.0¢100.0¢+$8.4Kresolution2025-06-30 00:00 UTC
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?Yes75016.0¢0.0¢-$120resolution2025-06-30 00:00 UTC
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?Yes60717.0¢0.2¢-$102trade2025-06-29 15:25 UTC
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days?Yes14090.0¢100.0¢+$14resolution2025-04-29 00:00 UTC
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No20,00091.1¢99.7¢+$1.7Ktrade2025-04-22 17:55 UTC
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No63,11291.1¢100.0¢+$5.6Kresolution2025-04-20 00:00 UTC
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No49191.8¢83.0¢-$43trade2025-04-19 15:00 UTC
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No50091.8¢87.8¢-$20trade2025-04-19 14:52 UTC
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No5,00091.8¢87.9¢-$194trade2025-04-19 14:44 UTC
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No4,25493.6¢72.9¢-$879trade2025-04-19 14:31 UTC
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No2,00093.6¢53.0¢-$810trade2025-04-19 14:26 UTC
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No8,00093.6¢50.1¢-$3.5Ktrade2025-04-19 14:23 UTC
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No2,00093.6¢50.2¢-$867trade2025-04-19 14:23 UTC
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No20,00093.6¢44.0¢-$9.9Ktrade2025-04-19 14:11 UTC
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No10,00093.6¢30.2¢-$6.3Ktrade2025-04-19 14:09 UTC
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No20,00067.5¢93.0¢+$5.1Ktrade2025-03-30 15:51 UTC
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?No2,20039.0¢70.0¢+$682trade2025-03-28 21:20 UTC
51 total · page 1 of 2← Prev50 per pageNext →

Recent trades

Last 50 ingested fills
Time UTCSideSizePriceMarket
2026-05-31 15:15 UTCBUY10,00088.3¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31,…NoResolved
2026-05-31 15:14 UTCSELL10,00098.5¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?NoResolved
2026-05-31 15:12 UTCBUY12,00079.5¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31,…NoResolved
2026-05-31 15:12 UTCSELL9,39498.6¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?NoResolved
2026-05-31 15:10 UTCBUY90079.7¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31,…NoResolved
2026-05-29 18:15 UTCSELL049.0¢Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of t…YesResolved
2026-05-29 17:50 UTCBUY2,00076.0¢Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of t…YesResolved
2026-05-29 16:03 UTCBUY1,00072.0¢Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of t…YesResolved
2026-05-29 16:02 UTCBUY9670.0¢Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of t…YesResolved
2026-05-28 00:41 UTCBUY1,00087.4¢Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-26 23:52 UTCBUY21589.9¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31,…NoResolved
2026-05-26 20:05 UTCBUY67083.2¢Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-23 03:15 UTCSELL6150.2¢Iran closes its airspace by June 15?No
2026-05-23 03:15 UTCSELL1,7900.2¢Iran closes its airspace by June 30?No
2026-05-23 03:14 UTCSELL3,3950.3¢Iran closes its airspace by June 15?No
2026-05-23 03:13 UTCSELL1,0000.4¢Iran closes its airspace by June 15?No
2026-05-22 19:05 UTCSELL3,56554.0¢Iran closes its airspace by June 30?No
2026-05-21 17:14 UTCBUY1,2204.1¢US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-18 01:57 UTCBUY2,2474.8¢Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Yes
2026-05-08 19:20 UTCBUY25059.9¢Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?No
2026-05-04 18:00 UTCBUY4,00091.0¢Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?NoResolved
2026-04-30 12:32 UTCBUY1,40482.0¢Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?NoResolved
2026-04-24 18:33 UTCBUY8,73337.0¢US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?NoResolved
2026-04-24 12:19 UTCBUY2,54946.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No
2026-04-24 00:43 UTCSELL6,62899.2¢Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?NoResolved
2026-04-24 00:27 UTCBUY4,55553.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No
2026-04-13 22:34 UTCSELL5,04512.0¢Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?NoResolved
2026-04-13 11:23 UTCSELL6005.4¢Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?Yes
2026-04-12 14:54 UTCBUY1,00015.0¢Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?YesResolved
2026-04-11 12:25 UTCSELL2,00320.0¢Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June…No
2026-04-07 23:19 UTCSELL9,9391.5¢US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?NoResolved
2026-04-07 23:17 UTCSELL40,0002.0¢US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?NoResolved
2026-04-07 23:15 UTCSELL1,4225.2¢US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?NoResolved
2026-04-02 17:17 UTCSELL70,00988.0¢Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No
2026-04-02 12:12 UTCSELL10,23196.7¢Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?NoResolved
2026-03-31 19:46 UTCSELL71019.0¢Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?Yes
2026-03-31 19:44 UTCSELL22511.0¢Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?YesResolved
2026-03-23 20:28 UTCBUY6,90837.0¢US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?NoResolved
2026-03-13 00:51 UTCBUY45124.0¢Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?Yes
2026-03-11 17:25 UTCSELL2,3625.0¢Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?YesResolved
2026-03-10 16:51 UTCSELL2,6965.0¢Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?YesResolved
2026-03-10 16:51 UTCSELL6726.0¢Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?YesResolved
2026-03-10 03:42 UTCSELL8198.0¢Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?YesResolved
2026-03-09 11:58 UTCSELL3,6368.0¢Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?YesResolved
2026-03-09 11:58 UTCSELL6379.0¢Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?YesResolved
2026-03-09 00:28 UTCSELL5,99210.0¢Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?YesResolved
2026-03-09 00:27 UTCSELL26311.0¢Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?YesResolved
2026-03-06 00:27 UTCSELL3,90019.0¢Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?YesResolved
2026-03-05 00:42 UTCSELL1,64619.0¢Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-03-04 12:06 UTCSELL5696.0¢Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?YesResolved