trader profile
luckyfly
0x413f29bc7f5ce2a2d8d28fb3a8b5d75199d247f3
Open MV$43.0K9 positions
Open PnL+$14.1K48.6% on basis
Realized PnL+$1.1K86 closed
Hit rate53%Wilson lower 43%
Volume observed$236.6K200 trades · 103 markets
Current rank—last trade 6d ago
Open book
Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
| Market · Outcome | Size | Avg cost | Current | Δ% | MV | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yesin 25d | 30,000 | 18.0¢ | 57.0¢ | +216.7% | $17.1K | +$11.7K |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Rus…Noin 116d | 30,000 | 27.0¢ | 44.5¢ | +64.7% | $13.3K | +$5.2K |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Yesin 209d | 9,000 | 61.0¢ | 50.5¢ | -17.2% | $4.5K | -$945 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Noin 24d | 2,500 | 69.0¢ | 98.2¢ | +42.3% | $2.5K | +$729 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yesin 208d | 3,000 | 77.0¢ | 77.0¢ | 0.0% | $2.3K | $0 |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russia…Yesin 116d | 5,000 | 25.7¢ | 33.4¢ | +29.8% | $1.7K | +$383 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yesin 208d | 6,712 | 37.0¢ | 16.5¢ | -55.4% | $1.1K | -$1.4K |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Yesin 208d | 5,421 | 18.4¢ | 6.3¢ | -65.6% | $344 | -$656 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30?Yesin 24d | 7,000 | 16.0¢ | 1.7¢ | -89.7% | $116 | -$1.0K |
Realized history
Closed positions via avg-cost matching
| Market · Outcome | Qty | Avg cost | Avg exit | Realized | Via | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?No | 1,211 | 6.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$79 | resolution | 2027-01-01 00:00 UTC |
| Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes | 70 | 44.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$31 | resolution | 2027-01-01 00:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?Yes | 52 | 4.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 | resolution | 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes | 893 | 78.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$196 | resolution | 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Ira…Yes | 506 | 71.7¢ | 100.0¢ | +$143 | resolution | 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes | 3,000 | 62.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$1.1K | resolution | 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Yes | 1,500 | 67.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$495 | resolution | 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?Yes | 1,214 | 41.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$716 | resolution | 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes | 210 | 28.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$151 | resolution | 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?No | 84 | 72.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$24 | resolution | 2026-06-01 16:08 UTC |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Yes | 7,236 | 12.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$868 | resolution | 2026-06-01 16:08 UTC |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?Yes | 3,778 | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$227 | resolution | 2026-06-01 16:08 UTC |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes | 2,110 | 42.1¢ | 100.0¢ | +$1.2K | resolution | 2026-06-01 16:08 UTC |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?Yes | 9,459 | 38.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3.6K | resolution | 2026-06-01 16:08 UTC |
| Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?No | 322 | 31.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$100 | resolution | 2026-05-22 00:00 UTC |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?No | 953 | 50.4¢ | 100.0¢ | +$473 | resolution | 2026-05-16 00:00 UTC |
| Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 202…Yes | 88 | 55.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$49 | resolution | 2026-05-16 00:00 UTC |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?Yes | 200 | 98.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$4 | resolution | 2026-05-15 00:00 UTC |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?Yes | 1,379 | 18.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$248 | resolution | 2026-05-05 00:00 UTC |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Yes | 10,000 | 15.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1.5K | resolution | 2026-04-30 00:00 UTC |
| Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?Yes | 529 | 18.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$95 | resolution | 2026-04-30 00:00 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes | 2,500 | 99.8¢ | 100.0¢ | +$5 | resolution | 2026-04-30 00:00 UTC |
| Will FK Spartak Moskva win on 2026-04-26?Yes | 570 | 41.4¢ | 100.0¢ | +$334 | resolution | 2026-04-26 00:00 UTC |
| Dota 2: Heroic vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Grou…Virtus.pro | 578 | 39.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$226 | resolution | 2026-04-20 00:00 UTC |
| Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Mirra Andreeva vs Anastasia…Mirra Andreeva | 1,319 | 53.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$620 | resolution | 2026-04-19 00:00 UTC |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes | 459 | 97.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$14 | resolution | 2026-04-15 00:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13?Yes | 1,434 | 31.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$445 | resolution | 2026-04-13 00:00 UTC |
| Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5Over | 907 | 41.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$372 | resolution | 2026-04-12 00:00 UTC |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Yes | 3,393 | 98.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$68 | resolution | 2026-04-10 00:00 UTC |
| DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?No | 225 | 50.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$112 | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?Yes | 6,909 | 2.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$165 | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?No | 55 | 79.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$11 | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategyNo | 10 | 37.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$6 | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon…Yes | 387 | 70.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$116 | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Netanyahu out by March 31?Yes | 23,765 | 5.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1.4K | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March…Yes | 849 | 14.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$119 | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31?Yes | 40,625 | 19.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$7.8K | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran…No | 2,000 | 66.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$680 | resolution | 2026-03-31 00:00 UTC |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?No | 1,789 | 6.5¢ | 0.4¢ | -$109 | trade | 2026-03-24 20:25 UTC |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?No | 1,000 | 6.5¢ | 0.4¢ | -$61 | trade | 2026-03-24 20:03 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14?Yes | 1,329 | 18.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$249 | resolution | 2026-03-01 00:00 UTC |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of Februa…Yes | 2,594 | 15.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$391 | resolution | 2026-02-28 00:00 UTC |
| Qatar Total Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena RybakinaRybakina | 46 | 73.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$12 | resolution | 2026-02-18 00:00 UTC |
| Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-16?Yes | 1,450 | 84.1¢ | 100.0¢ | +$231 | resolution | 2026-02-16 00:00 UTC |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11?Yes | 1,500 | 48.0¢ | 100.0¢ | +$780 | resolution | 2026-02-11 00:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?Yes | 8,000 | 56.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4.5K | resolution | 2026-02-10 00:00 UTC |
| Will Casa Pia AC vs. FC Porto end in a draw?Yes | 5 | 37.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 | resolution | 2026-02-02 00:00 UTC |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM…Natus Vincere | 78 | 66.3¢ | 100.0¢ | +$26 | resolution | 2026-01-31 00:00 UTC |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-31?Yes | 5 | 50.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 | resolution | 2026-01-31 00:00 UTC |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes | 8,000 | 30.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2.4K | resolution | 2026-01-31 00:00 UTC |
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