trader profile

debased

0x24c8cf69a0e0a17eee21f69d29752bfa32e823e1
Open MV$53.9K51 positions
Open PnL+$3.7K7.3% on basis
Realized PnL+$12.8K110 closed
Hit rate65%Wilson lower 55%
Volume observed$3.61M1,222 trades · 151 markets
Current rank—last trade 2d ago

Open book

Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
Market · OutcomeSizeAvg costCurrentΔ%MVPnL
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?Noin 208d10,62476.7¢84.5¢+10.2%$9.0K+$829
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Noin 208d7,89793.5¢93.3¢-0.2%$7.4K-$16
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026…Yesin 150d30,00011.1¢19.5¢+75.5%$5.8K+$2.5K
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Yesin 24d5,42091.8¢97.5¢+6.2%$5.3K+$306
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026…Noin 150d23,14619.5¢18.5¢-5.0%$4.3K-$227
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (M…Noin 11d3,22997.0¢98.6¢+1.6%$3.2K+$50
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?Noin 208d1,44892.0¢92.0¢+0.0%$1.3K+$0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNoin 150d2,22255.0¢55.5¢+0.9%$1.2K+$11
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?No1,11193.1¢98.6¢+5.9%$1.1K+$61
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Noin 24d1,08688.9¢95.0¢+6.8%$1.0K+$66
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Yesin 208d1,45467.9¢67.0¢-1.3%$974-$13
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Noin 208d1,13175.9¢84.5¢+11.3%$956+$97
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yesin 55d2,50238.1¢38.0¢-0.3%$951-$2
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2…Noin 150d1,00091.7¢93.2¢+1.6%$932+$15
New pandemic in 2026?Noin 208d1,02988.0¢87.5¢-0.6%$900-$5
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June…Noin 24d2,16031.8¢39.5¢+24.3%$853+$167
Iran leadership change by December 31?Noin 208d1,16160.0¢72.5¢+20.8%$842+$145
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Noin 208d84381.5¢92.0¢+12.9%$776+$88
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Noin 24d67097.1¢97.4¢+0.3%$652+$2
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Noin 208d91957.9¢69.5¢+20.0%$639+$107
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by Dece…Yesin 208d1,40338.0¢38.0¢0.0%$533$0
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Yesin 208d4,12418.8¢12.0¢-36.2%$495-$281
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yesin 24d1,58433.9¢30.5¢-9.9%$483-$53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Noin 208d1,67422.5¢26.5¢+18.0%$444+$68
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom…Yesin 885d5,0005.6¢8.0¢+42.0%$398+$118
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Noin 208d44451.0¢84.5¢+65.7%$375+$149
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yesin 208d2,76913.0¢13.5¢+3.8%$374+$14
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Noin 208d53538.0¢59.0¢+55.3%$316+$112
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Jun…Noin 11d18,8882.4¢1.7¢-32.3%$312-$149
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian preside…Yesin 1d1,11132.4¢26.9¢-17.1%$298-$62
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?Noin 24d55526.0¢34.5¢+32.7%$191+$47
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yesin 24d1,12217.0¢17.0¢-0.1%$191-$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yesin 1d3,0554.9¢5.3¢+7.4%$162+$11
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec…Yesin 1d1982.0¢71.5¢+3403.5%$142+$138
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Yesin 208d1,32612.0¢10.5¢-12.5%$139-$20
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Noin 9d15958.8¢86.7¢+47.3%$138+$44
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes20462.0¢59.0¢-4.8%$121-$6
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yesin 208d64126.3¢14.5¢-44.8%$93-$75
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yesin 24d40968.1¢20.8¢-69.5%$85-$194
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June…Yesin 24d71628.2¢10.5¢-62.8%$75-$127
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presi…Noin 15d35226.0¢18.5¢-28.8%$65-$26
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yesin 24d9959.0¢6.5¢-28.3%$64-$25
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Yesin 208d32516.0¢19.5¢+21.9%$63+$11
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Noin 24d6658.6¢80.5¢+37.3%$53+$14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yesin 24d34630.0¢14.5¢-51.7%$50-$54
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Noin 209d12130.0¢38.5¢+28.3%$46+$10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yesin 208d6372.0¢73.5¢+2.1%$46+$1
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?No11123.0¢27.0¢+17.4%$30+$4
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Yesin 24d1,25216.2¢1.8¢-89.2%$22-$181
Netanyahu out by June 30?Yesin 24d1373.3¢2.9¢-9.5%$4-$0
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?Yesin 151d2344.0¢3.3¢-92.6%$1-$9

Realized history

Closed positions via avg-cost matching
Market · OutcomeQtyAvg costAvg exitRealizedViaClosed
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Yes19,11399.2¢100.0¢+$153resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?No3,9951.8¢0.0¢-$73resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Yes345,24199.6¢100.0¢+$1.2Kresolution2026-06-03 23:08 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes4,06267.2¢37.0¢-$1.2Ktrade2026-06-03 22:13 UTC
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by…No1,51138.3¢90.0¢+$781trade2026-06-03 20:17 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?No1,91045.8¢90.7¢+$858trade2026-06-02 18:31 UTC
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No6,18696.1¢97.2¢+$71trade2026-06-02 13:20 UTC
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No33996.1¢97.4¢+$4trade2026-06-02 13:19 UTC
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes93577.0¢73.0¢-$37trade2026-06-01 12:26 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes1,35420.9¢1.7¢-$260trade2026-05-31 15:21 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes4,46520.9¢1.4¢-$872trade2026-05-31 10:45 UTC
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Yes1,99413.6¢2.0¢-$231trade2026-05-31 10:45 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No3,04524.3¢30.0¢+$172trade2026-05-31 10:28 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Yes1,23254.1¢3.5¢-$623trade2026-05-31 10:02 UTC
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Yes1,20913.6¢2.5¢-$133trade2026-05-31 02:03 UTC
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Yes519,60599.9¢100.0¢+$520resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?Yes13,7249.5¢0.0¢-$1.3Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No85,83872.1¢100.0¢+$24.0Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by…Yes35,27613.4¢0.0¢-$4.7Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?Yes3,7295.3¢0.0¢-$198resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No3,99560.2¢100.0¢+$1.6Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?No13,56786.5¢100.0¢+$1.8Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ma…Yes93018.6¢0.0¢-$173resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Yes58,63813.6¢0.0¢-$8.0Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?Yes2786.8¢0.0¢-$19resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran…Yes64531.8¢100.0¢+$439resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May…No93871.9¢100.0¢+$263resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Yes13,84611.5¢0.0¢-$1.6Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes72,62820.9¢0.0¢-$15.2Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by Ma…No1,42395.1¢100.0¢+$70resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?No62897.4¢100.0¢+$16resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by…No23,43577.4¢100.0¢+$5.3Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran…No8,37849.1¢0.0¢-$4.1Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?No8,37191.7¢100.0¢+$698resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?Yes11831.0¢0.0¢-$36resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?Yes1,22512.6¢0.0¢-$155resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Yes16,73854.1¢0.0¢-$9.1Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States block…Yes73920.0¢0.0¢-$148resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by Ma…Yes27,9495.4¢0.0¢-$1.5Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?No1,765,6650.2¢0.0¢-$3.6Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?No32,77480.7¢100.0¢+$6.3Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?No51891.0¢100.0¢+$47resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No23,56857.7¢100.0¢+$10.0Kresolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Yes1,05031.2¢0.0¢-$328resolution2026-05-31 00:00 UTC
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Yes10,76613.6¢2.6¢-$1.2Ktrade2026-05-30 23:32 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes4,60920.9¢3.1¢-$822trade2026-05-30 12:58 UTC
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by…Yes1,54813.4¢2.5¢-$169trade2026-05-30 12:04 UTC
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Yes9,08013.6¢4.2¢-$854trade2026-05-30 12:03 UTC
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Yes3,05899.8¢100.0¢+$6resolution2026-05-30 00:00 UTC
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?No2,11999.8¢100.0¢+$4resolution2026-05-30 00:00 UTC
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Recent trades

Last 50 ingested fills
Time UTCSideSizePriceMarket
2026-06-03 22:13 UTCSELL4,06237.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes
2026-06-03 21:45 UTCSELL2,69698.7¢Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?No
2026-06-03 20:27 UTCBUY65867.0¢US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Yes
2026-06-03 20:25 UTCSELL3,38588.0¢New pandemic in 2026?No
2026-06-03 20:21 UTCBUY1,63438.0¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December…Yes
2026-06-03 20:17 UTCSELL1,51190.0¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No
2026-06-03 20:16 UTCBUY64427.0¢US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes
2026-06-03 20:14 UTCBUY21626.0¢US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes
2026-06-03 20:12 UTCBUY67097.1¢Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No
2026-06-02 18:31 UTCSELL1,91090.7¢Iran closes its airspace by June 15?No
2026-06-02 14:17 UTCBUY69,97499.5¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No
2026-06-02 13:20 UTCSELL6,18697.2¢Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No
2026-06-02 13:19 UTCSELL33997.4¢Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No
2026-06-02 13:16 UTCBUY1,04940.0¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No
2026-06-01 17:53 UTCBUY6,38416.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes
2026-06-01 17:48 UTCBUY3,92318.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes
2026-06-01 17:45 UTCBUY5,2008.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes
2026-06-01 16:58 UTCBUY11153.2¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes
2026-06-01 15:19 UTCBUY1,40052.9¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes
2026-06-01 14:57 UTCBUY1,57350.0¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes
2026-06-01 12:26 UTCSELL93573.0¢MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes
2026-05-31 15:21 UTCSELL1,3541.7¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-31 15:19 UTCBUY85876.3¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30,…No
2026-05-31 10:45 UTCSELL4,4651.4¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-31 10:45 UTCSELL1,9942.0¢US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-31 10:28 UTCSELL3,04530.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No
2026-05-31 10:02 UTCSELL1,2323.5¢Iran closes its airspace by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-31 02:03 UTCSELL1,2092.5¢US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-30 23:32 UTCSELL10,7662.6¢US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-30 18:53 UTCBUY56,75099.9¢Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?YesResolved
2026-05-30 12:58 UTCSELL4,6093.1¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-30 12:04 UTCSELL1,5482.5¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31,…YesResolved
2026-05-30 12:03 UTCSELL9,0804.2¢US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-29 20:24 UTCBUY13,8485.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-29 20:18 UTCBUY3,89140.1¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No
2026-05-29 20:17 UTCSELL4,1523.6¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31,…YesResolved
2026-05-29 20:16 UTCSELL4,1357.4¢US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-29 19:46 UTCBUY26278.0¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30,…No
2026-05-29 19:41 UTCSELL16,1107.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-29 18:52 UTCBUY1,43588.2¢Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-29 18:52 UTCBUY7,48186.3¢Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-29 17:02 UTCBUY715.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-29 17:01 UTCBUY3,59315.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-29 17:00 UTCBUY1,51040.4¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes
2026-05-29 16:24 UTCSELL13270.0¢Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No
2026-05-29 15:46 UTCSELL4614.0¢Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-29 15:39 UTCBUY3,28376.9¢US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-29 15:27 UTCBUY1,85859.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No
2026-05-29 15:26 UTCBUY2,72224.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No
2026-05-29 15:21 UTCBUY21477.0¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30,…No