trader profile

Valen9

0x162f6fff88a52864f2ecc9833e58089d5254798d
Open MV$229.3K26 positions
Open PnL+$7.1K3.2% on basis
Realized PnL-$49.5K63 closed
Hit rate48%Wilson lower 36%
Volume observed$1.38M379 trades · 119 markets
Current rank—last trade 11d ago

Open book

Mark-to-market positions from data-api/positions
Market · OutcomeSizeAvg costCurrentΔ%MVPnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yesin 24d141,15350.8¢51.5¢+1.3%$72.7K+$931
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yesin 55d46,80951.9¢67.0¢+29.1%$31.4K+$7.1K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?Yes52,49848.8¢44.5¢-8.7%$23.4K-$2.2K
Iran leadership change by June 30?Noin 24d18,41585.7¢90.5¢+5.6%$16.7K+$887
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yesin 9d26,02450.7¢49.5¢-2.4%$12.9K-$320
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yesin 1d19,17044.5¢48.0¢+7.8%$9.2K+$667
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Yes13,00070.1¢67.0¢-4.4%$8.7K-$400
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?Yes10,00082.0¢84.5¢+3.0%$8.5K+$250
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yesin 208d10,22244.2¢70.5¢+59.6%$7.2K+$2.7K
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade…Yesin 24d9,41083.6¢73.5¢-12.1%$6.9K-$949
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May…No6,64482.4¢82.0¢-0.5%$5.4K-$28
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Noin 24d7,26855.3¢68.5¢+23.7%$5.0K+$953
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Noin 24d5,00085.0¢81.5¢-4.1%$4.1K-$176
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Yes5,00079.2¢76.5¢-3.4%$3.8K-$135
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June…Yes3,93187.5¢67.0¢-23.4%$2.6K-$806
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?Yes5,13564.8¢50.5¢-22.0%$2.6K-$733
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Yes3,00089.0¢78.5¢-11.8%$2.4K-$315
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Yesin 208d2,71362.0¢78.5¢+26.6%$2.1K+$448
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Yesin 24d2,00087.9¢64.4¢-26.7%$1.3K-$470
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?Noin 24d1,52176.2¢82.0¢+7.6%$1.2K+$88
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?Noin 208d1,94673.0¢60.5¢-17.1%$1.2K-$243
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United S…Yesin 24d3,5493.6¢1.2¢-67.1%$43-$87
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s is…Noin 24d1373.5¢97.0¢+31.8%$12+$3
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?Yes1182.0¢76.5¢-6.7%$8-$1
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Noin 24d1076.0¢72.5¢-4.6%$7-$0
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?Noin 24d592.4¢97.6¢+5.6%$5+$0

Realized history

Closed positions via avg-cost matching
Market · OutcomeQtyAvg costAvg exitRealizedViaClosed
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?No15544.0¢0.0¢-$68resolution2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ma…Yes8,73316.1¢2.9¢-$1.2Ktrade2026-05-24 22:10 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes53,60415.4¢23.0¢+$4.1Ktrade2026-05-24 20:11 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes23,27115.4¢27.0¢+$2.7Ktrade2026-05-24 19:24 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes15,18015.4¢27.0¢+$1.8Ktrade2026-05-24 19:11 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Yes19,68333.3¢11.0¢-$4.4Ktrade2026-05-24 18:07 UTC
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No12,78790.4¢92.3¢+$249trade2026-05-24 15:17 UTC
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No19,76190.4¢94.0¢+$717trade2026-05-24 10:01 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes14449.6¢47.0¢-$4trade2026-05-24 09:29 UTC
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No6,00090.4¢93.0¢+$158trade2026-05-24 05:35 UTC
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait…Yes11,4662.2¢6.4¢+$478trade2026-05-24 00:02 UTC
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by…Yes4,50022.0¢26.1¢+$184trade2026-05-23 22:48 UTC
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?No3029.0¢2.2¢-$8trade2026-05-23 22:05 UTC
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?No544.0¢4.9¢-$2trade2026-05-23 22:05 UTC
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No7,56490.4¢93.0¢+$199trade2026-05-23 21:57 UTC
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait…Yes2,7992.2¢5.9¢+$103trade2026-05-23 21:55 UTC
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Yes3,25614.3¢13.1¢-$38trade2026-05-23 21:37 UTC
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by Ma…Yes9,6674.9¢11.4¢+$626trade2026-05-23 21:33 UTC
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Yes11614.3¢23.5¢+$11trade2026-05-23 21:25 UTC
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Yes94414.3¢26.3¢+$113trade2026-05-23 21:24 UTC
Iran leadership change by May 31?No1,42887.0¢97.5¢+$150trade2026-05-23 21:02 UTC
Iran leadership change by May 31?No32987.0¢98.1¢+$37trade2026-05-23 21:01 UTC
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No16,61285.2¢97.0¢+$2.0Ktrade2026-05-23 20:21 UTC
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?No1,48049.0¢19.5¢-$437trade2026-05-23 14:46 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes21349.6¢34.0¢-$33trade2026-05-23 10:39 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?No2364.7¢28.1¢+$55trade2026-05-23 10:09 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes3,74115.4¢16.0¢+$21trade2026-05-23 10:05 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes13,61849.1¢48.0¢-$150trade2026-05-23 10:04 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes8,96449.1¢49.0¢-$9trade2026-05-23 09:56 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes20049.6¢34.0¢-$31trade2026-05-23 09:49 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes58,46826.9¢12.0¢-$8.7Ktrade2026-05-22 22:48 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Yes1,0907.0¢1.0¢-$65trade2026-05-22 21:22 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes3,28849.1¢55.0¢+$194trade2026-05-22 20:58 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes33,99826.9¢24.0¢-$993trade2026-05-22 18:17 UTC
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States block…Yes11,9947.0¢0.0¢-$840resolution2026-05-22 00:00 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ma…Yes10016.1¢6.0¢-$10trade2026-05-21 22:36 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No5,30174.0¢69.0¢-$264trade2026-05-21 20:51 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No61674.0¢70.0¢-$24trade2026-05-21 20:43 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Yes19,5495.8¢4.0¢-$349trade2026-05-21 20:37 UTC
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May…Yes80978.0¢97.2¢+$155trade2026-05-20 18:11 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Ma…Yes23,47122.1¢3.6¢-$4.3Ktrade2026-05-19 15:53 UTC
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?No6,42089.0¢100.0¢+$705resolution2026-05-15 00:00 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?Yes50,1760.1¢0.0¢-$62resolution2026-05-11 00:00 UTC
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?No4,25290.6¢95.0¢+$189trade2026-05-10 15:18 UTC
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Yes68,2467.8¢1.1¢-$4.6Ktrade2026-05-10 09:38 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?Yes6,0541.0¢0.0¢-$61resolution2026-05-08 00:00 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Yes8,58210.0¢16.5¢+$558trade2026-05-07 20:38 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Yes10,00010.0¢18.4¢+$843trade2026-05-07 20:17 UTC
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Yes1610.0¢17.6¢+$1trade2026-05-07 19:35 UTC
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?No8,19883.0¢90.1¢+$583trade2026-05-07 19:34 UTC
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Recent trades

Last 50 ingested fills
Time UTCSideSizePriceMarket
2026-05-25 22:02 UTCSELL3,91736.0¢Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of t…YesResolved
2026-05-25 20:06 UTCSELL9,94970.0¢Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes
2026-05-25 14:20 UTCSELL8,00038.7¢US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Yes
2026-05-25 13:10 UTCBUY12,32733.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-25 13:02 UTCBUY17,42034.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-25 12:38 UTCBUY4,88232.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-25 10:44 UTCSELL12,37380.0¢Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No
2026-05-25 10:16 UTCSELL5,00010.5¢Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31,…YesResolved
2026-05-25 08:24 UTCBUY99,8559.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-24 22:10 UTCSELL8,7332.9¢Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?YesResolved
2026-05-24 21:11 UTCSELL28,00081.0¢Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No
2026-05-24 20:27 UTCBUY4,12892.0¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No
2026-05-24 20:27 UTCBUY35062.0¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No
2026-05-24 20:17 UTCBUY98855.0¢Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?Yes
2026-05-24 20:14 UTCSELL5,09434.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes
2026-05-24 20:11 UTCSELL309,71823.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-24 19:24 UTCSELL23,27127.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-24 19:11 UTCSELL15,18027.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-24 19:07 UTCBUY1,67283.0¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?No
2026-05-24 18:39 UTCSELL48,78711.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-24 18:07 UTCSELL43,72311.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-24 17:10 UTCBUY833.0¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No
2026-05-24 17:10 UTCBUY99688.0¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No
2026-05-24 15:26 UTCBUY11,91757.0¢Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?Yes
2026-05-24 15:17 UTCSELL16,67592.3¢Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No
2026-05-24 13:17 UTCBUY20,00057.0¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?No
2026-05-24 10:28 UTCBUY25028.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?YesResolved
2026-05-24 10:01 UTCSELL19,76194.0¢Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No
2026-05-24 09:29 UTCSELL14447.0¢US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes
2026-05-24 05:35 UTCBUY32384.0¢US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes
2026-05-24 05:35 UTCSELL6,00093.0¢Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No
2026-05-24 04:57 UTCSELL8,19432.1¢US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-24 00:08 UTCBUY2,21964.7¢Iran closes its airspace by June 30?No
2026-05-24 00:05 UTCSELL2,0000.8¢Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes
2026-05-24 00:02 UTCSELL11,4666.4¢Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormu…YesResolved
2026-05-23 23:36 UTCBUY28269.0¢Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-23 23:35 UTCBUY2,41089.0¢Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of t…Yes
2026-05-23 23:35 UTCBUY3,91773.9¢Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of t…YesResolved
2026-05-23 22:48 UTCSELL9,94726.1¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?Yes
2026-05-23 22:14 UTCBUY4,50022.0¢US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?Yes
2026-05-23 22:05 UTCSELL302.2¢Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?NoResolved
2026-05-23 22:05 UTCSELL1,9524.9¢Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?No
2026-05-23 21:57 UTCSELL7,56493.0¢Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No
2026-05-23 21:55 UTCSELL2,7995.9¢Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormu…YesResolved
2026-05-23 21:51 UTCSELL2,13610.0¢US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-23 21:37 UTCSELL10,88013.1¢US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-23 21:34 UTCSELL2,26264.4¢Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-23 21:33 UTCSELL13,92911.4¢Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?YesResolved
2026-05-23 21:32 UTCBUY5,82754.0¢Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?NoResolved
2026-05-23 21:25 UTCSELL11623.5¢US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?YesResolved